Game Recap: EDM 3, CAR 1, March 1, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM3

FinalSat, Mar 1, 2025Every game that night

CAR1

EDM beat CAR 3-1, with the chances close: 4.77 expected goals to 4.98. L. Draisaitl led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). C. Perry had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. C. Pickard stopped 35 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	1	1	1	3
CAR	0	0	1	1

1st 5:08EDMA. HenriqueSH0.23 xG
2nd 16:29EDMC. Perry0.31 xG
3rd 4:26CARS. AhoPP0.10 xG
3rd 19:59EDME. BouchardEN0.48 xG

Team Stats

EDMCAR

31Shots on goal36

4.77Expected goals4.98

61Shot attempts68

275v5 shots on goal30

1/2Power play1/4

12Hits14

15Blocked shots14

8Penalty minutes4

24Giveaways20

4Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 4.77 xGCAR 4.98 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM31 on goal, 3 scored

CAR36 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	0	2	2	2	1	0	+1	2	21:07	2:46
C. McDavid	C	0	1	1	4	0	2	0	0	24:42	2:49
A. Henrique	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	12:25	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	2	10:07	0:00
C. Perry	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	8:04	0:46
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	21:54	2:47
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	20:45	1:18
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:18	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	11:03	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	10:57	0:00
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:11	0:44
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:55	0:42
B. Kulak	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+2	0	25:45	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0	22:14	2:56
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	23:46	2:10
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	18:08	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	2	17:59	0:47
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	11:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	36	35	1	.972	60:00	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	-1	0	23:15	4:35
M. Rantanen	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	-1	2	18:19	4:42
S. Jarvis	RW	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	0	22:15	4:31
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	20:06	4:36
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	17:32	0:27
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:43	0:27
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	13:23	2:24
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:11	2:24
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	12:49	2:29
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:48	2:17
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:51	0:27
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:40	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	1	1	4	0	3	0	0	16:54	4:36
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	2	1	4	0	0	24:24	0:28
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	21:44	2:25
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	2	18:26	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	16:52	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	14:51	0:27

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	30	28	2	.933	58:24	Loss
P. Kochetkov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamFrederik Andersen EDM First game back in Raleigh, his team until Jun 202628 saves on 30

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 2.9, CAR 3.2	EDM 3, CAR 1
Total goals	6.1	4
Shots on goal	EDM 26.4, CAR 31.2	EDM 31, CAR 36
Win chance	CAR 55%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.8	2	1.21	2	39%	0
EDM C. McDavid	2.8	4	1.37	1	34%	0
CAR M. Rantanen	2.6	2	1.06	1	35%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.6	4	0.97	1	33%	1
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.5	2	0.78	0	26%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.5	2	0.66	0	31%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.4	2	0.79	0	29%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.3	3	0.69	1	12%	1
CAR B. Burns	2.1	2	0.43	0	11%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.1	0	0.50	0	18%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.8	1	0.39	0	18%	0
EDM J. Skinner	1.8	0	0.45	0	20%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.8	0	0.50	0	19%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.6	3	0.38	0	9%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.6	3	0.66	0	20%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	3	0.43	0	15%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.5	4	0.22	0	6%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.5	1	0.42	0	15%	0
CAR J. Roslovic	1.5	3	0.45	0	17%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.4	3	0.40	0	16%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.4	2	0.38	0	8%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.4	0	0.34	0	14%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.4	4	0.47	1	10%	0
CAR D. Orlov	1.3	1	0.36	0	8%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.3	2	0.25	0	9%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.2	1	0.26	1	5%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.1	1	0.37	1	17%	1
EDM C. Brown	1.1	1	0.30	0	9%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.1	0	0.25	0	10%	0
EDM J. Klingberg	1.1	3	0.34	0	6%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.1	4	0.29	1	14%	1
CAR T. Jost	1.0	0	0.19	0	8%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	0.9	1	0.23	0	9%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.7	2	0.26	1	9%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.7	0	0.18	0	2%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.6	1	0.11	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.