Game Recap: DET 2, OTT 1 (OT), February 26, 2026

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Game Recap

DET2

Final/OTThu, Feb 26, 2026Every game that night

OTT1

DET beat OTT 2-1 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.61 expected goals to 2.75. D. Larkin led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Gibson stopped 26 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
DET	0	1	0	1	2
OTT	1	0	0	0	1

1st 18:44OTTB. TkachukPP0.13 xG
2nd 5:24DETD. LarkinPP0.15 xG
OT 1:50DETD. Larkin0.24 xG

Team Stats

DETOTT

20Shots on goal27

1.61Expected goals2.75

59Shot attempts66

165v5 shots on goal23

1/2Power play1/2

18Hits30

21Blocked shots25

11Penalty minutes23

8Giveaways14

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 1.61 xGOTT 2.75 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET20 on goal, 2 scored

OTT27 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Larkin	C	2	0	2	3	1	0	+1	0	23:11	1:31
L. Raymond	LW	0	2	2	4	0	0	+1	0	20:42	1:43
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	19:48	0:42
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	19:15	1:31
P. Kane	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	2	18:43	1:18
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:09	0:43
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:07	0:00
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:35	0:00
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:48	0:00
E. Finnie	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	8:37	0:00
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:43	0:43
E. Soderblom	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7:29	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	1	1	1	2	4	+1	0	25:48	1:33
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	24:33	0:00
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	2	1	5	0	7	23:46	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:43	0:41
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	2	16:59	0:00
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:38	0:45

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	27	26	1	.963	61:47	Win
C. Talbot	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	17:58	2:09
B. Tkachuk	LW	1	0	1	3	3	1	0	10	15:52	2:09
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	3	3	3	-1	0	20:51	0:52
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	19:45	0:00
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	17:42	0:00
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	17:10	2:07
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	2	7	0	0	7	17:00	2:08
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	1	2	3	-1	4	16:40	0:00
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:55	0:51
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	9:21	0:00
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	8:19	0:00
S. Halliday	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:38	0:50
J. Sanderson	D	0	1	1	3	1	2	0	0	26:39	2:08
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	23:05	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	21:25	0:50
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	19:35	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:23	0:51
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	2	13:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	20	18	2	.900	61:50	OT loss
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DET

Line 1D. Larkin18:01L. Raymond17:46M. Kasper17:25

Line 2P. Kane16:49A. Copp15:40A. DeBrincat16:25

Line 3J. Compher11:37M. Appleton12:14E. Finnie8:37

Line 4M. Rasmussen9:03E. Soderblom7:29J. Riemsdyk7:00

Pair 1M. Seider20:44S. Edvinsson19:56

Pair 2B. Chiarot22:17J. Bernard-Docker16:16

Pair 3A. Johansson15:35A. Sandin-Pellikka10:46

OTT

Line 1N. Cousins17:42M. Amadio18:51S. Pinto17:28

Line 2D. Cozens13:46B. Tkachuk12:18R. Greig15:08

Line 3D. Batherson13:57T. Stützle12:54C. Giroux12:15

Line 4F. Zetterlund9:21L. Eller8:19S. Halliday5:48

Pair 1J. Sanderson21:24A. Zub20:20

Pair 2N. Jensen18:04T. Chabot17:35

Pair 3J. Spence14:32T. Kleven13:58

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJacob Bernard-Docker DET Faces OTT, his team until Dec 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 2.9, OTT 3.3	DET 2, OTT 1
Total goals	6.2	3
Shots on goal	DET 23.9, OTT 29.0	DET 20, OTT 27
Win chance	OTT 57%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.5	3	0.79	1	30%	1
DET A. DeBrincat	3.0	1	0.89	0	33%	0
DET D. Larkin	2.6	3	0.89	2	33%	2
OTT T. Stützle	2.3	0	0.95	1	30%	0
DET P. Kane	2.2	4	0.78	0	23%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.1	2	0.61	0	22%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.1	3	0.68	1	13%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.1	3	0.61	0	26%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.0	4	0.75	0	25%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.0	4	0.88	2	26%	0
DET M. Seider	1.9	1	0.59	1	10%	0
OTT T. Chabot	1.9	1	0.54	0	12%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.7	2	0.40	0	17%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.7	1	0.46	0	17%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	1	0.59	0	19%	0
DET A. Copp	1.5	0	0.55	0	17%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.4	2	0.36	0	14%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.4	1	0.47	0	21%	0
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.4	0	0.46	0	18%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.3	1	0.29	0	13%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.2	0	0.36	0	6%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.2	1	0.21	0	4%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.2	2	0.38	0	10%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.1	0	0.19	0	6%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.1	2	0.30	0	6%	0
DET J. Compher	1.1	1	0.37	0	14%	0
DET M. Appleton	1.0	0	0.28	0	11%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.0	0	0.27	0	12%	0
DET E. Soderblom	1.0	0	0.21	0	11%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.0	0	0.22	0	10%	0
OTT S. Halliday	1.0	0	0.37	0	12%	0
OTT L. Eller	0.8	2	0.19	0	9%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.8	1	0.17	0	5%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	0.8	0	0.25	0	7%	0
DET J. Bernard-Docker	0.8	1	0.17	0	4%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.7	0	0.25	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.