Game Recap: EDM 1, BUF 5, November 17, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM1

FinalMon, Nov 17, 2025Every game that night

BUF5

BUF beat EDM 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.59 expected goals to 2.23. N. Ostlund led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). E. Bouchard had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. C. Ellis stopped 32 of 33.

Team Stats

EDMBUF

33Shots on goal28

2.23Expected goals3.59

65Shot attempts63

275v5 shots on goal24

0/1Power play1/2

20Hits13

16Blocked shots19

9Penalty minutes7

16Giveaways11

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.23 xGBUF 3.59 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM33 on goal, 1 scored

BUF27 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	23:07	1:35
J. Roslovic	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	17:51	1:36
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	13:33	0:00
C. McDavid	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	23:35	1:36
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	3	4	0	-2	0	22:06	1:35
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:49	0:25
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	5	14:41	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	13:23	0:25
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	2	5	1	0	0	12:24	0:24
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	9:03	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:35	0:00
N. Philp	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	6:23	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	6	0	3	0	0	24:16	1:31
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	3	2	4	+1	2	22:35	0:24
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	5	1	1	-2	0	22:03	0:00
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-3	0	19:38	0:29
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	-1	0	18:16	0:00
A. Regula	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	12:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	27	23	4	.852	58:06	Loss
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Ostlund	C	2	0	2	3	0	1	+2	0	10:42	1:28
T. Thompson	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	18:29	1:28
T. Kozak	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	15:50	0:08
I. Rosen	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	14:52	1:32
P. Krebs	C	0	1	1	2	1	3	+1	5	12:29	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	1	0	1	3	4	2	+2	0	11:10	0:00
J. Dunne	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	9:12	0:00
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	4	1	1	+1	0	18:52	0:59
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	17:51	0:55
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	16:48	0:00
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	16:35	0:51
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	16:30	1:31
R. Dahlin	D	0	2	2	3	0	1	+1	0	24:02	1:26
M. Samuelsson	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	25:36	0:00
B. Byram	D	1	0	1	2	0	2	+2	0	20:40	0:56
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	19:09	0:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:54	1:01
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	12:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ellis	33	32	1	.970	60:00	Win
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman18:37C. McDavid20:05L. Draisaitl19:38

Line 2J. Roslovic14:21V. Podkolzin13:52M. Savoie14:10

Line 3A. Mangiapane13:33T. Frederic12:00A. Henrique11:40

Line 4M. Janmark8:14C. Lazar8:39N. Philp5:37

Pair 1M. Ekholm22:11E. Bouchard19:33

Pair 2D. Nurse20:56J. Walman16:07

Pair 3B. Kulak16:53A. Regula12:09

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson16:02J. Doan15:52A. Tuch16:03

Line 2T. Kozak14:17J. Greenway14:55P. Krebs12:12

Line 3R. McLeod14:23I. Rosen13:20J. Quinn14:59

Line 4B. Malenstyn10:18J. Dunne9:12N. Ostlund9:14

Pair 1M. Samuelsson22:44R. Dahlin22:15

Pair 2C. Timmins15:54B. Byram19:04

Pair 3J. Bryson12:19O. Power15:12

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamRyan McLeod BUF Faces EDM, his team until Jun 20242 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.5, BUF 3.2	EDM 1, BUF 5
Total goals	6.7	6
Shots on goal	EDM 30.2, BUF 27.2	EDM 33, BUF 28
Win chance	EDM 55%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.3	3	1.00	1	40%	1
EDM C. McDavid	3.1	1	1.66	0	39%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.8	2	1.43	1	45%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.7	6	0.96	0	18%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.4	3	0.70	0	33%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	2.3	1	0.74	1	25%	1
BUF R. Dahlin	2.3	3	0.77	2	17%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.2	1	0.57	0	20%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.1	4	0.80	0	29%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.0	5	0.40	0	10%	0
EDM J. Walman	1.9	0	0.50	0	12%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.8	3	0.46	0	10%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.8	2	0.67	0	22%	0
BUF I. Rosen	1.6	1	0.46	1	18%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	0	0.41	0	15%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.4	2	0.44	0	20%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.4	2	0.31	0	14%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.3	2	0.61	0	20%	0
BUF O. Power	1.2	0	0.39	0	7%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.2	3	0.36	2	15%	2
BUF J. Greenway	1.2	0	0.30	0	12%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.1	2	0.37	1	18%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.1	2	0.46	1	12%	1
EDM B. Kulak	1.1	1	0.22	0	5%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	2	0.33	1	10%	0
EDM N. Philp	1.0	0	0.20	0	9%	0
EDM T. Frederic	0.9	2	0.25	0	13%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	3	0.16	1	7%	1
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.9	0	0.24	1	6%	0
BUF C. Timmins	0.9	1	0.28	0	5%	0
EDM A. Regula	0.8	2	0.10	0	5%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.7	1	0.25	1	14%	0
BUF J. Dunne	0.7	0	0.12	1	8%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.7	0	0.22	0	9%	0
EDM C. Lazar	0.6	1	0.18	0	8%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.3	0	0.11	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.