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Game Recap
FLA5
BUF2
FLA beat BUF 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.99 expected goals to 1.77. C. Verhaeghe led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. Dahlin had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. S. Bobrovsky stopped 26 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| BUF | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 11:01FLAJ. Boqvist0.16 xG
- 1st 11:56FLAS. ReinhartPP0.20 xG
- 2nd 10:45BUFJ. ZuckerPP0.07 xG
- 2nd 12:37BUFR. Dahlin0.21 xG
- 2nd 16:44FLAC. Verhaeghe0.64 xG
- 3rd 14:35FLAS. BennettPP0.06 xG
- 3rd 15:43FLAA. Barkov0.06 xG
Team Stats
FLABUF
31Shots on goal28
2.99Expected goals1.77
53Shot attempts54
255v5 shots on goal20
2/4Power play1/3
19Hits24
11Blocked shots14
10Penalty minutes12
12Giveaways9
6Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 2.99 xGBUF 1.77 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Reinhart | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:55 | 3:43 |
| A. Barkov | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:29 | 3:40 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:57 | 3:49 |
| S. Bennett | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:55 | 2:06 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:02 | 3:47 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:58 | 2:01 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:57 | 0:07 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:43 | 0:03 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:00 | 2:05 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:57 | 0:05 |
| P. Giles | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:00 | 0:00 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:51 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:01 | 0:02 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:50 | 1:57 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:29 | 0:05 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:00 | 2:04 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:02 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:57 | 3:51 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:45 | 3:19 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:27 | 2:57 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:04 | 2:59 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 21:02 | 1:23 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:31 | 2:33 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:20 | 1:22 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:05 | 0:59 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:57 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:05 | 0:25 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:25 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:45 | 0:00 |
| N. Aube-Kubel | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:19 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 21:48 | 3:20 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 20:35 | 0:38 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:50 | 0:43 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:18 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16:14 | 0:00 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 31 | 26 | 5 | .839 | 58:10 | Loss |
| D. Levi | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.2, BUF 3.0 | FLA 5, BUF 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 30.2, BUF 28.5 | FLA 31, BUF 28 |
| Win chance | FLA 54% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 3.2 | 6 | 0.86 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.1 | 0 | 0.86 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 3.0 | 2 | 0.97 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.7 | 4 | 0.92 | 2 | 38% | 1 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.6 | 3 | 0.66 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.5 | 3 | 0.61 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.4 | 6 | 0.64 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.4 | 0 | 0.79 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.4 | 2 | 0.97 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.4 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.2 | 1 | 0.67 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.2 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.1 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.9 | 0 | 0.50 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.7 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.6 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.6 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.5 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.4 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.3 | 4 | 0.37 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.2 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.2 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 1.1 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.1 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF N. Aube-Kubel | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 0.6 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA P. Giles | 0.5 | 2 | 0.11 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.