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Game Recap
DET3
MIN2
DET beat MIN 3-2, with the chances close: 1.56 expected goals to 1.79. MIN outshot DET 24 to 16. S. Edvinsson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Talbot stopped 22 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| MIN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 7:17MINM. RossiPP0.07 xG
- 1st 11:11MINJ. Lauko0.13 xG
- 2nd 10:12DETV. Tarasenko0.10 xG
- 2nd 13:12DETS. Edvinsson0.02 xG
- 3rd 11:35DETS. Edvinsson0.06 xG
Team Stats
DETMIN
16Shots on goal24
1.56Expected goals1.79
41Shot attempts63
145v5 shots on goal18
0/1Power play1/2
25Hits21
16Blocked shots13
6Penalty minutes4
18Giveaways16
2Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 1.56 xGMIN 1.79 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:06 | 0:49 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:46 | 0:59 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 16:13 | 0:56 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:32 | 1:04 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 14:33 | 0:41 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:26 | 1:19 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:13 | 1:11 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:36 | 1:01 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:00 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:24 | 0:00 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:03 | 0:00 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | +2 | 2 | 21:58 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:32 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:49 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 24:59 | 1:11 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:16 | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Rossi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:34 | 2:44 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:02 | 2:44 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:40 | 0:00 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:48 | 0:02 |
| J. Lauko | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:33 | 0:00 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 21:12 | 2:44 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:49 | 0:37 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:00 | 1:01 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 2:19 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:00 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:57 | 0:37 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 19:09 | 1:02 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 26:40 | 2:18 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 20:07 | 0:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:17 | 0:37 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:26 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 16 | 13 | 3 | .813 | 57:54 | Loss |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 3.0, MIN 3.1 | DET 3, MIN 2 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | DET 29.2, MIN 28.9 | DET 16, MIN 24 |
| Win chance | MIN 52% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.5 | 3 | 0.94 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 3.3 | 0 | 0.91 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.9 | 0 | 0.78 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.7 | 1 | 0.82 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.5 | 2 | 0.94 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.4 | 1 | 0.91 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 2.2 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 2.0 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.9 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.9 | 1 | 0.69 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.8 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.7 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.6 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.6 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.6 | 0 | 0.42 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.5 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.5 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN L. Ohgren | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.4 | 0 | 0.46 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.3 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.3 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.2 | 3 | 0.31 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.33 | 2 | 8% | 2 |
| DET J. Veleno | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN J. Lauko | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.7 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.