Game Recap: EDM 2, PHI 1 (OT), November 12, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM2

Final/OTWed, Nov 12, 2025Every game that night

PHI1

EDM beat PHI 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.56 expected goals to 2.35. EDM outshot PHI 31 to 21. M. Savoie led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). S. Skinner stopped 20 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
EDM	1	0	0	1	2
PHI	0	1	0	0	1

1st 19:05EDME. Bouchard0.10 xG
2nd 15:38PHIM. MichkovPP0.07 xG
OT 1:19EDMJ. Roslovic0.20 xG

Team Stats

EDMPHI

31Shots on goal21

2.56Expected goals2.35

54Shot attempts43

265v5 shots on goal14

0/2Power play1/3

10Hits21

10Blocked shots13

8Penalty minutes4

23Giveaways18

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.56 xGPHI 2.35 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM30 on goal, 2 scored

PHI20 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Savoie	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+2	0	16:05	0:38
C. McDavid	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	21:34	2:26
J. Roslovic	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	20:59	3:22
L. Draisaitl	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	22:07	3:18
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:25	1:34
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	17:00	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	14:53	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	12:45	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	11:10	0:03
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	10:00	2:21
N. Philp	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	9:07	0:05
I. Howard	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	7:38	1:31
E. Bouchard	D	1	0	1	4	0	1	+1	0	23:45	3:48
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	2	22:39	0:15
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	20:54	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	18:51	0:39
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	16:30	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	21	20	1	.952	61:19	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Konecny	RW	0	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	20:19	1:49
M. Michkov	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	-1	0	16:05	1:54
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	19:51	2:18
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	19:26	3:10
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	19:12	2:42
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	2	19:07	3:06
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	17:04	3:11
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:36	1:40
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	15:28	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7:50	0:00
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	6:59	0:00
R. Abols	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6:21	0:00
C. York	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	-2	0	24:44	2:16
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	24:37	2:44
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	24:09	0:10
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	20:57	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	11:22	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	31	29	2	.935	61:19	OT loss
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1J. Roslovic17:14L. Draisaitl17:11V. Podkolzin15:13

Line 2C. McDavid17:27M. Savoie13:06A. Mangiapane12:45

Line 3A. Henrique13:53M. Janmark14:22C. Lazar10:32

Line 4T. Frederic7:39I. Howard6:07N. Philp7:18

Pair 1D. Nurse18:13J. Walman19:10

Pair 2M. Ekholm15:54E. Bouchard16:51

Pair 3B. Kulak15:35T. Emberson16:30

PHI

Line 1N. Cates15:28T. Foerster15:31B. Brink13:53

Line 2T. Zegras15:52M. Michkov13:45S. Couturier14:18

Line 3C. Dvorak13:42T. Konecny16:08O. Tippett13:29

Line 4N. Deslauriers6:59R. Abols6:21G. Hathaway7:24

Pair 1N. Seeler20:12J. Drysdale21:53

Pair 2T. Sanheim20:11C. York18:52

Pair 3N. Juulsen9:46E. Andrae11:16

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.3, PHI 2.8	EDM 2, PHI 1
Total goals	6.0	3
Shots on goal	EDM 26.8, PHI 25.6	EDM 31, PHI 21
Win chance	EDM 57%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	2.9	1	1.57	1	38%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.8	0	0.65	0	27%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.6	0	1.35	0	44%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.5	4	0.89	1	17%	1
PHI T. Konecny	2.3	1	0.87	1	28%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.1	1	0.67	1	22%	1
EDM J. Roslovic	2.1	4	0.66	1	23%	1
PHI T. Zegras	2.0	1	0.80	0	24%	0
PHI S. Couturier	2.0	3	0.61	0	17%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.9	2	0.60	0	27%	0
EDM D. Nurse	1.8	4	0.39	0	9%	0
EDM J. Walman	1.7	2	0.49	0	12%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.7	3	0.57	0	19%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.7	3	0.46	0	10%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.5	2	0.54	0	18%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.5	1	0.57	0	18%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	2	0.40	0	14%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.4	0	0.38	0	10%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.3	1	0.40	0	19%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.2	1	0.42	0	19%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.1	1	0.23	0	4%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.1	1	0.19	2	11%	0
PHI R. Abols	1.1	1	0.19	0	9%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.1	0	0.24	0	5%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.1	0	0.39	0	10%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.1	0	0.28	0	14%	0
PHI C. York	1.0	1	0.36	1	8%	0
EDM N. Philp	0.9	2	0.22	0	10%	0
EDM I. Howard	0.9	3	0.23	0	11%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.9	1	0.22	0	10%	0
PHI N. Deslauriers	0.8	0	0.11	0	6%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.7	2	0.21	0	4%	0
PHI E. Andrae	0.7	2	0.09	0	2%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.7	1	0.22	0	9%	0
EDM C. Lazar	0.6	0	0.18	0	8%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.5	1	0.07	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.