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Game Recap
DET2
DAL3
DAL beat DET 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.82 expected goals to 3.45. W. Johnston led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Seider had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. J. Oettinger stopped 22 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| DAL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 8:57DALW. Johnston0.04 xG
- 2nd 2:19DALM. BuntingPP0.29 xG
- 3rd 6:51DETS. Edvinsson0.10 xG
- 3rd 16:34DETL. Raymond0.67 xG
- OT 2:06DALT. Harley0.15 xG
Team Stats
DETDAL
24Shots on goal24
3.45Expected goals2.82
52Shot attempts58
155v5 shots on goal15
0/3Power play1/4
20Hits21
17Blocked shots12
12Penalty minutes10
13Giveaways12
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 3.45 xGDAL 2.82 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:40 | 4:36 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:37 | 4:36 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:05 | 1:25 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:20 | 3:31 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22:03 | 2:29 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:28 | 4:35 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:34 | 1:22 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:46 | 1:23 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Leonard | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:10 | 0:00 |
| D. Shine | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:33 | 0:00 |
| S. Dries | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:54 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 27:44 | 5:26 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 22:14 | 0:34 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:23 | 0:03 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11:43 | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:52 | 4:28 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22:11 | 5:20 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:42 | 3:08 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:58 | 3:09 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:38 | 3:09 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:42 | 4:29 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:11 | 0:00 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:27 | 4:28 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:12 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:32 | 0:00 |
| A. Hyry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:29 | 0:00 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7:33 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:43 | 2:59 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:56 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 25:39 | 4:38 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:42 | 2:17 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:07 | 0:00 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:58 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 24 | 22 | 2 | .917 | 61:52 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DET
Line 1P. Kane13:53J. Compher14:26A. DeBrincat14:38
Line 2L. Raymond12:07D. Perron12:01M. Kasper9:42
Line 3M. Appleton7:16D. Shine7:10S. Dries5:56
Line 4J. Riemsdyk8:49J. Leonard9:10E. Finnie11:25
Pair 1B. Chiarot15:50J. Faulk17:07
Pair 2M. Seider16:53S. Edvinsson15:40
Pair 3J. Bernard-Docker9:29A. Johansson9:13
DAL
Line 1J. Robertson14:49W. Johnston12:56M. Bourque14:27
Line 2C. Blackwell10:22J. Hryckowian11:39M. Bunting10:03
Line 3J. Benn8:59M. Duchene10:34S. Steel9:42
Line 4N. Bastian7:19O. Bäck7:39A. Hyry7:38
Pair 1T. Myers14:22L. Bichsel15:25
Pair 2E. Lindell13:42M. Heiskanen16:10
Pair 3T. Harley13:56N. Lundkvist11:03
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 2.6, DAL 3.3 | DET 2, DAL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | DET 24.9, DAL 26.8 | DET 24, DAL 24 |
| Win chance | DAL 61% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.1 | 5 | 1.10 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.0 | 2 | 0.84 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.4 | 2 | 0.88 | 2 | 35% | 1 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.4 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.1 | 3 | 0.84 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| DET M. Seider | 2.1 | 6 | 0.55 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 2.0 | 0 | 0.52 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.0 | 2 | 0.73 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bunting | 1.8 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.8 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET J. Faulk | 1.7 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.7 | 1 | 0.80 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.7 | 3 | 0.51 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.6 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| DAL A. Hyry | 1.4 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET S. Dries | 1.4 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| DET D. Perron | 1.3 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.2 | 3 | 0.31 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 1.2 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL T. Myers | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET J. Riemsdyk | 1.1 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.1 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET J. Leonard | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET M. Appleton | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL N. Bastian | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET J. Bernard-Docker | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET D. Shine | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.