Game Recap: EDM 3, DAL 4 (SO), November 4, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM3

Final/SOTue, Nov 4, 2025Every game that night

DAL4

DAL beat EDM 4-3 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 5.30 expected goals to 2.95. M. Rantanen led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). C. DeSmith stopped 23 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
EDM	2	0	1	0	3
DAL	0	1	2	1	4

1st 3:40EDMV. Podkolzin0.15 xG
1st 7:07EDML. DraisaitlPP0.11 xG
2nd 9:10DALM. RantanenPP0.58 xG
3rd 7:51EDMC. McDavid0.15 xG
3rd 8:37DALM. Rantanen0.23 xG
3rd 12:20DALM. Heiskanen0.42 xG

Team Stats

EDMDAL

26Shots on goal27

2.95Expected goals5.30

49Shot attempts62

205v5 shots on goal17

1/3Power play1/4

18Hits18

18Blocked shots8

8Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways14

10Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.95 xGDAL 5.30 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM25 on goal, 3 scored

DAL27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	1	1	2	3	0	1	0	0	25:13	2:31
J. Roslovic	C	0	2	2	4	1	0	0	2	18:05	2:18
L. Draisaitl	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	2	24:16	2:28
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	20:17	2:20
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	19:26	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	1	0	1	2	4	2	0	0	17:09	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:11	0:45
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	13:42	0:00
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:44	0:46
I. Howard	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:09	0:46
N. Philp	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:28	0:00
D. Tomasek	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	6:12	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	25:40	2:22
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	-1	0	25:05	0:58
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	2	1	4	-1	2	22:55	0:08
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	+1	0	21:34	0:43
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:03	0:05
A. Regula	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	13:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	27	24	3	.889	65:00	OT loss
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	0	3	3	3	0	0	+1	0	23:29	4:02
M. Rantanen	RW	2	1	3	4	1	1	+1	0	22:48	5:05
J. Robertson	LW	0	1	1	5	0	0	+1	0	24:23	5:12
T. Seguin	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	24:52	4:28
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	24:16	1:05
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:27	1:34
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:46	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:07	0:00
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:41	0:31
A. Erne	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	7:52	0:03
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	6:12	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	1	0	1	4	0	2	0	0	27:59	4:20
A. Petrovic	D	0	1	1	0	5	0	+1	0	12:19	0:00
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	23:30	1:16
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	22:41	0:24
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	14:26	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	13:04	0:00
K. Capobianco	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	6:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. DeSmith	26	23	3	.885	65:00	Win
J. Oettinger	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1A. Mangiapane15:54C. McDavid17:25R. Nugent-Hopkins15:38

Line 2J. Roslovic15:03V. Podkolzin14:42L. Draisaitl16:41

Line 3A. Henrique11:02T. Frederic13:42M. Savoie9:35

Line 4I. Howard7:23D. Tomasek6:12N. Philp6:28

Pair 1D. Nurse18:51J. Walman18:25

Pair 2M. Ekholm17:54E. Bouchard18:23

Pair 3B. Kulak14:13A. Regula13:14

DAL

Line 1J. Robertson17:10W. Johnston17:08M. Rantanen15:47

Line 2T. Seguin18:25S. Steel19:12M. Bourque13:16

Line 3C. Blackwell11:03J. Hryckowian11:07O. Bäck13:23

Line 4A. Erne7:49N. Bastian6:12

Pair 1E. Lindell18:46M. Heiskanen19:13

Pair 2T. Harley18:08I. Lyubushkin12:42

Pair 3A. Petrovic12:19L. Bichsel12:49

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.0, DAL 3.1	EDM 3, DAL 4
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	EDM 30.0, DAL 25.7	EDM 26, DAL 27
Win chance	DAL 51%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	3.3	5	1.18	1	39%	0
EDM C. McDavid	3.1	3	1.45	2	34%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.8	2	1.24	1	40%	1
DAL W. Johnston	2.8	3	0.90	3	36%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.7	2	0.73	1	14%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.7	4	1.22	3	38%	2
DAL T. Seguin	2.3	3	0.80	0	29%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.1	2	0.32	0	8%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	2.1	4	0.52	2	19%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.0	0	0.74	1	22%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.0	4	0.61	1	12%	1
EDM J. Walman	1.9	4	0.36	0	8%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.8	3	0.35	0	7%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.6	2	0.37	0	16%	0
EDM D. Tomasek	1.6	1	0.34	0	13%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.5	2	0.50	0	12%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	2	0.34	1	12%	1
EDM A. Henrique	1.4	0	0.35	0	17%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.3	0	0.38	1	18%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.3	2	0.20	0	4%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.2	1	0.44	0	13%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.2	0	0.25	0	13%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.2	1	0.16	0	9%	0
EDM A. Regula	1.1	0	0.10	0	4%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.1	1	0.24	0	11%	0
EDM I. Howard	1.0	0	0.22	0	10%	0
EDM N. Philp	1.0	0	0.21	0	9%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.0	0	0.28	0	7%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	0.9	0	0.17	0	10%	0
DAL A. Erne	0.8	1	0.21	0	9%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	0.7	0	0.09	1	3%	0
DAL N. Bastian	0.7	0	0.16	0	8%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.7	1	0.15	0	5%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	0	0.16	0	2%	0
DAL K. Capobianco	0.6	0	0.12	0	4%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.5	0	0.22	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.