Game Recap: DET 3, NJD 4, November 24, 2025

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Game Recap

DET3

FinalMon, Nov 24, 2025Every game that night

NJD4

NJD beat DET 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.27 expected goals to 4.86. DET outshot NJD 35 to 20. T. Meier led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. van Riemsdyk had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Markstrom stopped 32 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DET	1	1	1	3
NJD	3	1	0	4

1st 12:54NJDT. Meier0.07 xG
1st 16:33DETA. DeBrincat0.14 xG
1st 17:58NJDN. Hischier0.03 xG
1st 19:04NJDC. Glass0.14 xG
2nd 1:30DETJ. van RiemsdykPP0.27 xG
2nd 8:38NJDC. Brown0.16 xG
3rd 10:12DETD. Larkin0.34 xG

Team Stats

DETNJD

35Shots on goal20

4.86Expected goals2.27

84Shot attempts50

285v5 shots on goal20

1/3Power play0/1

22Hits25

20Blocked shots19

23Penalty minutes15

16Giveaways11

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 4.86 xGNJD 2.27 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET35 on goal, 3 scored

NJD20 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	0	1	2	2	1	-1	2	21:25	2:50
P. Kane	RW	0	1	1	5	0	1	-2	0	20:52	2:48
D. Larkin	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	12	20:40	2:54
L. Raymond	LW	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	2	18:51	2:51
E. Finnie	C	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	16:27	2:16
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	1	0	1	5	2	0	0	0	14:40	2:11
A. Copp	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	13:11	2:08
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	7	15:39	0:00
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:09	0:07
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	11:58	0:09
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:58	0:06
N. Danielson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:44	2:11
M. Seider	D	0	2	2	3	1	7	+2	0	25:04	2:55
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-2	0	22:12	0:08
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	20:23	0:00
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:44	2:16
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	-3	0	15:51	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	12:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	20	16	4	.800	57:50	Loss
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Hischier	C	1	1	2	1	3	3	+1	0	21:15	0:00
C. Brown	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	17:42	0:00
T. Meier	RW	1	1	2	4	4	2	+1	0	17:16	1:03
J. Bratt	LW	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	2	17:15	0:58
D. Mercer	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:20	1:01
S. Noesen	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	7	11:05	1:01
C. Glass	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	10:50	0:00
E. Dadonov	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	13:41	0:57
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:31	0:59
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	12:39	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	12:30	0:59
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	11:35	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	22:07	0:56
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	2	23:27	0:00
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	22:50	1:02
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	21:25	1:04
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	18:16	0:00
C. White	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	11:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	35	32	3	.914	59:42	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DET

Line 1P. Kane15:36A. DeBrincat16:07J. Compher15:21

Line 2D. Larkin14:57E. Finnie14:11L. Raymond13:50

Line 3J. Riemsdyk10:19A. Copp10:23J. Berggren10:52

Line 4M. Kasper10:29M. Appleton10:41N. Danielson8:33

Pair 1B. Chiarot21:23M. Seider19:59

Pair 2T. Hamonic14:14A. Johansson18:45

Pair 3J. Bernard-Docker11:42A. Sandin-Pellikka14:28

NJD

Line 1T. Meier15:29N. Hischier17:28J. Bratt14:24

Line 2E. Dadonov12:44C. Brown13:27C. Glass10:24

Line 3D. Mercer11:58O. Palat10:39A. Gritsyuk12:32

Line 4S. Noesen9:50P. Cotter11:35L. Glendening10:10

Pair 1L. Hughes17:57S. Nemec19:53

Pair 2J. Siegenthaler19:39D. Hamilton17:51

Pair 3B. Dillon14:26C. White11:24

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 3.1, NJD 3.2	DET 3, NJD 4
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	DET 28.1, NJD 28.3	DET 35, NJD 20
Win chance	NJD 51%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD T. Meier	3.1	4	0.80	2	34%	1
DET A. DeBrincat	3.1	2	0.80	1	31%	1
DET D. Larkin	2.9	4	0.92	1	34%	1
NJD D. Hamilton	2.6	0	0.64	0	15%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.5	0	1.04	1	28%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.4	1	0.96	2	34%	1
DET P. Kane	2.3	5	0.72	1	23%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.3	4	0.85	1	27%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.2	1	0.46	0	18%	0
NJD L. Hughes	2.0	1	0.65	1	8%	0
NJD D. Mercer	2.0	1	0.61	1	28%	0
DET M. Seider	1.9	3	0.46	2	6%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.5	2	0.44	2	17%	1
NJD S. Nemec	1.5	1	0.48	0	10%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.5	1	0.41	1	19%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.5	2	0.40	1	17%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.5	1	0.31	0	16%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.3	2	0.30	1	12%	1
DET N. Danielson	1.2	1	0.30	0	11%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.2	1	0.22	0	6%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	1.2	0	0.33	0	8%	0
DET J. Compher	1.2	3	0.36	0	15%	0
DET M. Appleton	1.1	0	0.27	0	10%	0
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.1	5	0.36	1	14%	1
NJD P. Cotter	1.1	1	0.28	0	15%	0
NJD E. Dadonov	1.1	2	0.36	0	15%	0
DET T. Hamonic	1.1	0	0.15	0	4%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.1	3	0.34	0	15%	0
DET A. Copp	1.0	0	0.32	1	12%	0
DET J. Berggren	1.0	0	0.29	0	13%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.9	0	0.18	0	3%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.9	0	0.14	0	4%	0
DET J. Bernard-Docker	0.8	4	0.15	0	3%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.8	0	0.27	0	5%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.7	0	0.14	0	8%	0
NJD C. White	0.6	0	0.15	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.