WSH beat DET 5-2, with the chances close: 2.18 expected goals to 1.83. WSH outshot DET 28 to 19. A. Protas led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). T. Raddysh had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. L. Thompson stopped 17 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| WSH | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
- 1st 0:43DETD. Larkin0.02 xG
- 1st 7:00DETM. SeiderPP0.09 xG
- 1st 18:39WSHT. Raddysh0.17 xG
- 3rd 0:51WSHA. ProtasSH0.05 xG
- 3rd 1:57WSHJ. Chychrun0.03 xG
- 3rd 5:17WSHA. Protas0.06 xG
- 3rd 9:19WSHT. WilsonSH0.18 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 1.83 xGWSH 2.18 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:28 | 3:00 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:09 | 3:01 |
| D. Larkin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:08 | 2:51 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:09 | 3:02 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:12 | 1:01 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:00 | 1:01 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:21 | 0:35 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:51 | 1:00 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:00 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:30 | 0:34 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:00 | 0:44 |
| D. Shine | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10:08 | 0:34 |
| M. Seider | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:06 | 3:32 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:12 | 0:34 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:39 | 1:04 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:27 | 0:00 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:35 | 0:00 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:56 | 0:27 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Protas | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:42 | 0:00 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:48 | 1:23 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:53 | 1:23 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:37 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:25 | 1:23 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:16 | 0:37 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:19 | 0:00 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:59 | 2:00 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:00 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13:21 | 0:00 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:36 | 0:00 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:31 | 0:37 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:41 | 1:23 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 20:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:11 | 0:37 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:56 | 0:00 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:07 | 0:00 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 17:42 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 19 | 17 | 2 | .895 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 2.7, WSH 3.4 | DET 2, WSH 5 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | DET 26.2, WSH 27.9 | DET 19, WSH 28 |
| Win chance | WSH 61% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.6 | 1 | 1.02 | 0 | 42% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 3.0 | 1 | 0.80 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.8 | 3 | 0.74 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.5 | 1 | 0.75 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.5 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.4 | 2 | 0.80 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.2 | 2 | 0.78 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.71 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 2.1 | 1 | 0.88 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 2.0 | 3 | 0.72 | 3 | 22% | 2 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.0 | 0 | 0.62 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 2.0 | 2 | 0.97 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.9 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.8 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.8 | 3 | 0.47 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.4 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.4 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.3 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.1 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.1 | 4 | 0.32 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.0 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.0 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 1.0 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 0.9 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 3 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.