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Game Recap
EDM5
FinalWed, Feb 25, 2026Every game that night
ANA6

ANA beat EDM 6-5 despite fewer good chances: 3.29 expected goals to 4.13. M. Savoie led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Savoie had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. L. Dostal stopped 22 of 27.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
EDM2215
ANA1146
  1. 1st 0:13EDMJ. Roslovic0.13 xG
  2. 1st 9:03EDMR. Nugent-Hopkins0.22 xG
  3. 1st 10:30ANAI. Moore0.04 xG
  4. 2nd 3:01ANAA. KillornPP0.43 xG
  5. 2nd 18:45EDMZ. Hyman0.10 xG
  6. 2nd 19:20EDME. Bouchard0.09 xG
  7. 3rd 1:30ANAL. Carlsson0.05 xG
  8. 3rd 2:55ANAO. Zellweger0.01 xG
  9. 3rd 5:53EDMM. SavoiePP0.47 xG
  10. 3rd 6:39ANAB. Sennecke0.17 xG
  11. 3rd 18:46ANAC. Gauthier0.11 xG

Team Stats

EDMANA
27Shots on goal29
4.13Expected goals3.29
62Shot attempts54
245v5 shots on goal19
1/2Power play1/5
21Hits23
11Blocked shots15
10Penalty minutes4
15Giveaways22
5Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 4.13 xGANA 3.29 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdEDM goal, 0:13EDM goal, 9:03ANA goal, 10:30ANA goal, 3:01EDM goal, 18:45EDM goal, 19:20ANA goal, 1:30ANA goal, 2:55EDM goal, 5:53ANA goal, 6:39ANA goal, 18:46

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM27 on goal, 5 scored
ANA29 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. SavoieC1234010016:280:17
C. McDavidC022210+2222:023:12
R. Nugent-HopkinsC112200+1020:123:14
Z. HymanLW101310+1022:173:15
J. RoslovicC101210-2215:280:45
V. PodkolzinRW011330-1012:180:43
L. DraisaitlC000310-2020:353:20
A. HenriqueC0000100212:420:25
T. FredericC000160-1011:140:00
A. MangiapaneLW0001200010:160:00
C. LazarC000111-1010:130:00
M. JanmarkC000000002:300:00
E. BouchardD112301+2022:162:56
M. EkholmD022023+1219:300:29
D. NurseD011002-3021:240:08
J. WalmanD000003-2021:181:01
S. StastneyD0000000016:510:00
T. EmbersonD0002200215:340:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
T. Jarry25205.80046:39
C. Ingram431.75012:41Loss

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
L. CarlssonC1234110017:014:52
C. KreiderLW022100+1015:362:03
A. KillornLW101400-2022:145:29
M. McTavishC011110+2019:064:45
B. SenneckeRW101241-1016:272:47
C. GauthierLW101300+1215:152:01
T. TerryRW0110000013:524:23
J. HarkinsC011011+1011:340:00
R. JohnstonLW011041+209:550:00
R. PoehlingC000300-2017:532:43
J. VielLW0001300012:180:00
T. WasheC000021+1011:350:00
J. LaCombeD011121+2022:272:32
J. TroubaD011431+1019:580:49
I. MooreD1013040219:210:00
O. ZellwegerD1012010016:470:00
R. GudasD0110210014:230:16
P. MintyukovD000002-1020:215:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal27225.81560:00Win
V. Husso000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman17:48C. McDavid14:53R. Nugent-Hopkins13:18
Line 2L. Draisaitl16:00J. Roslovic14:43M. Savoie12:42
Line 3A. Henrique9:49T. Frederic11:14V. Podkolzin11:35
Line 4A. Mangiapane10:16C. Lazar9:12M. Janmark2:12
Pair 1D. Nurse17:48J. Walman17:07
Pair 2M. Ekholm15:56E. Bouchard15:26
Pair 3S. Stastney15:21T. Emberson14:30

ANA

Line 1A. Killorn13:46B. Sennecke13:40M. McTavish14:21
Line 2R. Johnston9:55T. Washe10:04J. Harkins11:34
Line 3L. Carlsson12:09C. Kreider12:38C. Gauthier13:14
Line 4R. Poehling12:10J. Viel11:45
Pair 1J. LaCombe19:22J. Trouba16:09
Pair 2P. Mintyukov12:55I. Moore18:49
Pair 3R. Gudas12:33O. Zellweger15:17

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreEDM 3.7, ANA 3.3EDM 5, ANA 6
Total goals6.911
Shots on goalEDM 30.9, ANA 29.0EDM 27, ANA 29
Win chanceEDM 55%ANA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
EDM C. McDavid3.721.75241%0
ANA C. Gauthier3.430.84130%1
EDM Z. Hyman3.130.93140%1
EDM E. Bouchard3.131.14222%1
EDM L. Draisaitl3.031.51045%0
ANA B. Sennecke2.720.93128%1
EDM D. Nurse2.200.38111%0
ANA M. McTavish2.110.62123%0
ANA L. Carlsson2.140.79326%1
ANA T. Terry2.100.72124%0
EDM J. Walman2.000.46012%0
ANA C. Kreider2.010.69234%0
ANA A. Killorn2.040.51122%1
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins2.020.90225%1
EDM M. Ekholm1.900.51212%0
EDM J. Roslovic1.820.48120%1
ANA J. Trouba1.740.3718%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.610.63112%0
EDM V. Podkolzin1.430.42116%0
ANA J. Viel1.410.21012%0
ANA R. Poehling1.330.51017%0
ANA O. Zellweger1.320.2617%1
EDM M. Savoie1.240.27313%1
ANA P. Mintyukov1.000.3609%0
EDM A. Henrique1.000.27013%0
ANA R. Gudas0.900.2013%0
ANA J. Harkins0.900.1919%0
EDM T. Frederic0.910.19011%0
EDM S. Stastney0.800.1704%0
ANA I. Moore0.830.2214%1
ANA T. Washe0.800.21011%0
EDM A. Mangiapane0.810.25012%0
EDM T. Emberson0.720.2203%0
EDM C. Lazar0.610.1507%0
ANA R. Johnston0.600.1916%0
EDM M. Janmark0.500.1907%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.