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Game Recap
EDM2
NJD3
NJD beat EDM 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.42 expected goals to 3.37. EDM outshot NJD 33 to 22. J. Bratt led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Allen stopped 31 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| NJD | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
- 2nd 3:58NJDB. Pesce0.29 xG
- 2nd 10:05EDML. Draisaitl0.10 xG
- 3rd 4:18EDME. Bouchard0.01 xG
- 3rd 6:50NJDJ. Bratt0.05 xG
- 3rd 8:25NJDS. Nemec0.05 xG
Team Stats
EDMNJD
33Shots on goal22
3.37Expected goals2.42
61Shot attempts57
295v5 shots on goal19
0/1Power play0/3
20Hits13
16Blocked shots11
4Penalty minutes2
16Giveaways14
4Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
EDM 3.37 xGNJD 2.42 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 25:06 | 2:00 |
| L. Draisaitl | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 24:48 | 2:00 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:05 | 1:03 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:24 | 1:03 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:35 | 0:00 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:50 | 0:00 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:00 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:35 | 0:57 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:16 | 0:00 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:10 | 0:00 |
| M. Jones | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 4:45 | 0:00 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:41 | 1:03 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:19 | 0:57 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:27 | 0:00 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 25:34 | 0:57 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:13 | 0:00 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 11:15 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 22 | 19 | 3 | .864 | 58:17 | Loss |
| C. Pickard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Bratt | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 20:59 | 4:35 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:12 | 4:10 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:24 | 3:58 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:00 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:20 | 4:06 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:32 | 1:42 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:23 | 1:28 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:02 | 1:50 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:40 | 1:38 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:31 | 0:10 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:59 | 0:00 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:42 | 0:00 |
| B. Pesce | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:59 | 0:27 |
| S. Nemec | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:58 | 0:59 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:15 | 4:34 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:30 | 0:00 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:57 | 0:23 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Allen | 33 | 31 | 2 | .939 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Markstrom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | EDM 3.2, NJD 3.0 | EDM 2, NJD 3 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | EDM 28.5, NJD 27.9 | EDM 33, NJD 22 |
| Win chance | EDM 52% | NJD won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM C. McDavid | 2.9 | 2 | 1.42 | 2 | 37% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 2.8 | 0 | 0.69 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 2.7 | 3 | 1.20 | 1 | 41% | 1 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.7 | 5 | 0.79 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 2.6 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.4 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.3 | 2 | 0.82 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| EDM J. Walman | 2.2 | 3 | 0.44 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.1 | 3 | 0.91 | 3 | 25% | 1 |
| EDM V. Arvidsson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 1.9 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.7 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NJD C. Glass | 1.7 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 1.7 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.6 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.5 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.5 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.5 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.4 | 3 | 0.26 | 2 | 6% | 1 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.2 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.0 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bastian | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM M. Jones | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD C. Lazar | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.8 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NJD S. Nemec | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| NJD B. Dumoulin | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.7 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.