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Game Recap
FLA2
BOS3
BOS beat FLA 3-2, with the chances close: 2.71 expected goals to 3.03. D. Pastrnak led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Zadorov had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Swayman stopped 26 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
- 1st 4:27FLAD. Kulikov0.00 xG
- 3rd 4:49FLAM. SamoskevichPP0.23 xG
- 3rd 8:56BOSD. PastrnakPP0.20 xG
- 3rd 13:51BOSM. Lohrei0.16 xG
- 3rd 16:43BOSP. Zacha0.18 xG
Team Stats
FLABOS
28Shots on goal24
3.03Expected goals2.71
58Shot attempts56
175v5 shots on goal18
1/3Power play1/4
40Hits35
14Blocked shots13
13Penalty minutes13
14Giveaways12
6Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 3.03 xGBOS 2.71 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17:45 | 3:43 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 3:37 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:16 | 3:34 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:53 | 3:38 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:59 | 1:25 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:16 | 1:24 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:41 | 1:06 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:00 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:51 | 1:31 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:30 | 0:02 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:28 | 0:03 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:12 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 28:40 | 3:45 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 16:47 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 22:44 | 0:14 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:38 | 0:15 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:14 | 1:08 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:30 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 24 | 21 | 3 | .875 | 57:00 | Loss |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 21:54 | 5:11 |
| P. Zacha | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:14 | 2:58 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:44 | 3:31 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:49 | 4:00 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:19 | 3:33 |
| V. Lettieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:52 | 3:03 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:43 | 2:31 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:48 | 0:00 |
| P. Brown | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9:27 | 0:00 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:00 | 0:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 7 | 22:48 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:47 | 4:03 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:22 | 1:24 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:52 | 0:05 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:12 | 0:00 |
| I. Mitchell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:04 | 2:31 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 59:34 | Win |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.0, BOS 2.6 | FLA 2, BOS 3 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 31.3, BOS 25.8 | FLA 28, BOS 24 |
| Win chance | FLA 56% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.9 | 5 | 1.09 | 2 | 40% | 1 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.0 | 1 | 0.61 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.8 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.7 | 2 | 0.91 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.2 | 4 | 0.95 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.1 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.1 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.0 | 4 | 0.40 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.9 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.9 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 1.9 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.8 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.6 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.4 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.4 | 5 | 0.29 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.2 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS V. Lettieri | 1.2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.2 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.1 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.1 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA N. Sturm | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BOS H. Jokiharju | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 0.9 | 3 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS P. Brown | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS J. Lauko | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS I. Mitchell | 0.7 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.