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Game Recap
EDM3
FinalSat, Oct 18, 2025Every game that night
NJD5

NJD beat EDM 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.55 expected goals to 2.42. J. Hughes led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Allen stopped 27 of 30.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
EDM0123
NJD0235
  1. 2nd 8:07NJDJ. Hughes0.11 xG
  2. 2nd 16:02NJDJ. BrattPP0.07 xG
  3. 2nd 18:16EDMR. Nugent-Hopkins0.14 xG
  4. 3rd 10:37NJDC. BrownSH0.19 xG
  5. 3rd 12:33NJDJ. Hughes0.22 xG
  6. 3rd 16:30EDMR. Nugent-Hopkins0.19 xG
  7. 3rd 18:53NJDD. MercerEN0.43 xG
  8. 3rd 19:57EDMC. Lazar0.06 xG

Team Stats

EDMNJD
30Shots on goal23
2.42Expected goals3.55
57Shot attempts51
265v5 shots on goal18
0/3Power play1/3
20Hits24
13Blocked shots15
6Penalty minutes6
23Giveaways10
4Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.42 xGNJD 3.55 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdNJD goal, 8:07NJD goal, 16:02EDM goal, 18:16NJD goal, 10:37NJD goal, 12:33EDM goal, 16:30NJD goal, 18:53EDM goal, 19:57

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM30 on goal, 3 scored
NJD23 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McDavidC022200-1022:254:49
R. Nugent-HopkinsC202301-1219:254:39
J. RoslovicC011300+1012:591:21
A. HenriqueC011112+1012:271:13
C. LazarC1011200010:210:00
L. DraisaitlC000210-1022:204:40
V. PodkolzinRW0001420017:290:00
M. SavoieC0002210014:341:11
K. KapanenRW000121-1013:430:00
D. TomasekRW0000000012:561:36
T. FredericC0001210012:401:11
A. MangiapaneLW000000-2012:323:10
D. NurseD0112220020:210:00
T. EmbersonD0111200014:020:07
E. BouchardD000402-1025:314:40
M. EkholmD000411-1222:001:14
B. KulakD0001100018:010:09
T. StecherD000100+1214:070:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Pickard22184.81858:03Loss
S. Skinner000–0:00

NJD Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. HughesC213400+1020:173:09
N. HischierC022403-1021:033:04
J. BrattLW112120+1216:042:58
D. MercerC101201+1219:202:53
C. BrownRW101201+1014:520:00
L. GlendeningC0111400011:100:17
T. MeierRW000000+1016:481:01
O. PalatLW0002310012:570:55
C. GlassC0001000212:260:43
A. GritsyukRW0002010012:240:39
P. CotterLW000131-1010:400:00
B. HalonenLW000150-109:120:03
B. PesceD011003+3021:170:19
D. HamiltonD0000110021:372:44
B. DillonD000041+1020:240:00
J. SiegenthalerD0000210019:040:00
L. HughesD0002000017:341:25
S. NemecD000001-2016:510:10
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Allen30273.90060:00Win
N. Daws000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1V. Podkolzin15:40K. Kapanen13:43L. Draisaitl15:05
Line 2R. Nugent-Hopkins12:37C. McDavid14:42D. Tomasek10:46
Line 3T. Frederic11:29M. Savoie11:27J. Roslovic11:38
Line 4A. Henrique9:12C. Lazar9:39A. Mangiapane8:11
Pair 1M. Ekholm16:42E. Bouchard17:15
Pair 2D. Nurse18:55T. Stecher13:36
Pair 3B. Kulak16:32T. Emberson12:46

NJD

Line 1N. Hischier14:02T. Meier14:14D. Mercer12:58
Line 2O. Palat11:40J. Hughes15:42J. Bratt11:56
Line 3C. Brown12:21A. Gritsyuk11:45C. Glass11:05
Line 4P. Cotter10:29B. Halonen9:09L. Glendening8:21
Pair 1J. Siegenthaler17:04D. Hamilton16:38
Pair 2B. Dillon14:42S. Nemec16:41
Pair 3B. Pesce14:59L. Hughes16:09

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreEDM 3.4, NJD 3.0EDM 3, NJD 5
Total goals6.38
Shots on goalEDM 29.7, NJD 26.7EDM 30, NJD 23
Win chanceEDM 56%NJD won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NJD J. Hughes3.641.03334%2
NJD T. Meier3.200.80033%0
EDM C. McDavid3.221.55238%0
EDM E. Bouchard3.040.92018%0
EDM L. Draisaitl2.921.34044%0
NJD D. Hamilton2.400.55015%0
NJD N. Hischier2.440.92232%0
NJD J. Bratt2.310.93225%1
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins2.130.75224%2
EDM D. Nurse2.020.3719%0
EDM M. Ekholm1.840.4309%0
NJD D. Mercer1.820.52124%1
NJD L. Hughes1.520.5309%0
NJD C. Brown1.520.38114%1
EDM J. Roslovic1.530.41116%0
NJD C. Glass1.410.34013%0
EDM B. Kulak1.310.2606%0
NJD B. Pesce1.300.2716%0
EDM K. Kapanen1.210.29012%0
NJD O. Palat1.220.40016%0
EDM M. Savoie1.220.20010%0
EDM T. Frederic1.210.27014%0
EDM A. Mangiapane1.200.36017%0
EDM A. Henrique1.110.33117%0
EDM V. Podkolzin1.010.25010%0
NJD P. Cotter1.010.24013%0
NJD S. Nemec0.900.2205%0
NJD J. Siegenthaler0.900.1604%0
EDM T. Stecher0.810.1204%0
NJD B. Halonen0.810.1509%0
EDM C. Lazar0.710.1818%1
EDM T. Emberson0.710.1613%0
NJD B. Dillon0.600.2004%0
NJD L. Glendening0.610.1217%0

Shots on goal: 25 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.