DAL beat DET 4-1, with the chances close: 3.02 expected goals to 2.67. DET outshot DAL 34 to 25. J. Robertson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Rasmussen had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. J. Oettinger stopped 33 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| DAL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 5:26DALM. Blümel0.39 xG
- 1st 13:05DALJ. RobertsonPP0.27 xG
- 1st 14:18DALM. Bourque0.07 xG
- 3rd 12:01DETM. Kasper0.10 xG
- 3rd 14:09DALW. Johnston0.19 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 2.67 xGDAL 3.02 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:53 | 3:35 |
| M. Kasper | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:31 | 3:30 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:04 | 3:34 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 15:44 | 3:30 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:49 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:24 | 0:47 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:01 | 0:46 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:48 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:19 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:13 | 0:18 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:15 | 0:15 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:34 | 0:21 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:36 | 3:20 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:27 | 0:09 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:31 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:42 | 1:09 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:07 | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:22 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:15 | 0:22 |
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:40 | 0:22 |
| M. Bourque | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:49 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:02 | 0:00 |
| M. Blümel | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:21 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:21 | 0:00 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:26 | 0:00 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:54 | 0:00 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:53 | 0:22 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:40 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:20 | 0:22 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 20:33 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:55 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:30 | 0:00 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:02 | 0:00 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 34 | 33 | 1 | .971 | 59:50 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 2.6, DAL 3.5 | DET 1, DAL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | DET 24.6, DAL 31.5 | DET 34, DAL 25 |
| Win chance | DAL 64% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.8 | 1 | 0.88 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.8 | 2 | 1.07 | 2 | 35% | 1 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 2.4 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.4 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.4 | 3 | 0.74 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.3 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 2.2 | 1 | 0.86 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.2 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 2.1 | 3 | 0.93 | 2 | 33% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 2.1 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.8 | 4 | 0.45 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 1.8 | 3 | 0.72 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.7 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.6 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.4 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.3 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL M. Blümel | 1.2 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.2 | 4 | 0.27 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.2 | 3 | 0.27 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.2 | 3 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.0 | 4 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL B. Smith | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.7 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.7 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.