DET beat FLA 5-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.45 expected goals to 4.05. FLA outshot DET 43 to 20. D. Larkin led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). S. Bennett had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. C. Talbot stopped 41 of 43.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| FLA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 8:48DETJ. BerggrenPP0.05 xG
- 1st 11:01FLAA. Lundell0.15 xG
- 2nd 7:52DETD. LarkinPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 8:21FLAE. Rodrigues0.10 xG
- 2nd 13:44DETP. KanePP0.09 xG
- 2nd 15:41DETM. Kasper0.04 xG
- 3rd 18:38DETD. LarkinEN0.94 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 2.45 xGFLA 4.05 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:42 | 4:31 |
| P. Kane | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:43 | 4:15 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:42 | 4:25 |
| M. Kasper | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:49 | 0:16 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:41 | 4:15 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:05 | 1:23 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:10 | 1:23 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:09 | 1:23 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:36 | 0:00 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:32 | 1:23 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 10:06 | 0:00 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:26 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 26:38 | 4:31 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:19 | 1:29 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:57 | 0:00 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:11 | 0:16 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 18:02 | 0:00 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:44 | 3:24 |
| A. Lundell | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:44 | 1:13 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:56 | 2:01 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 11:30 | 2:02 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:24 | 3:38 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 21:41 | 3:38 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 20:11 | 4:27 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:57 | 2:02 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 10:31 | 0:00 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:49 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:57 | 0:00 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:14 | 0:15 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:09 | 0:15 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:29 | 2:57 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:19 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:06 | 2:28 |
| T. Bjornfot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 15 | 11 | 4 | .733 | 35:41 | Loss |
| S. Knight | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 | 22:02 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 2.8, FLA 3.4 | DET 5, FLA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | DET 25.1, FLA 31.9 | DET 20, FLA 43 |
| Win chance | FLA 60% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 3.0 | 2 | 1.13 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.8 | 5 | 1.11 | 0 | 44% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.8 | 3 | 0.84 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.6 | 7 | 0.69 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.5 | 1 | 1.17 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.5 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.4 | 3 | 0.78 | 3 | 29% | 2 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.4 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.2 | 2 | 0.72 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.9 | 3 | 0.60 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.8 | 2 | 0.52 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 1.8 | 3 | 0.75 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.7 | 3 | 0.46 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.6 | 0 | 0.51 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.3 | 5 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.3 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.2 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.2 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.1 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA T. Bjornfot | 0.7 | 2 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.