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Game Recap
DET2
COL5
COL beat DET 5-2, with the chances close: 3.59 expected goals to 2.99. D. Toews led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Blackwood stopped 21 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| COL | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
- 1st 6:00DETJ. CompherPP0.26 xG
- 1st 6:44COLC. Makar0.01 xG
- 1st 12:52COLV. Nichushkin0.19 xG
- 2nd 4:39COLD. ToewsPP0.06 xG
- 3rd 8:34COLN. MacKinnonPP0.09 xG
- 3rd 16:53DETA. Watson0.49 xG
- 3rd 17:56COLL. O'ConnorEN0.93 xG
Team Stats
DETCOL
23Shots on goal28
2.99Expected goals3.59
58Shot attempts63
195v5 shots on goal24
1/2Power play2/2
26Hits18
21Blocked shots19
4Penalty minutes4
10Giveaways12
4Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 2.99 xGCOL 3.59 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Compher | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:51 | 1:13 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 17:57 | 1:17 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:17 | 1:20 |
| A. Watson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:34 | 0:00 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:22 | 2:23 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:02 | 2:16 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:54 | 0:00 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:06 | 2:25 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:02 | 2:20 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:51 | 1:24 |
| C. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:07 | 0:00 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:54 | 0:00 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:56 | 1:20 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 2 | 25:11 | 2:20 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:53 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:21 | 0:02 |
| W. Lagesson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:13 | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:27 | 3:26 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 18:24 | 2:52 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:09 | 3:26 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:39 | 2:41 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:28 | 0:34 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:28 | 0:00 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:45 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:00 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 0:00 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:00 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:26 | 0:00 |
| D. Toews | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 24:22 | 0:45 |
| C. Makar | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 22:52 | 2:41 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 19:34 | 0:00 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:29 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:49 | 0:00 |
| K. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:31 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 23 | 21 | 2 | .913 | 59:41 | Win |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 2.8, COL 3.9 | DET 2, COL 5 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | DET 25.3, COL 31.2 | DET 23, COL 28 |
| Win chance | COL 67% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 3.9 | 1 | 1.55 | 2 | 41% | 1 |
| COL C. Makar | 3.0 | 5 | 1.21 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.7 | 2 | 0.79 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.7 | 2 | 0.97 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.6 | 2 | 0.97 | 1 | 38% | 1 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.5 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.2 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.2 | 1 | 0.81 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 1.9 | 4 | 0.74 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 1.9 | 0 | 0.75 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.9 | 2 | 0.64 | 3 | 12% | 1 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.7 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.6 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.5 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.4 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET C. Smith | 1.4 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL J. Drouin | 1.4 | 2 | 0.77 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL C. Coyle | 1.2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.2 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 3 | 0.40 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| COL K. Middleton | 1.1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.0 | 3 | 0.29 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL R. Lindgren | 0.9 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET A. Watson | 0.7 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| DET W. Lagesson | 0.6 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.