Game Recap: EDM 3, NJD 4 (SO), November 3, 2026

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Game Recap

EDM3

Final/SOTue, Nov 3, 2026Every game that night

NJD4

NJD beat EDM 4-3 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 3.28 expected goals to 1.67. NJD outshot EDM 34 to 21. J. Hughes led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). D. Hamilton had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. C. Hellebuyck stopped 18 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
EDM	1	1	1	0	3
NJD	0	3	0	1	4

1st 8:29EDME. Bouchard0.05 xG
2nd 7:42NJDC. BrownPP0.41 xG
2nd 14:50NJDJ. Hughes0.05 xG
2nd 15:35NJDJ. HughesPP0.28 xG
2nd 18:16EDMR. Nugent-HopkinsPP0.09 xG
3rd 1:00EDML. DraisaitlPP0.10 xG

Team Stats

EDMNJD

21Shots on goal34

1.67Expected goals3.28

43Shot attempts71

155v5 shots on goal24

2/4Power play2/5

23Hits13

15Blocked shots10

10Penalty minutes8

15Giveaways20

3Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 1.67 xGNJD 3.28 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM20 on goal, 3 scored

NJD34 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kapanen	RW	0	2	2	0	1	0	0	0	19:59	4:18
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	2	19:30	4:18
C. McDavid	C	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	24:15	4:18
L. Draisaitl	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	22:46	4:18
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	19:16	0:00
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	2	14:37	0:00
O. Michaels	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	12:56	0:00
F. Hallander	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	11:58	0:00
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	11:35	0:00
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:55	0:00
A. Formenton	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:18	0:00
M. Jones	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	9:25	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	1	1	2	1	0	0	+1	0	27:26	4:18
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	22:28	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	0	5	-1	0	23:04	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	2	20:19	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	15:57	0:00
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	11:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	34	31	3	.912	64:47	OT loss
M. Tomkins	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hughes	C	2	1	3	5	0	3	+1	0	25:17	4:19
C. Brown	RW	1	1	2	3	1	1	0	0	16:37	4:10
J. Bratt	LW	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	20:09	4:13
N. Hischier	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	2	18:09	2:42
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	20:32	2:54
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	17:50	2:18
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	16:37	1:57
A. Mantha	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	2	13:21	3:33
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	12:58	0:17
A. Lombardi	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:54	0:00
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	9:49	0:00
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	9:33	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	28:43	4:33
D. Hamilton	D	0	1	1	6	2	2	+1	0	22:52	2:28
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	20:38	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	20:30	0:11
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:38	0:00
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	21	18	3	.857	65:00	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1L. Draisaitl15:51C. McDavid16:16V. Podkolzin17:50

Line 2R. Nugent-Hopkins13:10C. Dach13:24K. Kapanen11:10

Line 3F. Hallander11:58O. Michaels10:29M. Jones9:25

Line 4J. Dickinson9:19M. Joseph8:51A. Formenton8:22

Pair 1M. Ekholm19:32E. Bouchard20:04

Pair 2C. Murphy16:32R. Shea16:51

Pair 3S. Mukhamadullin13:13J. Walman11:33

NJD

Line 1T. Meier16:24L. Evangelista14:16N. Hischier12:01

Line 2J. Hughes18:09A. Gritsyuk13:47J. Bratt13:04

Line 3C. Brown9:35A. Lombardi9:41C. Glass8:56

Line 4A. Mantha9:48E. Rodrigues11:15J. Boqvist9:20

Pair 1L. Hughes19:04B. Pesce17:37

Pair 2D. Hamilton17:10J. Siegenthaler17:38

Pair 3J. Kovacevic13:38D. Chisholm12:27

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 16 overs hit (38%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
EDM C. McDavid	3.5	+145	-175	1	Under
NJD J. Hughes	3.5	+105	-130	5	Over
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.5	+144	-185	1	Under
NJD D. Hamilton	2.5	+148	-190	6	Over
EDM E. Bouchard	2.5	-106	-110	1	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.5	-140	+120	4	Over
NJD N. Hischier	2.5	+142	-160	0	Under
NJD T. Meier	2.5	-140	+120	2	Under
EDM C. Dach	1.5	-110	-115	3	Over
NJD E. Rodrigues	1.5	-115	+105	1	Under
NJD J. Bratt	1.5	-140	+125	4	Over
EDM K. Kapanen	1.5	-120	+100	0	Under
NJD L. Evangelista	1.5	-154	+140	2	Over
NJD L. Hughes	1.5	-180	+160	1	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.5	-150	+120	1	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	-120	-105	1	Under

