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Game Recap
FLA3
FinalMon, Oct 12, 2026Every game that night
BUF5

BUF beat FLA 5-3, with the chances close: 3.31 expected goals to 3.57. BUF outshot FLA 32 to 23. S. Reinhart led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). O. Zellweger had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. U. Luukkonen stopped 13 of 14.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
FLA1203
BUF2125
  1. 1st 5:58BUFJ. Doan0.08 xG
  2. 1st 11:00FLAA. Lundell0.16 xG
  3. 1st 15:55BUFR. DahlinPP0.10 xG
  4. 2nd 6:26FLAS. ReinhartPP0.87 xG
  5. 2nd 11:25BUFR. McLeod0.19 xG
  6. 2nd 13:41FLAS. ReinhartPP0.33 xG
  7. 3rd 7:15BUFN. OstlundPP0.19 xG
  8. 3rd 13:20BUFT. Thompson0.13 xG

Team Stats

FLABUF
23Shots on goal32
3.57Expected goals3.31
63Shot attempts48
125v5 shots on goal25
2/4Power play2/5
42Hits14
5Blocked shots17
10Penalty minutes8
15Giveaways14
4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 3.57 xGBUF 3.31 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdBUF goal, 5:58FLA goal, 11:00BUF goal, 15:55FLA goal, 6:26BUF goal, 11:25FLA goal, 13:41BUF goal, 7:15BUF goal, 13:20

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA23 on goal, 3 scored
BUF32 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. ReinhartC202220-1020:274:54
M. TkachukLW011210-2018:254:54
B. TkachukLW011370-2016:323:45
A. LundellC101330+1014:511:16
S. VilmanisLW011001+1012:210:26
C. VerhaegheC000000-1017:373:44
E. LuostarinenC000241+1216:371:07
S. BennettC000120-2015:340:43
S. LaffertyC000021-1014:540:00
L. EllerC0000100012:360:33
G. HathawayRW0001510010:050:00
B. ImamaLW000010008:560:00
S. JonesD022420-1023:554:18
A. EkbladD011330-1420:250:40
G. ForslingD000200-1024:100:04
N. MikkolaD000050-1019:480:00
D. KulikovD0000400214:320:00
R. GudasD0000010212:270:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Markstrom1192.81820:00
A. Schmid21183.85738:08Loss

BUF Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. ThompsonC112121+1017:584:28
J. QuinnRW0221000017:354:39
P. KrebsC022021+1015:080:00
Z. BensonLW0112010019:404:49
N. OstlundC1013000017:544:38
J. DoanRW101302+2016:152:35
R. McLeodC101201+1016:040:33
K. HeleniusC0001000014:522:17
J.KulichC000211+1013:522:06
J. NorrisC0002010411:242:43
T. KozakC0000100010:460:00
B. MalenstynLW000042029:560:00
O. PowerD022100+3026:314:58
O. ZellwegerD0116000220:030:37
R. DahlinD101401009:061:51
M. SamuelssonD0002110026:590:36
Z. MetsaD000003+1015:380:00
L. CrevierD0002320015:030:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Ellis972.77826:26
U. Luukkonen14131.92933:34Win

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe13:35S. Reinhart13:45S. Lafferty13:48
Line 2M. Tkachuk13:13S. Bennett14:51B. Tkachuk12:29
Line 3E. Luostarinen12:35S. Vilmanis11:23A. Lundell10:22
Line 4G. Hathaway7:46B. Imama8:56L. Eller8:54
Pair 1G. Forsling20:03A. Ekblad17:26
Pair 2N. Mikkola16:25S. Jones16:01
Pair 3D. Kulikov13:33R. Gudas11:45

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson13:22P. Krebs15:01J. Doan13:40
Line 2J. Quinn12:56Z. Benson11:55N. Ostlund12:38
Line 3R. McLeod12:04K. Helenius12:35J.Kulich11:38
Line 4B. Malenstyn8:23T. Kozak9:12J. Norris8:41
Pair 1O. Power19:46Z. Metsa12:09
Pair 2M. Samuelsson22:48R. Dahlin7:15
Pair 3L. Crevier13:21O. Zellweger19:26

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 20 overs hit (45%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
FLA B. Tkachuk3.5+150-1553Under
BUF T. Thompson3.5+110-1351Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe2.5+116-1400Under
BUF J. Quinn2.5+115-1301Under
FLA M. Tkachuk2.5-125+1102Under
BUF R. Dahlin2.5-106-1204Over
FLA S. Bennett2.5+112-1301Under
FLA S. Reinhart2.5+116-1352Under
FLA A. Ekblad1.5+125-1603Over
FLA A. Lundell1.5-145+1203Over
FLA G. Forsling1.5+140-1602Over
BUF J. Doan1.5-140+1253Over
BUF J. Norris1.5+106-1252Over
BUF K. Helenius1.5-118–1Under
BUF N. Ostlund1.5+110-1403Over
BUF O. Power1.5+115-1651Under
BUF P. Krebs1.5+140-1900Under
FLA S. Jones1.5+100-1104Over
FLA S. Vilmanis1.5-105-1250Under
BUF Z. Benson1.5-130+1152Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreFLA 2.8, BUF 3.3FLA 3, BUF 5
Total goals6.18
Shots on goalFLA 25.4, BUF 28.3FLA 23, BUF 32
Win chanceBUF 59%BUF won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
FLA B. Tkachuk3.630.82132%0
BUF T. Thompson3.211.02239%1
BUF R. Dahlin3.041.00120%1
FLA S. Bennett2.810.81031%0
FLA M. Tkachuk2.821.09134%0
BUF J. Quinn2.510.75226%0
FLA C. Verhaeghe2.400.77030%0
FLA A. Lundell2.130.64122%1
FLA S. Reinhart2.120.80233%2
BUF J. Doan2.130.65124%1
BUF Z. Benson2.120.76124%0
FLA S. Jones1.840.54212%0
BUF K. Helenius1.710.43017%0
BUF J.Kulich1.620.39018%0
BUF O. Power1.610.56210%0
BUF N. Ostlund1.430.59121%1
FLA G. Forsling1.420.3107%0
BUF O. Zellweger1.460.2617%0
FLA E. Luostarinen1.320.44016%0
FLA A. Ekblad1.330.4218%0
BUF M. Samuelsson1.320.4009%0
BUF P. Krebs1.300.54216%0
BUF L. Crevier1.320.2606%0
BUF J. Norris1.220.50021%0
FLA S. Vilmanis1.000.24112%0
BUF R. McLeod1.020.56117%1
FLA N. Mikkola1.000.1905%0
FLA L. Eller0.900.2109%0
FLA S. Lafferty0.900.20011%0
BUF Z. Metsa0.800.2105%0
FLA R. Gudas0.700.1402%0
FLA G. Hathaway0.710.1508%0
BUF B. Malenstyn0.700.1607%0
FLA D. Kulikov0.700.1503%0
FLA B. Imama0.600.0705%0
BUF T. Kozak0.600.1708%0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.