FLA beat BOS 4-3, with the chances close: 2.49 expected goals to 2.12. M. Kastelic led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). S. Bennett had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. S. Bobrovsky stopped 24 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| BOS | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 4:53BOSJ. Beecher0.06 xG
- 1st 6:37FLAA. Lundell0.47 xG
- 1st 11:51FLAS. ReinhartPP0.12 xG
- 2nd 5:08BOSB. Carlo0.06 xG
- 2nd 9:39FLAS. ReinhartSH0.17 xG
- 2nd 12:59FLAA. Lundell0.13 xG
- 2nd 14:07BOSM. Lohrei0.09 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 2.49 xGBOS 2.12 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lundell | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:16 | 2:18 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:01 | 3:56 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:42 | 2:38 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 19:24 | 3:20 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:30 | 2:58 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:04 | 3:15 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:00 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:07 | 1:32 |
| P. Giles | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:48 | 0:04 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 7 | 9:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:15 | 0:01 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:22 | 0:50 |
| A. Boqvist | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:11 | 3:17 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 25:03 | 2:13 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:22 | 0:05 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20:13 | 0:09 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:05 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:16 | 1:29 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 59:58 | Win |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Beecher | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 13:47 | 0:00 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 10:01 | 0:00 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 21:54 | 5:12 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 21:03 | 5:07 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:54 | 4:43 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 19:18 | 4:19 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:32 | 1:32 |
| M. Poitras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:32 | 1:27 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:57 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 12:23 | 1:49 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:33 | 1:10 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:41 | 0:00 |
| B. Carlo | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:50 | 0:11 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 26:00 | 5:11 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 21:00 | 1:30 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:42 | 0:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:24 | 0:17 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 26 | 22 | 4 | .846 | 58:19 | Loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 2.8, BOS 2.7 | FLA 4, BOS 3 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 31.3, BOS 25.9 | FLA 26, BOS 27 |
| Win chance | FLA 51% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 4.0 | 2 | 1.02 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 3.3 | 3 | 0.77 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 3.0 | 2 | 0.80 | 2 | 34% | 2 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.8 | 6 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.5 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.2 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 2.1 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.1 | 4 | 0.47 | 2 | 15% | 2 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.0 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.9 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.8 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.8 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.7 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.6 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS T. Frederic | 1.6 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.5 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.5 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.5 | 4 | 0.33 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS J. Brazeau | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.3 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.2 | 0 | 0.21 | 3 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.2 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.0 | 2 | 0.29 | 2 | 6% | 1 |
| BOS M. Poitras | 1.0 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA A. Boqvist | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 0.9 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 0.8 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 0.8 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.