5 of 36 overs hit (14%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
EDM A. Formenton	0.5	+800	-1200	0	Under
NJD A. Gritsyuk	0.5	+285	-450	0	Under
NJD A. Lombardi	0.5	+800	-1000	0	Under
NJD A. Mantha	0.5	+340	-600	0	Under
NJD B. Pesce	0.5	+2200	-2800	0	Under
NJD C. Brown	0.5	+330	-500	1	Over
EDM C. Dach	0.5	+850	-1400	0	Under
NJD C. Glass	0.5	+600	-800	0	Under
EDM C. McDavid	0.5	+140	-180	0	Under
EDM C. Murphy	0.5	+2400	-4000	0	Under
NJD D. Chisholm	0.5	+1800	-2800	0	Under
NJD D. Hamilton	0.5	+700	-1000	0	Under
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	+370	-475	1	Over
NJD E. Rodrigues	0.5	+475	-750	0	Under
EDM F. Hallander	0.5	+1100	-3500	0	Under
NJD J. Boqvist	0.5	+575	-900	0	Under
NJD J. Bratt	0.5	+290	-370	0	Under
EDM J. Dickinson	0.5	+950	-2000	0	Under
NJD J. Hughes	0.5	+170	-190	2	Over
NJD J. Kovacevic	0.5	+1600	-4000	0	Under
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.5	+1800	-5000	0	Under
EDM J. Walman	0.5	+1500	-3500	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+500	-750	0	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	+135	-175	1	Over
NJD L. Evangelista	0.5	+340	-350	0	Under
NJD L. Hughes	0.5	+475	-700	0	Under
EDM M. Ekholm	0.5	+1100	-1600	0	Under
EDM M. Jones	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
EDM M. Joseph	0.5	+950	-2500	0	Under
NJD N. Hischier	0.5	+200	-240	0	Under
EDM O. Michaels	0.5	+1000	-2500	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	+290	-370	1	Over
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+1400	-2800	0	Under
EDM S. Mukhamadullin	0.5	+1600	-5000	0	Under
NJD T. Meier	0.5	+250	-360	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+320	-450	0	Under

11 of 21 overs hit (52%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
NJD A. Gritsyuk	0.5	+220	-290	0	Under
NJD A. Mantha	0.5	+270	-370	0	Under
NJD B. Pesce	0.5	+295	-425	0	Under
NJD C. Brown	0.5	+310	-375	1	Over
EDM C. Dach	0.5	+350	-425	0	Under
EDM C. McDavid	0.5	-215	+165	1	Over
NJD D. Hamilton	0.5	+200	-245	1	Over
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	-132	+105	1	Over
NJD J. Bratt	0.5	+106	-125	1	Over
NJD J. Hughes	0.5	-120	+105	1	Over
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+300	-440	2	Over
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	-115	+100	0	Under
NJD L. Evangelista	0.5	+164	-190	0	Under
NJD L. Hughes	0.5	+130	-160	1	Over
EDM M. Ekholm	0.5	+230	-320	1	Over
EDM M. Joseph	0.5	+300	–	0	Under
NJD N. Hischier	0.5	+155	-185	1	Over
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	+165	-185	1	Over
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+245	-340	0	Under
NJD T. Meier	0.5	+205	-235	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+260	-345	0	Under

