Game Recap: EDM 3, ANA 5, December 29, 2024

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Game Recap

EDM3

FinalSun, Dec 29, 2024Every game that night

ANA5

ANA beat EDM 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.83 expected goals to 2.61. ANA outshot EDM 32 to 23. L. Draisaitl led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). R. Fabbri had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. L. Dostal stopped 20 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	2	1	0	3
ANA	1	2	2	5

1st 8:03EDML. DraisaitlPP0.21 xG
1st 11:49EDME. Bouchard0.09 xG
1st 13:52ANAC. Gauthier0.08 xG
2nd 9:10EDML. DraisaitlPP0.17 xG
2nd 12:19ANAD. Helleson0.00 xG
2nd 17:33ANAR. Fabbri0.13 xG
3rd 17:24ANAR. Strome0.20 xG
3rd 19:08ANAM. McTavishEN0.48 xG

Team Stats

EDMANA

23Shots on goal32

2.61Expected goals4.83

47Shot attempts61

165v5 shots on goal23

2/3Power play0/5

13Hits26

14Blocked shots13

12Penalty minutes8

7Giveaways17

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.61 xGANA 4.83 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM20 on goal, 3 scored

ANA32 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	2	0	2	4	0	0	-2	0	21:32	3:30
C. McDavid	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	-3	0	21:20	3:30
Z. Hyman	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-2	0	17:53	3:30
C. Brown	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	13:31	0:00
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	2	12:27	0:00
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	17:23	3:03
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:44	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:57	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	12:35	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	11:40	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	9:40	0:00
D. Ryan	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	0	8:23	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	1	1	2	3	0	1	0	0	22:13	3:30
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-2	0	22:41	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	22:33	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	-3	0	21:18	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	1	5	2	-1	0	16:58	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	8	11:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	31	27	4	.871	58:04	Loss
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Fabbri	C	1	1	2	5	0	0	+3	2	21:10	4:16
M. McTavish	C	1	1	2	3	1	1	+3	0	18:13	3:53
C. Gauthier	LW	1	1	2	1	1	1	+2	0	16:18	2:20
R. Strome	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+2	0	20:08	5:47
T. Terry	RW	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	2	20:08	5:49
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	5	0	1	+2	0	18:53	5:47
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	16:29	5:35
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	16:16	4:09
B. Leason	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	12:55	1:56
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	11:09	0:09
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	8:39	0:08
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	6:40	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	20:54	5:21
D. Helleson	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	+2	0	13:24	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	20:08	0:11
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	+1	2	19:39	0:14
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	+1	0	17:40	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+2	0	17:02	4:25

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	23	20	3	.870	58:45	Win
C. Clang	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.8, ANA 2.7	EDM 3, ANA 5
Total goals	6.5	8
Shots on goal	EDM 32.6, ANA 26.5	EDM 23, ANA 32
Win chance	EDM 66%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.3	2	1.79	2	42%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	3.2	1	0.92	1	41%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	3.1	5	0.60	0	29%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.9	4	1.46	2	45%	2
EDM E. Bouchard	2.6	3	0.90	2	17%	1
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.5	1	0.66	1	23%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.4	3	0.44	0	11%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.3	2	0.75	1	28%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.2	3	0.50	0	12%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.0	0	0.85	0	25%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	1.9	1	0.41	2	14%	1
ANA M. McTavish	1.8	3	0.53	2	21%	1
ANA A. Killorn	1.7	1	0.54	0	23%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.7	3	0.51	1	17%	1
EDM B. Kulak	1.6	2	0.33	0	7%	0
ANA R. Fabbri	1.5	5	0.48	2	23%	1
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	0	0.33	0	14%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.4	0	0.48	0	21%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.4	2	0.33	0	15%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.4	1	0.27	0	6%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.3	3	0.39	0	17%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.2	0	0.33	1	11%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.2	0	0.33	0	13%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.1	0	0.34	0	16%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.0	2	0.32	1	8%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.0	1	0.28	1	7%	1
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.0	1	0.30	0	6%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.9	1	0.20	0	3%	0
ANA R. Gudas	0.9	1	0.21	0	4%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.8	2	0.15	0	4%	0
ANA B. Dumoulin	0.8	1	0.21	0	4%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.8	0	0.21	0	11%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.8	0	0.16	0	7%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.7	1	0.31	0	10%	0
EDM D. Ryan	0.7	0	0.18	0	9%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.4	0	0.11	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.