ANA beat EDM 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.00 expected goals to 4.16. EDM outshot ANA 47 to 21. C. Gauthier led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). R. Nugent-Hopkins had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. L. Dostal stopped 45 of 47.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| ANA | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 17:51EDMA. Henrique0.09 xG
- 2nd 2:20ANAC. Gauthier0.18 xG
- 2nd 7:10ANAC. Gauthier0.17 xG
- 3rd 5:33ANAM. McTavish0.20 xG
- 3rd 16:29EDMJ. Skinner0.09 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
EDM 4.16 xGANA 2.00 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Henrique | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 19:35 | 3:49 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:13 | 3:58 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 | 3:25 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:38 | 4:33 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:32 | 4:09 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:54 | 3:26 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:45 | 4:02 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 14:05 | 0:11 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:54 | 0:18 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 11:13 | 0:00 |
| M. Jones | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 8:53 | 0:00 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 24:30 | 4:30 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:23 | 3:53 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:40 | 3:49 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 20:27 | 0:23 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:51 | 0:00 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:20 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. Rodrigue | 21 | 18 | 3 | .857 | 57:25 | Loss |
| C. Pickard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Gauthier | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:14 | 0:54 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:41 | 0:56 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:15 | 0:00 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 1:18 |
| M. McTavish | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:23 | 1:17 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:02 | 0:55 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:28 | 1:19 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 6 | 15:40 | 1:18 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 12:12 | 0:00 |
| S. Colangelo | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:41 | 0:55 |
| N. Nesterenko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:06 | 0:00 |
| B. Leason | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:56 | 0:00 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 6 | 19:40 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 28:12 | 1:03 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 25:10 | 0:00 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:26 | 0:00 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:27 | 1:10 |
| O. Kylington | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:49 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | EDM 3.7, ANA 3.0 | EDM 2, ANA 3 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | EDM 33.5, ANA 28.5 | EDM 47, ANA 21 |
| Win chance | EDM 61% | ANA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM Z. Hyman | 2.9 | 5 | 0.74 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.8 | 5 | 0.84 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| EDM V. Arvidsson | 2.7 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 2.6 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.6 | 5 | 0.45 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 2.5 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 2.3 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| EDM J. Walman | 2.3 | 5 | 0.45 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.3 | 3 | 0.70 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 2.1 | 7 | 0.82 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 2.1 | 5 | 0.48 | 2 | 17% | 2 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 1.9 | 0 | 0.64 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.8 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.7 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.7 | 3 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.7 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.6 | 0 | 0.58 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.6 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.5 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.5 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA S. Colangelo | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA N. Nesterenko | 1.4 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.4 | 3 | 0.46 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.3 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA B. Leason | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.9 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM M. Jones | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 0.9 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA O. Kylington | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.9 | 3 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.