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Game Recap
DET3
CGY1
DET beat CGY 3-1, with the chances close: 2.67 expected goals to 2.67. CGY outshot DET 34 to 25. C. Talbot stopped 33 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| CGY | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 1st 8:27DETD. Larkin0.16 xG
- 1st 19:14DETS. Edvinsson0.05 xG
- 3rd 8:34CGYN. KadriPP0.09 xG
- 3rd 19:06DETA. CoppEN0.94 xG
Team Stats
DETCGY
25Shots on goal34
2.67Expected goals2.67
50Shot attempts79
245v5 shots on goal26
0/0Power play1/2
17Hits24
23Blocked shots13
4Penalty minutes0
15Giveaways10
6Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 2.67 xGCGY 2.67 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:47 | 0:00 |
| A. Copp | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:04 | 0:00 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:15 | 0:00 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:00 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:00 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 10:39 | 0:00 |
| D. Shine | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:35 | 0:00 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:21 | 0:00 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:49 | 0:00 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:44 | 0:00 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:36 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 26:51 | 0:00 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 23:05 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:57 | 0:00 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:47 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kadri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:04 | 2:34 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:00 | 2:27 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:29 | 2:27 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:25 | 1:03 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:01 | 0:00 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:37 | 2:25 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:27 | 1:01 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:09 | 1:01 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:34 | 0:00 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:06 | 0:00 |
| C. Bishop | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5:59 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:23 | 2:28 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:34 | 0:54 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:23 | 0:00 |
| T. Barrie | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:19 | 1:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:40 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 2.9, CGY 3.0 | DET 3, CGY 1 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | DET 27.3, CGY 30.4 | DET 25, CGY 34 |
| Win chance | CGY 52% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.4 | 4 | 0.88 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| DET D. Larkin | 3.3 | 3 | 0.97 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.7 | 2 | 0.76 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.7 | 3 | 0.68 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.5 | 1 | 0.57 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.4 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.3 | 4 | 0.58 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.3 | 2 | 0.92 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 2.1 | 2 | 0.86 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 2.0 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 2.0 | 4 | 0.47 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.9 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.9 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.9 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.9 | 3 | 0.57 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.8 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.6 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY T. Barrie | 1.5 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.5 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.3 | 3 | 0.43 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.2 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 1.0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 1.0 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY C. Bishop | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 0.9 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.4 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.