Game Recap: EDM 3, PIT 5, January 9, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM3

FinalThu, Jan 9, 2025Every game that night

PIT5

PIT beat EDM 5-3, with the chances close: 2.82 expected goals to 3.18. EDM outshot PIT 43 to 26. S. Crosby led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). E. Bouchard had 10 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. A. Nedeljkovic stopped 40 of 43.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	1	2	0	3
PIT	4	1	0	5

1st 3:19PITR. Rakell0.50 xG
1st 7:22PITB. Rust0.06 xG
1st 9:46PITK. Hayes0.16 xG
1st 12:33EDML. Draisaitl0.10 xG
1st 13:41PITD. O'Connor0.12 xG
2nd 5:42PITS. CrosbyPP0.22 xG
2nd 10:58EDML. Draisaitl0.03 xG
2nd 19:15EDMR. Nugent-HopkinsPP0.17 xG

Team Stats

EDMPIT

43Shots on goal26

3.18Expected goals2.82

85Shot attempts51

325v5 shots on goal23

1/3Power play1/1

16Hits16

13Blocked shots24

4Penalty minutes8

14Giveaways9

0Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 3.18 xGPIT 2.82 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM43 on goal, 3 scored

PIT26 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	3	3	3	1	1	0	0	26:55	4:49
L. Draisaitl	C	2	0	2	7	1	0	+1	0	27:20	4:48
Z. Hyman	LW	0	1	1	3	1	2	0	0	23:30	4:47
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	-2	0	19:15	4:47
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	0	14:23	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:17	0:18
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	12:23	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	12:16	0:00
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	10:55	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	9:38	0:19
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	8:16	0:17
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	7:07	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	10	1	0	+1	0	26:53	4:44
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	26:29	0:19
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	22:04	0:22
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	0	18:02	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	11:30	0:00
J. Brown	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	0	10:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	26	21	5	.808	57:04	Loss
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Rust	RW	1	2	3	2	1	3	+1	2	23:37	0:41
S. Crosby	C	1	2	3	4	0	0	+1	0	21:20	0:41
D. O'Connor	LW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	0	12:44	0:00
R. Rakell	RW	1	0	1	1	0	4	0	0	20:57	0:41
M. Bunting	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	4	12:02	0:41
J. Puljujarvi	RW	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	0	10:06	0:00
K. Hayes	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	9:33	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	15:17	0:00
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:43	0:00
M. Nieto	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:30	0:00
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	11:22	0:00
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	10:18	0:00
M. Pettersson	D	0	2	2	1	0	5	+3	0	25:14	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	-1	0	22:22	0:41
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	+3	2	25:40	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	18:51	0:00
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:14	0:00
O. Pickering	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	43	40	3	.930	59:57	Win
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamKasperi Kapanen EDM Faces PIT, his team until Feb 20230 SOG
Old teamTristan Jarry EDM Faces PIT, his team until Dec 20250 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.6, PIT 2.9	EDM 3, PIT 5
Total goals	6.5	8
Shots on goal	EDM 32.1, PIT 27.5	EDM 43, PIT 26
Win chance	EDM 61%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.0	3	1.63	3	38%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.9	4	1.03	3	32%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.7	7	1.36	2	42%	2
PIT B. Rust	2.7	2	0.77	3	30%	1
EDM Z. Hyman	2.7	3	0.77	1	34%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.5	10	0.88	1	16%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.4	3	0.45	0	11%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.4	1	0.68	1	27%	1
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.4	5	0.63	0	21%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.2	1	0.50	1	12%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.2	3	0.69	1	14%	0
PIT M. Bunting	2.0	1	0.62	1	23%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.9	1	0.51	0	12%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.9	1	0.79	1	23%	1
EDM J. Skinner	1.7	1	0.46	0	19%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.6	2	0.37	0	7%	0
PIT J. Puljujarvi	1.6	0	0.27	1	12%	0
PIT C. Glass	1.6	0	0.35	0	13%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	1	0.33	0	13%	0
PIT D. O'Connor	1.5	2	0.31	2	14%	1
PIT K. Hayes	1.5	2	0.31	1	13%	1
EDM A. Henrique	1.4	1	0.46	0	20%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.3	1	0.40	0	12%	0
PIT A. Beauvillier	1.2	4	0.24	0	11%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.1	0	0.31	0	12%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.1	0	0.35	0	4%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	3	0.33	0	14%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.0	1	0.21	0	13%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.0	2	0.34	0	15%	0
PIT M. Pettersson	1.0	1	0.31	2	4%	0
PIT P. Joseph	1.0	1	0.20	0	5%	0
PIT M. Nieto	1.0	0	0.22	0	10%	0
EDM J. Brown	0.9	0	0.15	0	4%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.8	0	0.21	0	3%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.8	2	0.32	0	10%	0
PIT O. Pickering	0.5	0	0.14	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.