Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
EDM1
DAL4
DAL beat EDM 4-1, with the chances close: 3.27 expected goals to 2.99. R. Hintz led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Ekholm had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Oettinger stopped 30 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| DAL | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
- 2nd 19:34DALM. DuchenePP0.06 xG
- 3rd 12:06DALM. Duchene0.21 xG
- 3rd 13:16DALR. Hintz0.25 xG
- 3rd 17:38EDML. Draisaitl0.07 xG
- 3rd 18:01DALJ. RobertsonEN0.87 xG
Team Stats
EDMDAL
31Shots on goal24
2.99Expected goals3.27
72Shot attempts51
255v5 shots on goal22
0/2Power play1/1
10Hits23
12Blocked shots22
2Penalty minutes4
23Giveaways15
8Takeaways10
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
EDM 2.99 xGDAL 3.27 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:35 | 3:38 |
| L. Draisaitl | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:04 | 3:37 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:43 | 3:38 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:03 | 3:39 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:00 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:35 | 0:21 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:06 | 0:23 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:09 | 0:00 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:21 | 0:17 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 12:20 | 0:00 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:32 | 0:00 |
| D. Ryan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:28 | 0:00 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:54 | 3:50 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:47 | 0:15 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 20:20 | 0:00 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:53 | 0:22 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:27 | 0:00 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 23 | 20 | 3 | .870 | 58:51 | Loss |
| C. Pickard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Hintz | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 16:57 | 0:03 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:09 | 0:00 |
| M. Duchene | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:35 | 0:03 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:19 | 0:00 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:05 | 0:03 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:15 | 0:00 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:17 | 0:03 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:53 | 0:00 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:56 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:02 | 0:00 |
| M. Blümel | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:00 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 25:09 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:20 | 0:03 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 23:28 | 0:00 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:35 | 0:00 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:07 | 0:00 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 31 | 30 | 1 | .968 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | EDM 3.0, DAL 3.0 | EDM 1, DAL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | EDM 27.9, DAL 27.3 | EDM 31, DAL 24 |
| Win chance | DAL 51% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM C. McDavid | 2.9 | 3 | 1.39 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 2.9 | 4 | 0.73 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.7 | 1 | 0.80 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.5 | 2 | 0.96 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.4 | 5 | 0.76 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 2.3 | 2 | 1.08 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| EDM V. Arvidsson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 2.1 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.0 | 2 | 0.83 | 3 | 33% | 1 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 2.0 | 5 | 0.43 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.9 | 0 | 0.74 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 1.9 | 3 | 0.54 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 1.8 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 1.8 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.7 | 3 | 0.67 | 2 | 26% | 2 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 1.7 | 3 | 0.57 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.7 | 0 | 0.72 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.5 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.4 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL M. Blümel | 0.9 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.8 | 3 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 0.8 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL B. Smith | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.7 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM D. Ryan | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.5 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.