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Game Recap
DET2
TBL4
TBL beat DET 4-2, with the chances close: 3.72 expected goals to 3.35. B. Point led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Cirelli had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 19 of 21.
Team Stats
DETTBL
21Shots on goal27
3.35Expected goals3.72
43Shot attempts68
135v5 shots on goal21
1/4Power play1/3
37Hits21
23Blocked shots11
6Penalty minutes8
15Giveaways15
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 3.35 xGTBL 3.72 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Compher | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:06 | 3:00 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:32 | 4:51 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:13 | 3:06 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 22:55 | 5:00 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:36 | 4:50 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:36 | 4:47 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:08 | 3:02 |
| M. Brandsegg-Nygård | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:58 | 2:41 |
| J. Leonard | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:03 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:34 | 0:00 |
| S. Dries | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:22 | 0:02 |
| C. Mazur | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:52 | 3:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -1 | 2 | 30:11 | 4:53 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:30 | 0:13 |
| W. Wallinder | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:00 |
| A. Englund | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:51 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:09 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Gibson | 13 | 11 | 2 | .846 | 20:00 | |
| D. Tarasov | 13 | 12 | 1 | .923 | 36:59 | Loss |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:40 | 4:30 |
| B. Point | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:23 | 4:24 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:39 | 2:30 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:44 | 0:27 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:05 | 2:25 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:30 | 4:25 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:00 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:05 | 0:27 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:54 | 0:37 |
| J. Viel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:58 | 0:06 |
| D. James | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:34 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 2 | 18:49 | 0:00 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:14 | 4:21 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:29 | 0:40 |
| M. Crozier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:26 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:13 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Hildeby | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DET
Line 1A. DeBrincat14:52V. Arvidsson13:19E. Finnie13:09
Line 2A. Copp11:52M. Brandsegg-Nygård11:08L. Raymond11:49
Line 3M. Rasmussen10:00J. Compher11:06J. Leonard9:26
Line 4K. Kolesar9:05S. Dries8:41C. Mazur8:02
Pair 1B. Chiarot16:38M. Seider20:27
Pair 2J. Faulk14:12W. Wallinder15:06
Pair 3A. Englund12:02A. Johansson9:31
TBL
Line 1N. Kucherov14:17B. Point13:13J. Guentzel13:33
Line 2C. Geekie11:14J. Viel10:51G. Goncalves14:52
Line 3D. James10:34I. Mikheyev9:53P. Holmberg11:29
Line 4A. Cirelli9:15B. Hagel12:24
Pair 1J. Carlson15:45C. D'Astous13:51
Pair 2R. McDonagh11:27E. Cernak13:24
Pair 3M. Crozier15:31J. Moser9:23
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Prop Results
10 of 28 overs hit (36%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SOG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.5 | +126 | -150 | 4 | Over |
| TBL B. Hagel | 3.5 | +134 | -165 | 1 | Under |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.5 | +150 | -175 | 3 | Under |
| TBL B. Point | 2.5 | +121 | -140 | 4 | Over |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.5 | -120 | +120 | 0 | Under |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.5 | +125 | -140 | 5 | Over |
| DET V. Arvidsson | 2.5 | +100 | -115 | 1 | Under |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.5 | -127 | +105 | 5 | Over |
| DET A. Copp | 1.5 | +115 | -140 | 1 | Under |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.5 | +115 | – | 1 | Under |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.5 | -102 | -110 | 2 | Over |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.5 | +180 | – | 1 | Under |
| TBL D. James | 1.5 | +140 | – | 1 | Under |
| TBL E. Cernak | 1.5 | +145 | – | 0 | Under |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.5 | -135 | +120 | 0 | Under |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.5 | +138 | -160 | 0 | Under |
