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Game Recap
FLA6
CAR3
FLA beat CAR 6-3, with the chances close: 2.88 expected goals to 2.44. A. Lundell led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Bennett had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. S. Bobrovsky stopped 28 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| CAR | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 2:26FLAJ. Boqvist0.03 xG
- 1st 5:42CARS. JarvisPP0.17 xG
- 1st 9:05FLAS. Reinhart0.23 xG
- 1st 11:21FLAC. Verhaeghe0.04 xG
- 2nd 6:24CARS. Walker0.04 xG
- 2nd 17:18CARE. Robinson0.08 xG
- 3rd 4:58FLAA. Greer0.03 xG
- 3rd 9:08FLAA. LundellSH0.29 xG
- 3rd 19:53FLAS. BennettEN0.61 xG
Team Stats
FLACAR
30Shots on goal31
2.88Expected goals2.44
57Shot attempts65
235v5 shots on goal21
0/2Power play1/5
23Hits16
14Blocked shots14
10Penalty minutes6
22Giveaways20
2Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 2.88 xGCAR 2.44 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lundell | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 12:10 | 0:00 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:35 | 3:11 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:33 | 3:10 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:43 | 3:12 |
| S. Bennett | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:40 | 0:50 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:21 | 0:49 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:04 | 0:47 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:13 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:19 | 0:00 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:39 | 3:13 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:35 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 27:17 | 3:10 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 12:50 | 0:48 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 25:52 | 0:00 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:13 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:07 | 0:50 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 15:42 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 19:52 | 4:58 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 0 | 19:37 | 4:54 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:22 | 1:09 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:18 | 1:08 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:11 | 0:00 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:18 | 4:55 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:12 | 3:25 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 17:51 | 1:05 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:52 | 0:10 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:51 | 0:10 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:43 | 0:10 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:09 | 1:12 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:18 | 4:37 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:10 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:10 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:37 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 19:43 | 1:26 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:27 | 0:10 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 2.7, CAR 3.2 | FLA 6, CAR 3 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 25.9, CAR 32.0 | FLA 30, CAR 31 |
| Win chance | CAR 60% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.8 | 0 | 0.91 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.6 | 3 | 0.72 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.6 | 2 | 0.81 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.5 | 2 | 0.85 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.5 | 1 | 0.86 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.4 | 2 | 1.00 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.3 | 6 | 0.60 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.2 | 1 | 0.91 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.2 | 5 | 0.49 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.1 | 4 | 0.73 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.8 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.8 | 3 | 0.60 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.7 | 0 | 0.52 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.7 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.6 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.6 | 3 | 0.46 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.6 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.6 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.6 | 0 | 0.36 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.5 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.4 | 4 | 0.22 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.4 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.3 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.8 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 0.8 | 2 | 0.16 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.