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Game Recap
DET3
PIT2
DET beat PIT 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.09 expected goals to 3.25. P. Kane led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). E. Malkin had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. C. Talbot stopped 31 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| PIT | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 2nd 1:00DETJ. Berggren0.11 xG
- 2nd 5:15DETP. KanePP0.17 xG
- 2nd 7:19PITB. Rust0.04 xG
- 2nd 12:23PITA. Beauvillier0.06 xG
- OT 1:30DETS. Edvinsson0.18 xG
Team Stats
DETPIT
31Shots on goal33
2.09Expected goals3.25
58Shot attempts81
265v5 shots on goal28
1/2Power play0/2
15Hits18
24Blocked shots17
4Penalty minutes4
19Giveaways19
9Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 2.09 xGPIT 3.25 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kane | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:01 | 1:47 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:53 | 1:51 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:17 | 1:48 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:51 | 1:49 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:51 | 1:04 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:13 | 0:59 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 15:55 | 1:02 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:00 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:44 | 1:03 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:06 | 0:00 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:00 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:39 | 0:00 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:54 | 0:00 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:42 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 23:55 | 1:58 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 20:02 | 0:01 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:19 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:10 | 0:53 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:51 | 3:16 |
| B. Rust | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:34 | 2:11 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:53 | 0:49 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:47 | 0:00 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:53 | 2:33 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:36 | 3:13 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:19 | 0:00 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Puljujarvi | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:25 | 1:28 |
| S. Poulin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:04 | 0:00 |
| V. Puustinen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:33 | 0:44 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3:36 | 0:00 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:30 | 0:19 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 24:14 | 1:27 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:43 | 2:59 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:49 | 1:01 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:00 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:42 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Nedeljkovic | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 61:30 | OT loss |
| T. Jarry | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 3.2, PIT 3.6 | DET 3, PIT 2 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | DET 28.2, PIT 34.5 | DET 31, PIT 33 |
| Win chance | PIT 56% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT S. Crosby | 3.2 | 6 | 1.18 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.9 | 2 | 0.94 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.8 | 4 | 0.76 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.8 | 2 | 0.72 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.7 | 3 | 0.81 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.6 | 2 | 0.85 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.6 | 6 | 1.00 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.3 | 3 | 0.76 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 2.1 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.1 | 5 | 0.62 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 2.0 | 0 | 0.58 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 1.9 | 2 | 0.81 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.8 | 4 | 0.56 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.7 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.7 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.6 | 3 | 0.38 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| PIT J. Puljujarvi | 1.6 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.4 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.3 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.3 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT M. Pettersson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT V. Puustinen | 1.3 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET J. Petry | 1.1 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.1 | 4 | 0.28 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT S. Poulin | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.6 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.