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Game Recap
FLA2
CBJ4
CBJ beat FLA 4-2, with the chances close: 3.51 expected goals to 3.27. I. Provorov led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Greaves stopped 26 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| CBJ | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 5:08CBJI. ProvorovPP0.01 xG
- 2nd 10:50CBJM. Olivier0.09 xG
- 3rd 1:41CBJB. Jenner0.15 xG
- 3rd 9:08FLAN. Mikkola0.04 xG
- 3rd 14:44FLAS. BennettPP0.07 xG
- 3rd 18:18CBJM. OlivierEN0.87 xG
Team Stats
FLACBJ
28Shots on goal28
3.27Expected goals3.51
75Shot attempts48
205v5 shots on goal20
1/3Power play1/3
19Hits16
6Blocked shots20
8Penalty minutes8
15Giveaways13
3Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 3.27 xGCBJ 3.51 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:34 | 4:00 |
| S. Bennett | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:05 | 3:30 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:50 | 4:00 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:32 | 0:45 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:57 | 0:41 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:12 | 2:28 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:00 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:59 | 1:11 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:44 | 0:01 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 12:39 | 2:13 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:34 | 0:01 |
| S. Vilmanis | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:34 | 0:01 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:19 | 3:17 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:24 | 0:01 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:47 | 0:00 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:05 | 0:01 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 17:35 | 1:24 |
| D. Sebrango | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:04 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tarasov | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 59:00 | Loss |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Olivier | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:00 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:46 | 2:55 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:25 | 3:15 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:54 | 3:18 |
| B. Jenner | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:58 | 0:34 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:15 | 2:27 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:21 | 3:04 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:18 | 0:00 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:06 | 0:00 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:58 | 2:28 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:26 | 1:32 |
| M. Wood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:16 | 0:00 |
| I. Provorov | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 26:22 | 3:16 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:28 | 0:00 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:39 | 2:08 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 22:12 | 2:03 |
| E. Gudbranson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 22:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 12:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Greaves | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 60:00 | Win |
| E. Merzlikins | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
FLA
Line 1E. Rodrigues15:16A. Lundell15:11S. Reinhart15:38
Line 2S. Bennett13:00M. Tkachuk12:15M. Samoskevich12:48
Line 3C. Verhaeghe12:44E. Luostarinen11:35B. Marchand9:30
Line 4T. Nosek9:38S. Vilmanis9:50J. Boqvist9:38
Pair 1D. Kulikov18:57N. Mikkola18:19
Pair 2G. Forsling16:23A. Ekblad13:53
Pair 3U. Balinskis16:11D. Sebrango14:04
CBJ
Line 1M. Olivier15:12C. Sillinger15:44C. Coyle13:58
Line 2A. Fantilli15:51K. Marchenko12:36M. Marchment8:54
Line 3B. Jenner12:07S. Monahan12:23K. Johnson8:48
Line 4M. Wood10:16D. Voronkov8:30I. Lundestrom12:23
Pair 1D. Severson20:05D. Mateychuk18:34
Pair 2I. Provorov18:06E. Zamula11:28
Pair 3E. Gudbranson18:26J. Christiansen11:29
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.1, CBJ 3.2 | FLA 2, CBJ 4 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 29.0, CBJ 28.0 | FLA 28, CBJ 28 |
| Win chance | CBJ 51% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.9 | 4 | 0.81 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.9 | 3 | 1.04 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.8 | 5 | 0.99 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.5 | 1 | 0.80 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.4 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.3 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.3 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.3 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.2 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Marchment | 1.9 | 0 | 0.71 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 1.8 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| CBJ C. Coyle | 1.8 | 3 | 0.70 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.8 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.8 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.7 | 4 | 0.42 | 3 | 9% | 1 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.7 | 0 | 0.49 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 1.6 | 4 | 0.61 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.6 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.6 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.4 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.4 | 3 | 0.40 | 2 | 17% | 2 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.2 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| CBJ M. Wood | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 1.1 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Gudbranson | 1.1 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA S. Vilmanis | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.9 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Lundestrom | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.7 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA D. Sebrango | 0.6 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.6 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Zamula | 0.6 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.