Game Recap: EDM 1, TBL 2 (OT), November 20, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM1

Final/OTThu, Nov 20, 2025Every game that night

TBL2

TBL beat EDM 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.73 expected goals to 2.49. TBL outshot EDM 35 to 25. N. Kucherov had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 24 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
EDM	1	0	0	0	1
TBL	0	0	1	1	2

1st 1:32EDMT. Frederic0.23 xG
3rd 17:28TBLN. Paul0.14 xG
OT 1:43TBLJ. Guentzel0.16 xG

Team Stats

EDMTBL

25Shots on goal35

2.49Expected goals2.73

59Shot attempts55

175v5 shots on goal27

0/2Power play0/3

17Hits29

10Blocked shots19

21Penalty minutes9

13Giveaways17

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.49 xGTBL 2.73 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM25 on goal, 1 scored

TBL34 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	23:14	3:59
T. Frederic	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	13:57	0:00
C. McDavid	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	24:06	4:00
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	0	20:35	4:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	18:06	3:46
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	17:25	0:14
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	+1	0	16:32	0:00
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:38	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	12:37	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:14	0:00
D. Tomasek	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	8:46	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	28:07	3:51
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	24:17	0:01
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	17:38	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	14:46	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	17	14:33	0:09
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	10:03	0:00
A. Regula	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	8:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	35	33	2	.943	61:43	OT loss
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	0	1	1	6	0	0	+1	0	23:37	4:46
J. Guentzel	C	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	2	20:39	4:18
N. Paul	LW	1	0	1	3	4	0	+1	0	15:21	1:53
B. Point	C	0	0	0	5	0	1	-1	0	20:24	4:07
B. Hagel	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	20:04	1:50
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	17:24	1:31
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	14:42	0:00
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	13:48	4:18
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	12:46	0:00
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	11:58	1:14
D. James	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:04	0:00
C. Douglas	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	5	3:32	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	1	1	4	1	2	+1	0	27:38	4:34
J. Moser	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	+1	2	21:51	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	1	1	2	4	2	0	0	21:32	0:00
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	22:08	1:29
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:45	0:00
S. Santini	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	8:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	25	24	1	.960	61:43	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman16:14C. McDavid17:06J. Roslovic16:51

Line 2L. Draisaitl16:35V. Podkolzin14:59A. Mangiapane12:37

Line 3A. Henrique11:03M. Savoie12:47T. Frederic13:57

Line 4M. Janmark8:50D. Tomasek8:46

Pair 1M. Ekholm19:45E. Bouchard18:42

Pair 2B. Kulak16:47T. Emberson13:16

Pair 3J. Walman9:22A. Regula8:35

TBL

Line 1J. Guentzel16:06B. Point15:26D. James11:04

Line 2N. Kucherov17:42B. Hagel16:00A. Cirelli13:35

Line 3Y. Gourde12:28Z. Girgensons10:25O. Bjorkstrand9:30

Line 4N. Paul13:28G. Goncalves10:44

Pair 1D. Raddysh19:39J. Moser19:45

Pair 2C. D'Astous19:31E. Lilleberg18:42

Pair 3S. Santini8:56D. Carlile13:27

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 2.9, TBL 3.5	EDM 1, TBL 2
Total goals	6.4	3
Shots on goal	EDM 27.5, TBL 26.9	EDM 25, TBL 35
Win chance	TBL 59%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.1	6	1.62	1	38%	0
EDM C. McDavid	2.9	3	1.36	0	34%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.8	4	1.14	1	40%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.7	2	0.75	0	16%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.6	1	1.18	1	41%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.5	4	0.64	0	31%	0
TBL B. Point	2.4	5	1.08	0	40%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.2	3	0.86	0	28%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	2.2	1	0.62	0	22%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.0	2	0.32	0	9%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.9	2	0.71	0	24%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.8	1	0.36	0	9%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.8	3	0.54	1	24%	1
EDM J. Walman	1.8	1	0.38	0	11%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.6	4	0.67	0	24%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.5	0	0.52	0	16%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.5	4	0.53	1	10%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.4	2	0.33	0	13%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.3	1	0.24	0	11%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.3	2	0.35	0	17%	0
TBL D. James	1.2	0	0.43	0	14%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.2	0	0.24	0	13%	0
EDM D. Tomasek	1.1	1	0.22	0	10%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.1	1	0.31	0	15%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.0	1	0.22	1	12%	1
EDM B. Kulak	1.0	1	0.16	0	4%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.0	1	0.42	0	14%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.0	1	0.29	1	6%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	0.9	0	0.35	0	6%	0
TBL S. Santini	0.8	0	0.16	0	3%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.7	1	0.15	0	3%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.7	2	0.24	1	4%	0
EDM A. Regula	0.7	0	0.06	0	3%	0
TBL D. Carlile	0.6	0	0.18	0	6%	0
TBL C. Douglas	0.6	0	0.19	0	6%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.6	0	0.17	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.