FLA beat DET 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.33 expected goals to 1.87. FLA outshot DET 31 to 23. G. Forsling led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Gadjovich had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. S. Bobrovsky stopped 22 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| FLA | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 6:13DETA. DeBrincat0.21 xG
- 2nd 2:58FLAE. RodriguesPP0.18 xG
- 2nd 8:46FLAM. Samoskevich0.13 xG
- 2nd 16:21FLAB. Marchand0.20 xG
- 3rd 14:03FLAA. Barkov0.07 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 1.87 xGFLA 3.33 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:11 | 0:57 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:26 | 0:51 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:53 | 0:52 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:52 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:51 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:41 | 0:48 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:51 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:19 | 0:00 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:10 | 0:45 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:31 | 0:49 |
| C. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:42 |
| A. Watson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:31 | 0:44 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 19:48 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 23:53 | 0:57 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:09 | 1:30 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:34 | 0:19 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:45 | 0:27 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:18 | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Rodrigues | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:33 | 0:26 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:10 | 1:10 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:35 | 1:22 |
| A. Barkov | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:24 | 0:51 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:08 | 1:09 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:13 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:27 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:24 | 0:00 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:46 | 0:25 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:12 | 0:44 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:26 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:41 | 1:22 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:14 | 0:13 |
| J. Megna | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:51 | 0:00 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 17:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 23 | 22 | 1 | .957 | 60:00 | Win |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 2.7, FLA 3.5 | DET 1, FLA 4 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | DET 24.8, FLA 32.4 | DET 23, FLA 31 |
| Win chance | FLA 62% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.8 | 1 | 1.01 | 1 | 40% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.8 | 3 | 0.69 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.7 | 1 | 0.78 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.4 | 4 | 0.73 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.4 | 1 | 0.77 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.4 | 4 | 0.45 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.3 | 3 | 1.06 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| FLA S. Jones | 2.2 | 3 | 0.54 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.1 | 3 | 0.52 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.1 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.1 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.9 | 3 | 0.43 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.8 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.6 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.5 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.4 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.2 | 0 | 0.20 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| DET C. Smith | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.0 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 1.0 | 4 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET J. Petry | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA N. Sturm | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA J. Megna | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET A. Watson | 0.5 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.