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Game Recap
DET1
TBL4
TBL beat DET 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.94 expected goals to 2.14. J. Guentzel led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). G. Goncalves had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 24 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| TBL | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
- 2nd 0:49TBLJ. GuentzelPP0.13 xG
- 3rd 1:35TBLG. Goncalves0.14 xG
- 3rd 7:05DETJ. Compher0.09 xG
- 3rd 16:22TBLG. Goncalves0.16 xG
- 3rd 16:55TBLJ. GuentzelEN0.63 xG
Team Stats
DETTBL
25Shots on goal29
2.14Expected goals3.94
55Shot attempts72
255v5 shots on goal25
0/1Power play1/1
21Hits22
20Blocked shots14
2Penalty minutes2
10Giveaways16
10Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 2.14 xGTBL 3.94 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Compher | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:26 | 0:57 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:19 | 1:42 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:15 | 1:30 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:52 | 1:27 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:07 | 0:12 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:36 | 0:18 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:58 | 0:18 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:52 | 0:45 |
| M. Brandsegg-Nygård | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:27 | 0:15 |
| S. Dries | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:16 | 0:00 |
| D. Shine | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:09 | 0:18 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 25:11 | 1:33 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 24:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:11 | 0:27 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:47 | 0:18 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Goncalves | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:47 | 0:00 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 18:33 | 1:02 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:13 | 1:02 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:56 | 1:02 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:33 | 0:00 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:21 | 1:02 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:07 | 0:00 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:25 | 0:00 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:46 | 0:00 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:42 | 0:00 |
| S. Sabourin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:47 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 24:17 | 0:49 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 22:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:09 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:54 | 0:13 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:41 | 0:00 |
| D. Carlile | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 25 | 24 | 1 | .960 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DET
Line 1P. Kane17:37J. Compher17:59A. DeBrincat16:45
Line 2L. Raymond17:57M. Kasper17:27E. Finnie16:58
Line 3M. Appleton12:45M. Rasmussen12:25M. Brandsegg-Nygård10:12
Line 4J. Riemsdyk10:39S. Dries9:44D. Shine8:49
Pair 1M. Seider23:36S. Edvinsson24:10
Pair 2B. Chiarot16:59J. Faulk17:14
Pair 3J. Bernard-Docker14:14A. Johansson16:50
TBL
Line 1B. Point17:10G. Goncalves18:47N. Kucherov17:29
Line 2B. Hagel15:10A. Cirelli13:53J. Guentzel14:26
Line 3Y. Gourde14:36O. Bjorkstrand13:38P. Holmberg11:42
Line 4C. Perry11:19Z. Girgensons11:13S. Sabourin9:47
Pair 1R. McDonagh21:26D. Raddysh23:15
Pair 3C. D'Astous18:39D. Carlile12:56
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 2.9, TBL 3.6 | DET 1, TBL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | DET 26.6, TBL 29.0 | DET 25, TBL 29 |
| Win chance | TBL 61% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.2 | 2 | 0.85 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.0 | 3 | 1.61 | 2 | 38% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.7 | 1 | 0.93 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.6 | 5 | 0.98 | 2 | 36% | 2 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 2.6 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.4 | 4 | 0.74 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.2 | 2 | 0.98 | 2 | 37% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.2 | 2 | 0.84 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 2.0 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.9 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.8 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET J. Faulk | 1.7 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.6 | 0 | 0.57 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 1.6 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL C. Perry | 1.6 | 0 | 0.46 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| DET S. Dries | 1.5 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.5 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård | 1.4 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.1 | 3 | 0.34 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| DET J. Riemsdyk | 1.1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET M. Appleton | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.0 | 5 | 0.37 | 2 | 13% | 2 |
| TBL D. Carlile | 0.9 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.9 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET J. Bernard-Docker | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET D. Shine | 0.6 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL S. Sabourin | 0.5 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.