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Game Recap
EDM3
WSH7
WSH beat EDM 7-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.16 expected goals to 2.39. WSH outshot EDM 35 to 25. A. Ovechkin scored three for WSH. A. Ovechkin had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. C. Lindgren stopped 22 of 25.
Team Stats
EDMWSH
25Shots on goal35
2.39Expected goals4.16
47Shot attempts65
205v5 shots on goal31
1/3Power play2/2
16Hits15
14Blocked shots9
4Penalty minutes6
10Giveaways15
9Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
EDM 2.39 xGWSH 4.16 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:44 | 3:33 |
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 20:17 | 3:46 |
| L. Draisaitl | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:04 | 3:44 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:40 | 3:38 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:06 | 0:00 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:08 | 0:52 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:52 | 0:50 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:39 | 0:00 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 14:06 | 0:00 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 11:23 | 0:00 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:01 | 0:48 |
| M. Savoie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:38 | 0:00 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:31 | 3:46 |
| J. Klingberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 19:13 | 0:00 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:12 | 1:01 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:56 | 0:48 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:19 | 0:04 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:12 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Pickard | 34 | 28 | 6 | .824 | 59:42 | Loss |
| S. Skinner | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:29 | 3:17 |
| D. Strome | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 15:43 | 2:53 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:00 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:16 | 2:41 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:52 | 2:39 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 14:42 | 0:24 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:15 | 0:00 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:00 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:55 | 0:00 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:26 | 0:34 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:20 | 0:38 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:26 | 2:30 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:22 | 0:49 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 19:51 | 0:00 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:37 | 0:00 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:39 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:08 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lindgren | 25 | 22 | 3 | .880 | 60:00 | Win |
| L. Thompson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | EDM 3.1, WSH 2.9 | EDM 3, WSH 7 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | EDM 29.7, WSH 26.2 | EDM 25, WSH 35 |
| Win chance | EDM 52% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.3 | 9 | 0.83 | 3 | 35% | 3 |
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.2 | 0 | 1.40 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 3.1 | 1 | 1.25 | 1 | 41% | 1 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 2.9 | 0 | 0.67 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.8 | 5 | 0.74 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.4 | 4 | 0.35 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM V. Arvidsson | 2.3 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.2 | 5 | 0.52 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.58 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 2.0 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.9 | 4 | 0.62 | 3 | 20% | 0 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 1.9 | 3 | 0.44 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.56 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.8 | 3 | 0.76 | 3 | 24% | 1 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.8 | 1 | 0.66 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.8 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.8 | 0 | 0.64 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| EDM J. Klingberg | 1.3 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.3 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.0 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.