Game Recap: DET 1, OTT 2, March 10, 2025

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Game Recap

DET1

FinalMon, Mar 10, 2025Every game that night

OTT2

OTT beat DET 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 3.15 expected goals to 4.61. DET outshot OTT 49 to 23. A. DeBrincat had 11 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. L. Ullmark stopped 48 of 49.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DET	0	0	1	1
OTT	0	1	1	2

2nd 7:39OTTD. PerronPP0.10 xG
3rd 2:58DETD. Larkin0.08 xG
3rd 14:56OTTD. CozensPP0.15 xG

Team Stats

DETOTT

49Shots on goal23

4.61Expected goals3.15

76Shot attempts56

315v5 shots on goal18

0/3Power play2/4

31Hits43

21Blocked shots12

10Penalty minutes8

18Giveaways11

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 4.61 xGOTT 3.15 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET46 on goal, 1 scored

OTT23 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Larkin	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	21:14	4:28
L. Raymond	LW	0	1	1	5	2	0	+1	0	20:16	4:02
P. Kane	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	17:43	4:30
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	17:20	1:58
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:52	1:46
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	0	0	11	1	0	0	0	16:50	4:02
E. Soderblom	LW	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	0	15:35	0:00
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	13:48	1:28
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	13:30	1:24
C. Smith	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	10:56	0:02
T. Motte	C	0	0	0	1	2	4	0	0	10:45	0:04
D. Shine	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7:30	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	4	4	3	0	2	23:28	2:51
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	2	1	4	0	2	20:01	0:09
E. Gustafsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	20:00	3:05
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	2	19:51	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	16:48	0:11
J. Holl	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	4	12:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	23	21	2	.913	57:08	Loss
P. Mrazek	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Giroux	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	17:02	1:28
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	3	6	0	0	0	16:25	4:00
D. Cozens	C	1	0	1	3	8	0	0	0	14:04	3:26
D. Perron	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	12:54	1:49
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	20:55	1:11
T. Stützle	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	20:29	4:01
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:13	0:02
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	15:20	0:01
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	2	15:17	3:39
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	10:12	1:55
M. Highmore	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	9:38	0:00
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	6:41	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	-1	0	24:26	3:48
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	22:15	1:41
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	2	2	3	-1	0	21:56	0:14
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	19:49	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:16	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	13:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	49	48	1	.980	60:00	Win
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAlex DeBrincat DET Faces OTT, his team until Apr 202311 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 3.1, OTT 3.1	DET 1, OTT 2
Total goals	6.2	3
Shots on goal	DET 28.0, OTT 30.0	DET 49, OTT 23
Win chance	OTT 51%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	4.3	3	0.97	1	37%	0
DET D. Larkin	3.1	4	0.86	1	33%	1
DET A. DeBrincat	2.9	11	0.81	0	31%	0
DET P. Kane	2.6	4	0.83	0	26%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.4	0	1.12	0	31%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.3	1	0.63	1	10%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.3	1	0.84	0	27%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.3	5	0.86	1	27%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.2	3	0.62	1	22%	1
OTT T. Chabot	2.2	1	0.55	0	11%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	2.2	2	0.54	0	21%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.0	1	0.55	0	23%	0
OTT C. Giroux	2.0	0	0.78	1	26%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.9	3	0.46	0	18%	0
DET V. Tarasenko	1.9	4	0.54	0	22%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.9	1	0.62	1	24%	1
DET M. Seider	1.8	4	0.52	0	8%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.7	0	0.47	0	20%	0
DET C. Smith	1.6	2	0.32	0	15%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.5	2	0.47	0	22%	0
DET J. Compher	1.4	0	0.49	0	18%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.4	3	0.20	0	6%	0
DET E. Soderblom	1.4	2	0.41	0	17%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.3	1	0.32	0	17%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	1.2	1	0.06	0	3%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.2	2	0.31	0	14%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.1	2	0.29	0	7%	0
DET E. Gustafsson	1.1	1	0.34	0	6%	0
OTT M. Highmore	1.0	1	0.24	0	9%	0
DET T. Motte	1.0	1	0.15	0	8%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.9	3	0.27	0	5%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	0.9	2	0.33	0	9%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.9	0	0.20	0	4%	0
OTT T. Kleven	0.8	0	0.09	0	3%	0
DET D. Shine	0.7	0	0.23	0	9%	0
DET J. Holl	0.5	1	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.