Game Recap: EDM 2, STL 3 (OT), March 13, 2026

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Game Recap

EDM2

Final/OTFri, Mar 13, 2026Every game that night

STL3

STL beat EDM 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.82 expected goals to 4.29. EDM outshot STL 38 to 25. C. Fowler led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Savoie had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Hofer stopped 36 of 38.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
EDM	0	1	1	0	2
STL	0	0	2	1	3

2nd 15:41EDMK. Kapanen0.12 xG
3rd 9:56EDMC. McDavid0.07 xG
3rd 12:22STLP. Suter0.13 xG
3rd 16:14STLC. Fowler0.02 xG
OT 4:51STLR. Thomas0.14 xG

Team Stats

EDMSTL

38Shots on goal25

4.29Expected goals2.82

65Shot attempts53

305v5 shots on goal19

0/3Power play0/1

22Hits18

13Blocked shots12

2Penalty minutes6

14Giveaways15

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 4.29 xGSTL 2.82 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM38 on goal, 2 scored

STL25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	26:28	4:55
L. Draisaitl	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	21:06	4:43
M. Savoie	C	0	1	1	5	0	0	+1	0	17:33	1:03
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	1	1	2	4	1	+1	0	15:38	1:02
K. Kapanen	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	15:23	1:00
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	2	24:11	4:58
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	18:19	4:36
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	0	4	2	-2	0	13:28	0:05
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:52	0:00
J. Samanski	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	9:55	0:00
M. Jones	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	9:46	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	9:16	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	27:35	5:08
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	-2	0	21:14	0:15
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	4	0	3	0	0	20:47	1:23
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	1	1	5	0	0	18:49	0:00
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	+1	0	16:52	0:52
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	15:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ingram	25	22	3	.880	64:51	OT loss
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	22:41	1:18
J. Kyrou	RW	0	1	1	5	0	1	+1	0	16:27	0:42
P. Suter	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	15:04	0:40
O. Sundqvist	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	12:53	0:00
J. Berggren	RW	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	12:36	0:00
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	20:26	1:20
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:14	1:18
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:43	1:17
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	13:54	0:42
O. Stenberg	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	13:00	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	11:35	0:00
J. Finley	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:00	0:00
C. Fowler	D	1	1	2	1	0	2	+2	0	23:18	0:43
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	27:57	1:15
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	+1	0	22:48	0:00
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	4	21:16	0:45
J. Holl	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	16:13	0:00
T. Lindstein	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	38	36	2	.947	64:51	Win
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman17:22C. McDavid18:26M. Savoie14:22

Line 2V. Podkolzin14:20K. Kapanen13:25L. Draisaitl13:47

Line 3J. Dickinson12:18J. Roslovic11:36J. Samanski9:47

Line 4T. Frederic9:16M. Jones9:46A. Henrique9:51

Pair 1D. Nurse18:59C. Murphy17:37

Pair 2M. Ekholm17:18E. Bouchard18:08

Pair 3J. Walman15:50S. Stastney15:12

STL

Line 1R. Thomas16:53D. Holloway16:12J. Snuggerud14:25

Line 2P. Buchnevich13:17J. Neighbours12:56J. Kyrou14:46

Line 3J. Berggren11:50O. Stenberg11:21P. Suter11:27

Line 4O. Sundqvist11:16A. Toropchenko10:03J. Finley9:32

Pair 1P. Broberg20:11L. Mailloux19:39

Pair 2C. Parayko19:15T. Lindstein12:28

Pair 3J. Holl14:04C. Fowler17:45

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDylan Holloway STL Faces EDM, his team until Jun 20242 SOG
Old teamKasperi Kapanen EDM Faces STL, his team until Nov 20241 G, 1 SOG
Old teamPhilip Broberg STL Faces EDM, his team until Jun 20241 SOG
HometownTrent Frederic EDM Plays in his hometown2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.4, STL 3.1	EDM 2, STL 3
Total goals	6.5	5
Shots on goal	EDM 28.7, STL 25.1	EDM 38, STL 25
Win chance	EDM 54%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.1	4	1.43	1	36%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.8	3	0.99	0	17%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.8	2	0.80	0	37%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.6	3	1.25	1	40%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.5	2	0.82	0	28%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	2.4	1	0.74	0	25%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.3	5	0.65	1	27%	0
EDM D. Nurse	1.9	3	0.34	0	8%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.9	2	0.74	0	25%	0
EDM J. Walman	1.8	4	0.39	0	10%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	1.7	2	0.44	0	19%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.7	2	1.00	1	25%	1
EDM M. Ekholm	1.6	4	0.46	0	8%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.6	1	0.37	1	14%	1
STL P. Suter	1.5	3	0.45	1	20%	1
STL L. Mailloux	1.4	1	0.27	0	10%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.4	2	0.35	1	15%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.4	1	0.49	0	11%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.4	5	0.36	1	14%	0
STL J. Berggren	1.3	1	0.47	1	20%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.2	1	0.34	0	9%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.2	2	0.51	0	22%	0
EDM C. Murphy	1.1	1	0.24	0	6%	0
STL O. Stenberg	1.1	0	0.43	0	13%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.0	2	0.24	0	10%	0
EDM J. Dickinson	1.0	0	0.28	0	14%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.0	1	0.42	2	6%	1
EDM A. Henrique	1.0	0	0.22	0	12%	0
EDM T. Frederic	0.9	2	0.18	0	11%	0
EDM M. Jones	0.9	2	0.16	0	7%	0
EDM S. Stastney	0.9	0	0.16	0	4%	0
STL J. Finley	0.8	0	0.22	0	10%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.8	0	0.27	1	10%	0
STL J. Holl	0.6	1	0.17	0	3%	0
EDM J. Samanski	0.5	0	0.22	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.