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Game Recap
DET4
TBL3
DET beat TBL 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.82 expected goals to 2.26. M. Kasper led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Kasper had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. A. Lyon stopped 18 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| TBL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 1:01TBLA. Cirelli0.20 xG
- 2nd 4:07DETP. Kane0.25 xG
- 2nd 16:37DETT. Motte0.27 xG
- 2nd 17:52TBLG. Goncalves0.05 xG
- 3rd 1:38TBLG. Goncalves0.13 xG
- 3rd 12:59DETM. Kasper0.13 xG
- OT 3:22DETM. Kasper0.16 xG
Team Stats
DETTBL
26Shots on goal21
2.82Expected goals2.26
62Shot attempts57
235v5 shots on goal20
0/1Power play0/0
21Hits18
18Blocked shots15
0Penalty minutes2
19Giveaways28
3Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 2.82 xGTBL 2.26 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kane | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:56 | 0:59 |
| M. Kasper | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 19:52 | 1:01 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:40 | 1:03 |
| T. Motte | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 10:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:47 | 1:00 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:12 | 0:59 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:33 | 1:00 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 1:01 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:34 | 0:00 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:55 | 0:45 |
| C. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 10:02 | 0:00 |
| A. Watson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:52 | 0:00 |
| W. Lagesson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:15 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 24:27 | 0:57 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 24:03 | 1:03 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:20 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:52 | 0:12 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 18:48 | 0:00 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:54 | 0:00 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 16:34 | 0:00 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:58 | 0:00 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:41 | 0:00 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:10 | 0:00 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:20 | 0:00 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:08 | 0:00 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:45 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:24 | 0:00 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:44 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 22:14 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 18:37 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:17 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:59 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 26 | 22 | 4 | .846 | 63:22 | OT loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 2.8, TBL 3.8 | DET 4, TBL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | DET 26.8, TBL 29.5 | DET 26, TBL 21 |
| Win chance | TBL 66% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.5 | 1 | 1.70 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 3.1 | 1 | 1.16 | 0 | 42% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.0 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.9 | 2 | 0.76 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.8 | 1 | 1.17 | 0 | 44% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.7 | 2 | 0.72 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.6 | 3 | 1.03 | 2 | 34% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.4 | 1 | 0.92 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.2 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 2.0 | 1 | 0.70 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| TBL N. Paul | 2.0 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.9 | 3 | 0.63 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.8 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.8 | 5 | 0.39 | 2 | 18% | 2 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.6 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.6 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET C. Smith | 1.3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.1 | 0 | 0.37 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.1 | 2 | 0.15 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.1 | 2 | 0.35 | 2 | 14% | 2 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 4 | 0.41 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.8 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.8 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.7 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET W. Lagesson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.10 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| DET A. Watson | 0.6 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.6 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 0 | 0.10 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.