| TBL I. Mikheyev | 1.5 | -111 | – | 3 | Over |
| TBL J. Carlson | 1.5 | -138 | +112 | 1 | Under |
| DET J. Compher | 1.5 | +170 | – | 2 | Over |
| DET J. Faulk | 1.5 | +130 | -155 | 1 | Under |
| DET J. Leonard | 1.5 | +185 | – | 2 | Over |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.5 | +140 | -155 | 0 | Under |
| TBL J. Viel | 1.5 | +170 | – | 1 | Under |
| DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård | 1.5 | -115 | -105 | 0 | Under |
| TBL M. Crozier | 1.5 | +130 | -155 | 2 | Over |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.5 | +110 | – | 2 | Over |
| DET M. Seider | 1.5 | -140 | +120 | 1 | Under |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.5 | +125 | -150 | 1 | Under |
5 of 36 overs hit (14%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | G | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL A. Cirelli | 0.5 | +290 | -400 | 1 | Over |
| DET A. Copp | 0.5 | +500 | -700 | 0 | Under |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 0.5 | +210 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| DET A. Englund | 0.5 | +2500 | – | 0 | Under |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.5 | +2200 | -10000 | 0 | Under |
| DET B. Chiarot | 0.5 | +2500 | -3500 | 0 | Under |
| TBL B. Hagel | 0.5 | +140 | -150 | 0 | Under |
| TBL B. Point | 0.5 | +170 | -200 | 2 | Over |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 0.5 | +525 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| TBL C. Geekie | 0.5 | +550 | -750 | 0 | Under |
| DET C. Mazur | 0.5 | +1000 | -4000 | 0 | Under |
| TBL D. James | 0.5 | +500 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.5 | +1400 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| DET E. Finnie | 0.5 | +350 | -475 | 0 | Under |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.5 | +380 | -475 | 0 | Under |
| TBL I. Mikheyev | 0.5 | +475 | -700 | 0 | Under |
| TBL J. Carlson | 0.5 | +500 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| DET J. Compher | 0.5 | +500 | -1000 | 1 | Over |
| DET J. Faulk | 0.5 | +1200 | -2500 | 0 | Under |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 0.5 | +145 | -190 | 0 | Under |
| DET J. Leonard | 0.5 | +800 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.5 | +850 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| TBL J. Viel | 0.5 | +700 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| DET K. Kolesar | 0.5 | +1400 | -5000 | 0 | Under |
| DET L. Raymond | 0.5 | +270 | -390 | 1 | Over |
| DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård | 0.5 | +460 | -500 | 0 | Under |
| TBL M. Crozier | 0.5 | +950 | -3500 | 0 | Under |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 0.5 | +600 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| DET M. Seider | 0.5 | +700 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 0.5 | +135 | -165 | 0 | Under |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 0.5 | +440 | -600 | 0 | Under |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.5 | +1600 | -4000 | 1 | Over |
| DET S. Dries | 0.5 | +1200 | -4000 | 0 | Under |
| DET V. Arvidsson | 0.5 | +250 | -320 | 0 | Under |
| TBL V. Hedman | 0.5 | +800 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| DET W. Wallinder | 0.5 | +2200 | -10000 | 0 | Under |
6 of 18 overs hit (33%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL A. Cirelli | 0.5 | +215 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| DET A. Copp | 0.5 | +300 | -325 | 1 | Over |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 0.5 | +135 | -165 | 0 | Under |
| TBL B. Hagel | 0.5 | +110 | -130 | 0 | Under |
| TBL B. Point | 0.5 | -105 | -115 | 0 | Under |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 0.5 | +120 | -143 | 1 | Over |
| DET E. Finnie | 0.5 | +255 | -295 | 0 | Under |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.5 | +230 | -275 | 1 | Over |
| TBL J. Carlson | 0.5 | +165 | -185 | 0 | Under |
| DET J. Faulk | 0.5 | +260 | -325 | 1 | Over |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 0.5 | -105 | -118 | 0 | Under |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.5 | +340 | -500 | 1 | Over |
| DET L. Raymond | 0.5 | +135 | -160 | 0 | Under |
| DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård | 0.5 | +270 | -350 | 0 | Under |
| DET M. Seider | 0.5 | +134 | -160 | 0 | Under |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 0.5 | -205 | +180 | 2 | Over |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 0.5 | +265 | -335 | 0 | Under |
| DET V. Arvidsson | 0.5 | +182 | -230 | 0 | Under |
9 of 18 overs hit (50%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | P | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL J. Guentzel | 1.5 | +195 | -240 | 0 | Under |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 1.5 | +106 | -110 | 2 | Over |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 0.5 | +106 | -115 | 1 | Over |
