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Game Recap
EDM2
DAL7
DAL beat EDM 7-2, with the chances close: 3.34 expected goals to 2.66. J. Robertson led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). Z. Hyman had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. J. Oettinger stopped 30 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| DAL | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
- 1st 1:23DALJ. Benn0.19 xG
- 1st 13:09DALS. Steel0.09 xG
- 1st 15:11DALJ. Robertson0.16 xG
- 2nd 5:43DALW. JohnstonPP0.21 xG
- 2nd 6:15DALJ. Robertson0.16 xG
- 2nd 7:53EDME. Bouchard0.15 xG
- 2nd 11:59EDMJ. Dickinson0.07 xG
- 3rd 1:32DALJ. BennPP0.12 xG
- 3rd 18:57DALM. Duchene0.14 xG
Team Stats
EDMDAL
32Shots on goal27
2.66Expected goals3.34
50Shot attempts44
215v5 shots on goal22
0/3Power play2/4
24Hits14
7Blocked shots7
24Penalty minutes22
24Giveaways14
3Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
EDM 2.66 xGDAL 3.34 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Draisaitl | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:36 | 4:54 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:47 | 0:18 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 13:16 | 0:00 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:57 | 4:52 |
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 4 | 17:45 | 4:54 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:32 | 4:50 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:18 |
| M. Savoie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:20 |
| J. Samanski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:53 | 0:00 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 11:49 | 0:00 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:17 | 0:00 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:51 | 4:54 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:51 | 0:01 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:18 | 0:00 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 6 | 18:45 | 0:21 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 18:17 | 0:18 |
| S. Stastney | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:50 | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Robertson | LW | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:17 | 4:03 |
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 | 18:18 | 4:00 |
| S. Steel | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:49 | 0:11 |
| M. Duchene | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:46 | 3:27 |
| J. Benn | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 3:01 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 | 16:16 | 0:59 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 11:01 | 0:00 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:14 | 1:32 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 13:47 | 1:14 |
| A. Erne | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:37 | 0:08 |
| A. Hyry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:49 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 23:00 | 3:15 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 2 | 21:14 | 0:44 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 21:08 | 1:51 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:08 | 0:10 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:06 | 0:00 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 16:00 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 32 | 30 | 2 | .938 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
EDM
Line 1Z. Hyman12:19C. McDavid12:37R. Nugent-Hopkins11:44
Line 2L. Draisaitl12:28V. Podkolzin13:42K. Kapanen11:32
Line 3T. Frederic11:49J. Samanski11:03A. Henrique10:01
Line 4J. Dickinson10:34M. Savoie11:07J. Roslovic13:29
Pair 1M. Ekholm16:05E. Bouchard16:43
Pair 3S. Stastney14:14J. Walman14:26
DAL
Line 1M. Bourque14:43W. Johnston14:18J. Robertson13:14
Line 2M. Bunting13:39A. Erne13:15J. Hryckowian10:44
Line 3M. Duchene11:44S. Steel14:09J. Benn10:33
Line 4C. Blackwell8:48O. Bäck8:50A. Hyry7:58
Pair 1E. Lindell16:44M. Heiskanen15:20
Pair 2T. Harley17:01N. Lundkvist15:54
Pair 3T. Myers14:54L. Bichsel15:27
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | EDM 3.0, DAL 3.4 | EDM 2, DAL 7 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | EDM 26.6, DAL 26.3 | EDM 32, DAL 27 |
| Win chance | DAL 57% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.2 | 1 | 1.42 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.2 | 3 | 1.17 | 4 | 39% | 2 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.7 | 6 | 0.86 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 2.7 | 6 | 0.78 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 2.6 | 0 | 1.22 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.5 | 2 | 0.92 | 3 | 35% | 1 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 2.1 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 1.9 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 1.9 | 0 | 0.75 | 3 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.8 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| EDM J. Walman | 1.8 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.7 | 1 | 0.82 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| DAL M. Bunting | 1.7 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| EDM J. Roslovic | 1.7 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.6 | 2 | 0.71 | 2 | 23% | 2 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 1.6 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.5 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.5 | 3 | 0.35 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL A. Hyry | 1.5 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM M. Savoie | 1.3 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.3 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 1.2 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.2 | 1 | 0.42 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| EDM C. Murphy | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL T. Myers | 1.0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM J. Dickinson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.0 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL A. Erne | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM T. Frederic | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM S. Stastney | 0.8 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.6 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM J. Samanski | 0.5 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.