Game Recap: DET 3, TOR 2, October 13, 2025

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Game Recap

DET3

FinalMon, Oct 13, 2025Every game that night

TOR2

DET beat TOR 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.97 expected goals to 3.67. TOR outshot DET 40 to 15. M. Knies led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Matthews had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.8. C. Talbot stopped 38 of 40.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DET	1	0	2	3
TOR	0	0	2	2

1st 18:55DETD. LarkinPP0.34 xG
3rd 4:25DETJ. van Riemsdyk0.14 xG
3rd 7:29TORM. Knies0.14 xG
3rd 13:42TORC. Jarnkrok0.12 xG
3rd 19:15DETM. Appleton0.04 xG

Team Stats

DETTOR

15Shots on goal40

1.97Expected goals3.67

39Shot attempts73

115v5 shots on goal33

1/4Power play0/2

18Hits22

20Blocked shots10

6Penalty minutes8

16Giveaways22

11Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 1.97 xGTOR 3.67 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET15 on goal, 3 scored

TOR38 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Larkin	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	6	18:39	3:51
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	1	1	4	0	2	-1	0	18:35	3:55
E. Finnie	C	0	1	1	0	6	1	+1	0	15:54	0:00
A. Copp	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	14:58	0:41
M. Appleton	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	13:36	0:00
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	10:09	1:33
L. Raymond	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	7:58	1:07
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	20:31	3:28
P. Kane	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	17:47	3:21
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:02	1:46
M. Brandsegg-Nygård	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	13:42	1:36
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	0	11:03	0:02
B. Chiarot	D	0	1	1	0	2	3	+2	0	21:59	0:10
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	0	26:22	3:46
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-2	0	22:12	1:41
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	0	20:17	0:18
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:17	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	40	38	2	.950	59:47	Win
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Knies	LW	1	1	2	3	2	0	+1	0	22:31	2:47
A. Matthews	C	0	1	1	8	2	3	+1	0	22:34	2:50
B. McMann	C	0	1	1	5	3	1	+1	0	13:30	0:40
C. Jarnkrok	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	12:04	0:00
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	19:42	2:42
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	16:30	2:19
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	14:05	0:30
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:50	1:06
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	12:22	0:27
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:12	0:00
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:18	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	8:40	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	-2	2	22:21	2:53
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	21:41	0:00
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	19:00	0:07
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	2	18:46	0:37
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	+1	4	17:25	0:07
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	17:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	15	12	3	.800	59:04	Loss
C. Primeau	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DET

Line 1E. Finnie14:34D. Larkin14:15L. Raymond6:51

Line 2P. Kane13:44M. Kasper12:19A. DeBrincat13:34

Line 3J. Compher14:34M. Brandsegg-Nygård12:06A. Copp12:28

Line 4J. Riemsdyk8:36M. Rasmussen8:59M. Appleton10:55

Pair 1B. Chiarot19:35M. Seider20:08

Pair 2S. Edvinsson16:37A. Sandin-Pellikka16:51

Pair 3J. Bernard-Docker11:15A. Johansson11:19

TOR

Line 1A. Matthews16:23M. Knies16:03E. Cowan12:59

Line 2J. Tavares12:37W. Nylander15:06M. Maccelli11:42

Line 3B. McMann11:50M. Domi10:39N. Robertson8:22

Line 4C. Jarnkrok9:22N. Roy9:17D. Joshua8:50

Pair 1C. Tanev14:16J. McCabe16:33

Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson17:09S. Benoit15:46

Pair 3M. Rielly17:29B. Carlo14:17

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 3.1, TOR 3.2	DET 3, TOR 2
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	DET 28.2, TOR 26.2	DET 15, TOR 40
Win chance	TOR 53%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.8	8	1.19	1	45%	0
DET A. DeBrincat	3.0	4	0.77	1	29%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.9	2	1.10	0	39%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.8	1	0.92	0	35%	0
DET D. Larkin	2.8	3	0.83	1	30%	1
DET P. Kane	2.5	1	0.77	0	23%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.2	3	0.77	2	29%	1
DET L. Raymond	2.1	0	0.73	1	23%	0
DET M. Kasper	2.1	0	0.49	0	20%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.0	5	0.44	1	22%	0
DET M. Seider	1.9	1	0.50	0	8%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.7	4	0.66	0	11%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	2	0.37	0	19%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.4	0	0.51	0	14%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.4	2	0.46	0	14%	0
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.4	1	0.43	1	16%	1
TOR N. Roy	1.3	1	0.45	0	17%	0
DET M. Appleton	1.3	2	0.29	1	11%	1
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	0	0.19	1	6%	0
DET J. Compher	1.3	0	0.40	0	15%	0
DET A. Copp	1.3	1	0.39	1	14%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.3	0	0.37	0	10%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.2	3	0.35	0	7%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.2	0	0.28	0	13%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	0	0.37	0	6%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.0	2	0.18	0	5%	0
TOR D. Joshua	1.0	1	0.34	0	17%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	1.0	3	0.32	1	14%	1
DET A. Johansson	0.8	1	0.16	0	5%	0
DET J. Bernard-Docker	0.8	1	0.16	0	4%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	2	0.15	0	3%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.6	0	0.26	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 32 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.