Game Recap: EDM 7, VAN 3, November 9, 2024

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Game Recap

EDM7

FinalSat, Nov 9, 2024Every game that night

VAN3

EDM beat VAN 7-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.82 expected goals to 1.50. EDM outshot VAN 31 to 20. C. McDavid led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Brown had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. S. Skinner stopped 17 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	1	2	4	7
VAN	0	2	1	3

1st 2:48EDML. Draisaitl0.45 xG
2nd 3:30EDMC. Perry0.23 xG
2nd 4:43EDMV. Arvidsson0.03 xG
2nd 5:01VANE. Pettersson0.02 xG
2nd 7:00VANF. Hronek0.12 xG
3rd 6:10EDMC. Brown0.16 xG
3rd 7:16EDMC. McDavidPP0.57 xG
3rd 8:08EDMB. Kulak0.05 xG
3rd 11:05EDMC. Brown0.05 xG
3rd 19:06VANP. SuterPP0.21 xG

Team Stats

EDMVAN

31Shots on goal20

3.82Expected goals1.50

56Shot attempts39

245v5 shots on goal18

1/3Power play1/2

10Hits34

8Blocked shots11

4Penalty minutes6

19Giveaways13

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 3.82 xGVAN 1.50 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM30 on goal, 7 scored

VAN19 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	1	2	3	4	1	0	+1	0	19:56	4:03
M. Janmark	C	0	3	3	0	1	0	+2	0	12:53	0:00
L. Draisaitl	C	1	1	2	4	0	0	+2	0	19:18	4:04
Z. Hyman	LW	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	17:25	4:08
C. Brown	RW	2	0	2	5	0	0	+2	0	15:01	0:00
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	19:17	4:06
A. Henrique	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	+2	0	14:00	0:06
V. Arvidsson	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	13:51	0:00
C. Perry	RW	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	12:54	0:02
D. Ryan	C	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	10:18	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	13:50	0:00
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:17	0:04
B. Kulak	D	1	1	2	2	0	1	+2	0	20:03	0:08
T. Emberson	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	15:14	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	+2	2	22:07	0:07
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	21:36	3:14
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	20:16	0:48
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	16:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	20	17	3	.850	60:00	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Pettersson	C	1	1	2	2	1	1	-1	0	19:10	2:05
P. Suter	C	1	0	1	4	1	1	-2	0	18:29	1:52
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	-2	0	17:04	1:01
D. Heinen	LW	0	1	1	2	4	1	0	0	16:55	0:57
T. Blueger	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	16:40	0:00
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	18:48	1:49
J. Miller	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	-3	0	17:14	1:48
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	15:44	1:10
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:21	1:01
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:56	0:00
N. Aman	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	11:39	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	4	0	2	-2	2	24:52	2:20
F. Hronek	D	1	0	1	1	2	2	-1	2	20:28	0:36
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	19:12	0:09
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	17:31	0:00
E. Brannstrom	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-3	0	14:52	0:00
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	13:36	0:02
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-3	0	7:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	27	20	7	.741	51:05	Loss
A. Silovs	4	4	0	1.000	8:55

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamVasily Podkolzin EDM Faces VAN, his team until May 20241 SOG
HometownRyan Nugent-Hopkins EDM Plays near home (born in Burnaby)1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.1, VAN 3.0	EDM 7, VAN 3
Total goals	6.1	10
Shots on goal	EDM 28.2, VAN 25.2	EDM 31, VAN 20
Win chance	EDM 52%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM Z. Hyman	2.8	2	0.75	2	34%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.6	0	0.74	0	25%	0
EDM C. McDavid	2.5	4	1.26	3	31%	1
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.5	2	0.62	1	21%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.4	4	1.18	2	38%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.3	3	0.81	0	18%	0
EDM J. Skinner	2.3	1	0.58	0	24%	0
VAN J. Miller	2.2	0	1.03	0	30%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	2.1	2	0.88	2	30%	1
EDM M. Ekholm	2.1	2	0.51	0	14%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.0	1	0.36	0	11%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.0	4	0.89	1	12%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	1.9	0	0.56	1	25%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.7	2	0.72	1	20%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.5	0	0.42	0	16%	0
VAN P. Suter	1.5	4	0.38	1	18%	1
VAN N. Hoglander	1.3	1	0.39	0	19%	0
VAN D. Heinen	1.3	2	0.45	1	19%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.3	5	0.27	2	9%	2
VAN F. Hronek	1.3	1	0.44	1	7%	1
EDM A. Henrique	1.2	0	0.43	1	19%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.2	2	0.27	2	7%	1
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.2	1	0.24	0	11%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.1	1	0.35	1	10%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.0	0	0.26	0	4%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.0	1	0.28	1	13%	1
EDM M. Janmark	0.9	0	0.26	3	10%	0
VAN A. Räty	0.8	1	0.22	0	10%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.8	0	0.18	1	4%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.8	0	0.13	0	4%	0
VAN C. Soucy	0.8	2	0.21	0	7%	0
VAN E. Brannstrom	0.7	1	0.21	0	3%	0
EDM D. Ryan	0.7	1	0.16	1	8%	0
VAN N. Juulsen	0.6	0	0.12	0	3%	0
VAN N. Aman	0.6	0	0.19	0	7%	0
VAN V. Desharnais	0.5	1	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.