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Game Recap
EDM3
FLA4
FLA beat EDM 4-3, with the chances close: 2.83 expected goals to 2.47. FLA outshot EDM 36 to 27. A. Lundell led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). E. Rodrigues had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. S. Bobrovsky stopped 24 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| FLA | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 12:28FLAU. Balinskis0.02 xG
- 1st 14:41EDMB. Kulak0.05 xG
- 2nd 15:30FLAA. Lundell0.06 xG
- 2nd 17:30EDML. Draisaitl0.14 xG
- 3rd 11:08FLAN. Schmidt0.10 xG
- 3rd 13:51FLAC. Verhaeghe0.31 xG
- 3rd 16:35EDMZ. Hyman0.33 xG
Team Stats
EDMFLA
27Shots on goal36
2.47Expected goals2.83
53Shot attempts69
195v5 shots on goal19
0/2Power play0/6
15Hits26
21Blocked shots17
17Penalty minutes9
10Giveaways11
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
EDM 2.47 xGFLA 2.83 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:46 | 3:04 |
| L. Draisaitl | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 21:47 | 3:09 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:15 | 3:07 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 8:37 | 0:00 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:10 | 3:08 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:50 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 13:12 | 0:02 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:43 | 0:49 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:02 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:02 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 7 | 9:24 | 0:54 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Klingberg | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15:33 | 0:40 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 23:42 | 0:41 |
| B. Kulak | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 8 | +1 | 0 | 22:44 | 0:02 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 26:17 | 3:17 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:23 | 0:00 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:47 | 0:13 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 36 | 32 | 4 | .889 | 59:14 | Loss |
| C. Pickard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lundell | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 15:25 | 2:17 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:25 | 7:58 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:48 | 7:52 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7:55 | 0:00 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:18 | 7:57 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:44 | 7:32 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:11 | 1:17 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:33 | 1:52 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:06 | 1:07 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:46 | 0:19 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:49 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 25:37 | 7:51 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:15 | 2:08 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:43 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:17 | 2:03 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:27 | 0:57 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:38 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 59:45 | Win |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | EDM 2.9, FLA 3.2 | EDM 3, FLA 4 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | EDM 28.1, FLA 31.5 | EDM 27, FLA 36 |
| Win chance | FLA 54% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 3.1 | 1 | 0.82 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.0 | 5 | 0.62 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 2.9 | 3 | 1.16 | 1 | 39% | 1 |
| EDM C. McDavid | 2.9 | 2 | 1.32 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.7 | 3 | 0.95 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.7 | 3 | 0.74 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 2.6 | 3 | 0.63 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.3 | 2 | 1.00 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| EDM V. Arvidsson | 2.2 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.1 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.0 | 8 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 2.0 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.9 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 1.9 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.9 | 3 | 0.45 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.8 | 3 | 0.54 | 3 | 17% | 1 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.6 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.4 | 5 | 0.27 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| EDM J. Klingberg | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.2 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.0 | 3 | 0.19 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 0.9 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.8 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.