Game Recap: EDM 3, OTT 2 (OT), October 21, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM3

Final/OTTue, Oct 21, 2025Every game that night

OTT2

EDM beat OTT 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 2.36 expected goals to 1.50. D. Perron had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. S. Skinner stopped 19 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
EDM	1	1	0	1	3
OTT	0	0	2	0	2

1st 16:31EDMC. McDavidPP0.12 xG
2nd 0:49EDMI. Howard0.14 xG
3rd 0:13OTTD. CozensPP0.11 xG
3rd 1:49OTTT. Chabot0.04 xG
OT 2:24EDMJ. WalmanPP0.18 xG

Team Stats

EDMOTT

25Shots on goal21

2.36Expected goals1.50

43Shot attempts48

185v5 shots on goal18

2/3Power play1/3

20Hits20

17Blocked shots9

6Penalty minutes6

17Giveaways13

5Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.36 xGOTT 1.50 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM24 on goal, 3 scored

OTT21 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	24:09	4:32
L. Draisaitl	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	23:11	4:35
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	17:17	3:21
M. Savoie	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	13:55	0:45
I. Howard	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	2	10:42	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:10	0:04
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	14:45	0:00
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:23	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	13:17	0:01
N. Philp	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	13:03	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	12:04	0:00
D. Tomasek	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:01	2:39
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	23:13	4:25
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	0	21:01	0:14
J. Walman	D	1	0	1	2	1	4	0	0	18:51	0:40
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	2	3	6	0	4	20:52	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	20:50	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	21	19	2	.905	62:24	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	-1	4	20:03	3:38
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	2	18:21	3:23
D. Cozens	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	-1	0	17:16	3:38
D. Perron	LW	0	1	1	4	2	1	+1	0	15:35	1:12
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:27	1:19
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:56	1:27
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:32	1:47
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	13:56	0:55
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	+1	0	13:50	0:00
O. Lycksell	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:36	0:00
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:17	0:51
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:53	0:00
T. Chabot	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	25:22	1:10
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	23:53	3:21
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	22:28	0:00
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	19:25	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:05	0:04
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	25	22	3	.880	62:24	OT loss
M. Sogaard	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1L. Draisaitl15:50C. McDavid16:44V. Podkolzin14:45

Line 2J. Roslovic14:23A. Mangiapane13:22R. Nugent-Hopkins12:13

Line 3N. Philp13:03T. Frederic12:04M. Savoie12:44

Line 4A. Henrique12:54I. Howard10:42D. Tomasek9:22

Pair 1D. Nurse20:14J. Walman17:00

Pair 2M. Ekholm19:11E. Bouchard16:12

Pair 3B. Kulak19:02T. Emberson14:10

OTT

Line 1D. Batherson14:58T. Stützle15:00D. Cozens13:38

Line 2D. Perron14:22N. Cousins13:50R. Greig12:46

Line 3L. Eller13:01O. Lycksell12:36F. Zetterlund11:26

Line 4M. Amadio11:53S. Pinto13:34C. Giroux11:19

Pair 1N. Jensen20:42T. Chabot22:34

Pair 2J. Sanderson17:06A. Zub16:32

Pair 3T. Kleven16:01N. Matinpalo12:37

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.4, OTT 3.0	EDM 3, OTT 2
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	EDM 29.6, OTT 27.7	EDM 25, OTT 21
Win chance	EDM 55%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.3	3	1.67	1	39%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.0	2	1.43	1	45%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.8	4	0.91	1	17%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.3	2	0.63	1	22%	1
OTT T. Stützle	2.3	0	0.92	1	27%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.2	1	0.73	1	24%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.1	0	0.81	1	25%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.1	1	0.65	0	27%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	1.9	1	0.50	0	10%	0
EDM D. Nurse	1.9	2	0.37	0	8%	0
EDM J. Walman	1.8	2	0.40	1	9%	1
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.8	0	0.37	0	16%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.8	1	0.43	1	9%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	1.7	1	0.49	0	18%	0
OTT T. Chabot	1.7	2	0.47	1	11%	1
EDM D. Tomasek	1.7	1	0.38	0	13%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.6	1	0.46	0	17%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.5	4	0.48	1	20%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.4	0	0.59	0	19%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.4	2	0.23	1	12%	0
EDM N. Philp	1.3	0	0.26	0	12%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.3	0	0.38	0	18%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.2	2	0.41	0	19%	0
OTT L. Eller	1.2	3	0.28	0	12%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.2	1	0.33	0	12%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.2	1	0.29	0	15%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.2	2	0.37	0	18%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.2	0	0.27	0	5%	0
EDM I. Howard	1.1	1	0.17	1	10%	1
OTT N. Cousins	1.0	2	0.24	0	9%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.0	1	0.15	0	4%	0
OTT O. Lycksell	0.9	2	0.25	0	7%	0
OTT A. Zub	0.9	1	0.22	0	5%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.8	0	0.10	0	3%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.8	0	0.19	0	4%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.7	0	0.18	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.