10 of 22 overs hit (45%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
EDM C. McDavid	1.5	+102	-125	1	Under
NJD J. Hughes	1.5	+190	-230	3	Over
EDM L. Draisaitl	1.5	+154	-170	1	Under
NJD A. Gritsyuk	0.5	+110	-130	0	Under
NJD A. Mantha	0.5	+145	-180	0	Under
NJD B. Pesce	0.5	+260	-370	0	Under
NJD C. Brown	0.5	+145	-175	2	Over
EDM C. Dach	0.5	+215	-250	0	Under
NJD D. Hamilton	0.5	+160	-175	1	Over
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	-190	+160	2	Over
NJD E. Rodrigues	0.5	+180	-250	0	Under
NJD J. Bratt	0.5	-160	+130	1	Over
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+165	-180	2	Over
NJD L. Evangelista	0.5	-110	-111	0	Under
NJD L. Hughes	0.5	-115	+100	1	Over
EDM M. Ekholm	0.5	+180	-240	1	Over
EDM M. Joseph	0.5	+220	–	0	Under
NJD N. Hischier	0.5	-145	+125	1	Over
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	-113	-105	2	Over
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+200	-275	0	Under
NJD T. Meier	0.5	-105	-115	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+125	-145	0	Under

9 of 16 overs hit (56%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
NJD A. Gritsyuk	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
NJD A. Mantha	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
NJD C. Brown	0.5	+340	-750	2	Over
EDM C. McDavid	0.5	+125	-135	1	Over
NJD D. Hamilton	0.5	+360	-800	0	Under
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	+170	-235	1	Over
NJD J. Bratt	0.5	+275	-290	0	Under
NJD J. Hughes	0.5	+195	-250	2	Over
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+340	-750	2	Over
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	+160	-175	1	Over
NJD L. Evangelista	0.5	+400	-625	0	Under
NJD L. Hughes	0.5	+310	-400	1	Over
NJD N. Hischier	0.5	+275	-400	1	Over
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	+235	-275	1	Over
NJD T. Meier	0.5	+380	-600	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+300	-450	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
EDM T. Jarry	27.5	+100	-122	31	Over
NJD C. Hellebuyck	23.5	-102	-105	18	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
EDM C. Murphy	2.5	+120	–	3	Over
EDM E. Bouchard	1.5	-170	–	0	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.1, NJD 3.3	EDM 3, NJD 4
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	EDM 25.8, NJD 30.0	EDM 21, NJD 34
Win chance	NJD 54%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.2	5	1.09	3	35%	2
EDM C. McDavid	3.0	1	1.44	1	36%	0
NJD T. Meier	3.0	2	0.61	0	29%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.6	4	1.24	1	39%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.5	1	1.03	2	17%	1
NJD L. Evangelista	2.3	2	0.71	0	21%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.3	1	0.55	0	22%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.2	0	0.77	1	30%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.1	6	0.47	1	11%	0
NJD L. Hughes	2.1	1	0.63	1	13%	0
NJD J. Bratt	1.9	4	0.84	1	24%	0
NJD E. Rodrigues	1.9	1	0.46	0	17%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.8	1	0.72	2	23%	1
EDM K. Kapanen	1.8	0	0.49	2	19%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.8	1	0.50	0	21%	0
NJD A. Lombardi	1.7	1	0.36	0	15%	0
NJD A. Mantha	1.5	1	0.55	0	21%	0
EDM A. Formenton	1.4	1	0.32	0	16%	0
EDM C. Dach	1.4	3	0.32	0	14%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.3	3	0.43	1	8%	0
EDM J. Walman	1.3	2	0.27	0	6%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.3	1	0.31	0	15%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.2	3	0.41	2	16%	1
NJD B. Pesce	1.1	2	0.27	0	5%	0
NJD J. Boqvist	1.1	2	0.28	0	13%	0
EDM C. Murphy	1.1	0	0.22	0	4%	0
EDM F. Hallander	1.0	0	0.24	0	11%	0
EDM R. Shea	0.9	0	0.38	0	6%	0
EDM M. Jones	0.9	1	0.19	0	9%	0
EDM M. Joseph	0.9	0	0.28	0	10%	0
EDM J. Dickinson	0.9	0	0.23	0	10%	0
EDM S. Mukhamadullin	0.8	2	0.17	0	3%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	0.8	0	0.19	0	4%	0
NJD D. Chisholm	0.7	1	0.19	0	3%	0
EDM O. Michaels	0.7	1	0.18	0	6%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.7	1	0.22	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.