Game Recap: FLA 5, ANA 2, January 21, 2025

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Game Recap

FLA5

FinalTue, Jan 21, 2025Every game that night

ANA2

FLA beat ANA 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.13 expected goals to 2.36. C. Verhaeghe led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. Gudas had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. S. Bobrovsky stopped 28 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	3	0	2	5
ANA	2	0	0	2

1st 4:57ANAF. VatranoPP0.16 xG
1st 8:58FLAS. Reinhart0.13 xG
1st 17:57FLAE. Rodrigues0.09 xG
1st 18:49FLAC. Verhaeghe0.10 xG
1st 19:12ANAM. McTavish0.07 xG
3rd 0:19FLAS. Bennett0.15 xG
3rd 4:17FLAU. Balinskis0.02 xG

Team Stats

FLAANA

29Shots on goal30

3.13Expected goals2.36

59Shot attempts60

255v5 shots on goal27

0/3Power play1/2

15Hits18

15Blocked shots17

4Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways14

4Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 3.13 xGANA 2.36 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA29 on goal, 5 scored

ANA28 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Verhaeghe	C	1	1	2	5	1	0	+2	0	14:44	3:29
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	2	2	1	0	2	+1	0	14:18	1:49
T. Nosek	LW	0	2	2	0	1	1	+2	0	13:19	0:00
A. Barkov	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	19:41	3:29
S. Reinhart	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	18:43	3:27
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	18:28	3:32
S. Bennett	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	2	14:45	1:49
E. Rodrigues	C	1	0	1	2	0	3	+2	2	12:42	1:51
A. Greer	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	12:16	0:00
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	15:18	1:46
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	14:35	0:00
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	12:54	0:00
N. Mikkola	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+2	0	21:04	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	0	16:39	1:59
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	22:11	3:19
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	20:11	0:00
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	18:29	0:00
T. Bjornfot	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+2	0	16:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	30	28	2	.933	59:56	Win
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Terry	RW	0	1	1	1	0	2	-1	0	17:11	1:35
F. Vatrano	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	-1	0	17:00	1:22
R. Strome	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	16:14	1:21
M. McTavish	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	15:48	1:28
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	17:16	2:17
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	0	15:48	2:21
R. Fabbri	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	4	15:41	0:00
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	15:37	2:02
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	15:33	2:14
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:41	0:00
B. Leason	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	11:23	0:06
N. Nesterenko	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	8:11	0:06
R. Gudas	D	0	1	1	4	2	3	-1	0	23:25	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	23:12	1:30
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	-2	2	20:57	0:09
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	0	17:51	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	-2	0	16:55	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	0	14:26	2:14

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	29	24	5	.828	59:51	Loss
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamA.J. Greer ANA Faces FLA, his team until Apr 20261 A, 0 SOG
Old teamDmitry Kulikov FLA Faces ANA, his team until Feb 20230 SOG
Old teamRadko Gudas FLA Faces ANA, his team until Apr 20261 A, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 3.4, ANA 2.6	FLA 5, ANA 2
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	FLA 33.8, ANA 27.1	FLA 29, ANA 30
Win chance	FLA 63%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA M. Tkachuk	3.1	1	1.11	1	33%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	3.0	3	0.61	1	28%	1
FLA S. Bennett	2.7	3	0.65	1	26%	1
FLA G. Forsling	2.7	2	0.50	0	14%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.7	5	0.77	2	30%	1
FLA A. Barkov	2.5	1	1.10	1	31%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.4	4	0.89	1	37%	1
ANA T. Terry	2.4	1	0.79	1	29%	0
ANA M. McTavish	1.9	2	0.52	1	20%	1
FLA A. Lundell	1.9	2	0.59	0	18%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	1.9	2	0.47	1	18%	1
ANA T. Zegras	1.7	4	0.54	0	19%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.7	2	0.54	0	23%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.7	2	0.42	0	9%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.6	1	0.54	1	17%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.6	0	0.29	0	7%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	1.6	3	0.39	0	14%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.6	1	0.29	0	6%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.5	1	0.32	2	15%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.5	2	0.24	1	6%	0
ANA R. Fabbri	1.5	1	0.44	0	22%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.4	1	0.26	1	5%	1
ANA L. Carlsson	1.4	1	0.41	0	18%	0
ANA N. Nesterenko	1.4	1	0.22	0	12%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.3	4	0.25	1	5%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.3	0	0.29	0	14%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.3	2	0.39	0	15%	0
FLA N. Schmidt	1.3	2	0.30	0	7%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	1.2	0	0.27	0	6%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.2	0	0.40	0	17%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.1	3	0.31	0	6%	0
ANA B. Dumoulin	0.9	1	0.23	0	4%	0
FLA A. Greer	0.9	0	0.17	1	8%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.9	0	0.16	0	8%	0
FLA T. Bjornfot	0.8	1	0.10	0	2%	0
FLA T. Nosek	0.8	0	0.17	2	5%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.