| DET A. Copp | 0.5 | +170 | -190 | 1 | Over |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 0.5 | -140 | +121 | 0 | Under |
| TBL B. Hagel | 0.5 | -215 | +180 | 0 | Under |
| TBL B. Point | 0.5 | -210 | +165 | 2 | Over |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 0.5 | -105 | -110 | 1 | Over |
| DET E. Finnie | 0.5 | +132 | -140 | 0 | Under |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.5 | +130 | -160 | 1 | Over |
| TBL J. Carlson | 0.5 | +110 | -115 | 0 | Under |
| DET J. Faulk | 0.5 | +215 | -235 | 1 | Over |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.5 | +240 | -325 | 1 | Over |
| DET L. Raymond | 0.5 | -132 | +110 | 1 | Over |
| DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård | 0.5 | +150 | -175 | 0 | Under |
| DET M. Seider | 0.5 | +100 | -120 | 0 | Under |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 0.5 | +150 | -190 | 0 | Under |
| DET V. Arvidsson | 0.5 | -113 | +100 | 0 | Under |
6 of 20 overs hit (30%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | PPP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL A. Cirelli | 0.5 | +475 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| DET A. Copp | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 1 | Over |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 0.5 | +275 | -290 | 0 | Under |
| TBL B. Hagel | 0.5 | +220 | -240 | 0 | Under |
| TBL B. Point | 0.5 | +200 | -285 | 1 | Over |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 0.5 | +270 | -260 | 1 | Over |
| TBL C. Geekie | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| DET E. Finnie | 0.5 | +333 | -500 | 0 | Under |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.5 | +475 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| TBL J. Carlson | 0.5 | +340 | -500 | 0 | Under |
| DET J. Compher | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 1 | Over |
| DET J. Faulk | 0.5 | +475 | -1400 | 1 | Over |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 0.5 | +155 | -200 | 0 | Under |
| DET L. Raymond | 0.5 | +250 | -350 | 0 | Under |
| DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård | 0.5 | +475 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| DET M. Seider | 0.5 | +270 | -350 | 0 | Under |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 0.5 | +110 | -130 | 1 | Over |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| DET V. Arvidsson | 0.5 | +340 | -525 | 0 | Under |
0 of 2 overs hit (0%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET J. Gibson | 26.5 | -104 | -110 | 11 | Under |
| TBL A. Vasilevskiy | 22.5 | -118 | -112 | 19 | Under |
Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 2.7, TBL 3.7 | DET 2, TBL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | DET 25.1, TBL 28.5 | DET 21, TBL 27 |
| Win chance | TBL 66% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL B. Hagel | 3.1 | 1 | 1.18 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.0 | 3 | 1.61 | 2 | 39% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.0 | 4 | 0.85 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.9 | 0 | 1.20 | 0 | 41% | 0 |
| DET V. Arvidsson | 2.7 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.4 | 4 | 1.08 | 2 | 39% | 2 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.1 | 5 | 0.75 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| DET M. Seider | 2.0 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.7 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård | 1.7 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.6 | 5 | 0.72 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| TBL J. Carlson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET J. Faulk | 1.5 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL M. Crozier | 1.5 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL D. James | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.4 | 0 | 0.56 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL I. Mikheyev | 1.4 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.4 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.4 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.3 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.3 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.1 | 2 | 0.33 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL J. Viel | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET S. Dries | 1.0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET J. Leonard | 1.0 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET W. Wallinder | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.7 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| DET C. Mazur | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET K. Kolesar | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET A. Englund | 0.5 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.