Game Recap: FLA 5, CAR 2, December 23, 2025

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Game Recap

FLA5

FinalTue, Dec 23, 2025Every game that night

CAR2

FLA beat CAR 5-2, with the chances close: 2.89 expected goals to 2.31. S. Reinhart led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). S. Bobrovsky stopped 17 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	0	0	5	5
CAR	1	1	0	2

1st 4:11CARE. Robinson0.15 xG
2nd 1:58CARA. Svechnikov0.18 xG
3rd 3:53FLAN. Mikkola0.04 xG
3rd 6:17FLAL. Kunin0.13 xG
3rd 7:00FLAA. Lundell0.11 xG
3rd 9:57FLAS. Bennett0.11 xG
3rd 15:21FLAS. JonesPP0.10 xG

Team Stats

FLACAR

22Shots on goal19

2.89Expected goals2.31

52Shot attempts56

205v5 shots on goal17

1/4Power play0/2

32Hits35

11Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes12

17Giveaways11

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 2.89 xGCAR 2.31 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA20 on goal, 5 scored

CAR19 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Reinhart	C	0	3	3	1	2	2	+1	0	18:24	2:37
E. Luostarinen	C	0	2	2	0	4	0	0	0	16:30	0:40
S. Bennett	C	1	0	1	2	3	0	+1	0	21:09	2:38
B. Marchand	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	2	18:54	2:36
A. Lundell	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	17:24	0:42
A. Greer	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	11:31	0:00
L. Kunin	C	1	0	1	3	3	1	+1	0	8:39	0:04
N. Gregor	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	8:21	0:04
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	18:43	1:53
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:12	0:43
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	12:51	0:00
J. Studnicka	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	8:44	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	2	2	0	1	0	0	0	21:11	1:27
S. Jones	D	1	0	1	4	4	1	+2	0	23:01	2:48
N. Mikkola	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	+2	0	20:30	0:04
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	2	22:32	0:04
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	16:23	0:36
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:29	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	19	17	2	.895	59:32	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Staal	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	16:51	0:51
E. Robinson	LW	1	0	1	2	5	0	0	0	16:38	0:04
S. Aho	C	0	1	1	0	4	1	-2	0	15:43	0:55
A. Svechnikov	RW	1	0	1	3	4	0	+1	2	12:52	0:40
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	20:28	1:44
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-3	0	17:53	0:55
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	3	3	+1	4	17:28	0:04
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	16:43	1:59
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	15:59	1:15
B. Nadeau	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	12:41	1:44
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	12:28	0:37
J. Nystrom	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	14:33	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	23:34	0:04
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-2	4	20:37	0:04
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	19:43	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	3	3	2	0	0	16:13	1:44
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:14	0:55
M. Reilly	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	22	17	5	.773	60:00	Loss
P. Kochetkov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1B. Marchand15:08S. Bennett15:30A. Greer11:31

Line 2A. Lundell14:37E. Luostarinen13:48S. Reinhart12:14

Line 3E. Rodrigues12:34J. Boqvist12:51C. Verhaeghe16:42

Line 4J. Studnicka8:44N. Gregor8:17L. Kunin8:35

Pair 1G. Forsling20:02A. Ekblad17:00

Pair 2S. Jones17:17N. Mikkola16:38

Pair 3J. Petry15:00U. Balinskis14:12

CAR

Line 1T. Hall14:44M. Jankowski15:46E. Robinson14:39

Line 2N. Ehlers12:28S. Aho11:47J. Blake15:28

Line 3J. Staal13:01A. Svechnikov11:00L. Stankoven18:37

Line 4B. Nadeau10:53J. Kotkaniemi11:47

Pair 1S. Walker20:23K. Miller17:50

Pair 2J. Chatfield16:40S. Gostisbehere12:05

Pair 3J. Nystrom13:22A. Nikishin12:33

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 2.7, CAR 3.0	FLA 5, CAR 2
Total goals	5.7	7
Shots on goal	FLA 25.3, CAR 30.7	FLA 22, CAR 19
Win chance	CAR 56%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA S. Bennett	2.9	2	0.75	1	29%	1
CAR N. Ehlers	2.5	1	0.75	0	26%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.5	3	0.75	1	27%	1
FLA B. Marchand	2.5	0	0.87	1	30%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.5	1	0.88	3	35%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.5	0	0.94	1	33%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.4	1	0.74	0	27%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.3	0	0.30	0	8%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.1	0	0.60	0	23%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.0	4	0.61	1	19%	1
CAR L. Stankoven	2.0	2	0.44	0	17%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.0	0	0.47	0	17%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.9	1	0.75	0	11%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.6	3	0.38	0	8%	0
CAR B. Nadeau	1.6	0	0.31	0	14%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.6	3	0.47	0	18%	0
FLA S. Jones	1.6	4	0.42	1	10%	1
CAR K. Miller	1.5	1	0.39	0	7%	0
CAR M. Reilly	1.5	0	0.21	0	4%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.5	1	0.26	0	7%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.4	1	0.43	1	17%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.4	2	0.34	1	14%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.4	0	0.45	2	14%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.3	2	0.31	1	14%	1
FLA A. Ekblad	1.2	0	0.34	2	7%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.1	1	0.28	0	7%	0
CAR J. Nystrom	1.1	1	0.19	1	2%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.0	0	0.28	0	11%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.0	1	0.18	1	4%	1
CAR M. Jankowski	0.9	0	0.23	0	12%	0
FLA J. Studnicka	0.9	0	0.10	0	5%	0
FLA N. Gregor	0.9	1	0.13	1	7%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	0.8	0	0.23	0	10%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	0.7	1	0.17	0	4%	0
FLA L. Kunin	0.7	3	0.11	1	7%	1
FLA J. Petry	0.7	1	0.19	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.