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Game Recap
EDM6
FinalSat, Dec 13, 2025Every game that night
TOR3

EDM beat TOR 6-3, with the chances close: 3.43 expected goals to 3.38. EDM outshot TOR 37 to 28. C. McDavid led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). S. Stastney had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. T. Jarry stopped 25 of 28.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
EDM1236
TOR1113
  1. 1st 3:25EDMC. McDavid0.18 xG
  2. 1st 16:03TORE. Cowan0.04 xG
  3. 2nd 4:54TORO. Ekman-Larsson0.01 xG
  4. 2nd 10:29EDMC. McDavid0.06 xG
  5. 2nd 19:29EDMD. Nurse0.14 xG
  6. 3rd 1:21EDMV. Podkolzin0.14 xG
  7. 3rd 1:55EDMV. Podkolzin0.09 xG
  8. 3rd 9:28EDMZ. Hyman0.08 xG
  9. 3rd 19:12TORS. Lorentz0.18 xG

Team Stats

EDMTOR
37Shots on goal28
3.43Expected goals3.38
69Shot attempts56
315v5 shots on goal23
0/2Power play0/1
17Hits25
10Blocked shots15
2Penalty minutes4
18Giveaways23
5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 3.43 xGTOR 3.38 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdEDM goal, 3:25TOR goal, 16:03TOR goal, 4:54EDM goal, 10:29EDM goal, 19:29EDM goal, 1:21EDM goal, 1:55EDM goal, 9:28TOR goal, 19:12

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM38 on goal, 6 scored
TOR27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
L. DraisaitlC033300+3021:083:37
C. McDavidC213200+3019:423:35
V. PodkolzinRW202450+2214:010:00
Z. HymanLW101200+3018:043:22
R. Nugent-HopkinsC011200+2017:183:23
M. SavoieC011300+2015:100:23
A. HenriqueC000100-1015:110:25
M. JanmarkC000200-1014:540:14
T. FredericC000160-1013:390:00
A. MangiapaneLW000100-1013:020:23
C. LazarC000110-1010:480:00
D. TomasekRW000301-108:180:00
D. NurseD101111+3021:500:26
E. BouchardD011201+2021:343:34
A. RegulaD011100+3021:150:00
M. EkholmD0001110018:320:38
T. EmbersonD000335-1017:120:00
S. StastneyD000401-1016:220:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
T. Jarry28253.89360:00Win
C. Pickard000–0:00

TOR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. LorentzC112320+2011:170:00
M. KniesLW011341-1018:231:17
M. DomiC011200-1215:300:43
S. LaughtonC011121+2014:370:00
E. CowanRW101221+1012:560:43
A. MatthewsC0002000017:331:17
J. TavaresC000200-3216:551:17
B. McMannC000020-1015:440:43
N. RoyC000120-2014:470:43
W. NylanderRW000000-3013:461:17
C. JarnkrokC000200-1013:290:00
N. RobertsonLW000320-2012:590:00
T. StecherD011002+1022:080:00
J. McCabeD0110450021:370:00
O. Ekman-LarssonD101311-3019:320:45
M. RiellyD000301-3021:251:15
S. BenoitD000042-1018:330:00
H. ThrunD0001010014:490:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Hildeby32276.84449:28Loss
A. Akhtyamov5501.00010:32

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1L. Draisaitl17:31V. Podkolzin14:01M. Savoie14:00
Line 2Z. Hyman14:42C. McDavid16:07R. Nugent-Hopkins12:42
Line 3M. Janmark14:40T. Frederic13:39A. Henrique14:00
Line 4A. Mangiapane12:39D. Tomasek8:18C. Lazar9:35
Pair 1D. Nurse20:36A. Regula20:28
Pair 2M. Ekholm16:40E. Bouchard16:48
Pair 3T. Emberson17:12S. Stastney16:22

TOR

Line 1M. Knies16:25A. Matthews15:45M. Domi14:47
Line 2J. Tavares15:38W. Nylander12:29B. McMann15:01
Line 3C. Jarnkrok12:21N. Roy12:48N. Robertson12:59
Line 4S. Laughton12:34S. Lorentz8:54E. Cowan12:13
Pair 1T. Stecher19:19J. McCabe18:39
Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson18:47M. Rielly19:01
Pair 3S. Benoit17:31H. Thrun14:49

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

  • HometownConnor McDavid EDM Plays near home (born in Richmond Hill)2 G, 1 A, 2 SOG
  • HometownEvan Bouchard EDM Plays near home (born in Oakville)1 A, 2 SOG
  • HometownZach Hyman EDM Plays in his hometown1 G, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreEDM 3.2, TOR 3.1EDM 6, TOR 3
Total goals6.39
Shots on goalEDM 30.4, TOR 26.5EDM 37, TOR 28
Win chanceEDM 51%EDM won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
TOR A. Matthews3.921.16044%0
EDM C. McDavid3.021.35333%2
EDM Z. Hyman2.920.74134%1
TOR J. Tavares2.820.95034%0
TOR W. Nylander2.701.14038%0
EDM L. Draisaitl2.731.19339%0
EDM E. Bouchard2.720.91118%0
TOR M. Knies2.130.84128%0
EDM D. Nurse2.110.36110%1
EDM M. Ekholm1.910.46010%0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins1.920.72121%0
TOR E. Cowan1.820.52118%1
TOR B. McMann1.800.40019%0
EDM V. Podkolzin1.640.37214%2
EDM M. Savoie1.630.31115%0
TOR M. Domi1.620.53115%0
TOR M. Rielly1.530.60010%0
EDM A. Henrique1.410.33016%0
TOR N. Robertson1.430.37018%0
TOR N. Roy1.410.47017%0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson1.330.4318%1
TOR S. Laughton1.310.35114%0
EDM A. Mangiapane1.110.30014%0
EDM D. Tomasek1.130.19010%0
TOR T. Stecher1.100.1915%0
TOR S. Lorentz1.030.26210%1
EDM T. Frederic1.010.18010%0
TOR C. Jarnkrok1.020.30014%0
TOR J. McCabe1.000.3817%0
TOR H. Thrun0.910.2105%0
EDM A. Regula0.910.0814%0
EDM T. Emberson0.830.2204%0
EDM M. Janmark0.820.2309%0
EDM S. Stastney0.840.1904%0
TOR S. Benoit0.600.1202%0
EDM C. Lazar0.610.1607%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.