Game Recap: FLA 7, CBJ 3, October 13, 2026

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Game Recap

FLA7

FinalTue, Oct 13, 2026Every game that night

CBJ3

FLA beat CBJ 7-3, with the chances close: 3.42 expected goals to 3.57. M. Tkachuk led the way with 5 points (0 G, 5 A). S. Reinhart had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. A. Schmid stopped 24 of 27.

Team Stats

FLACBJ

28Shots on goal27

3.42Expected goals3.57

63Shot attempts59

185v5 shots on goal21

4/6Power play0/2

24Hits16

13Blocked shots18

6Penalty minutes25

21Giveaways15

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 3.42 xGCBJ 3.57 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA26 on goal, 6 scored

CBJ27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	17:20	5:25
B. Tkachuk	LW	3	1	4	4	1	0	0	0	16:19	5:23
S. Reinhart	C	2	1	3	7	0	2	+2	0	19:24	6:09
C. Verhaeghe	C	2	0	2	3	0	1	+1	0	18:24	6:16
A. Lundell	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	-2	0	18:34	3:36
L. Eller	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	16:31	3:36
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	18:47	3:52
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	15:48	3:40
S. Vilmanis	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-2	0	13:25	0:57
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	10:49	0:00
B. Imama	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:00	0:00
S. Lafferty	C	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	9:30	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	4	4	3	2	2	+1	0	23:14	5:26
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	0	21:27	3:12
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	2	19:36	1:10
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+2	2	17:25	0:10
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	16:19	0:58
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	13:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Schmid	27	24	3	.889	60:00	Win
C. Black	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Coyle	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	2	16:31	1:19
C. Sillinger	C	1	0	1	1	2	2	-1	0	16:05	0:01
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	-1	0	15:39	1:27
K. Johnson	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	15:09	2:32
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	20:27	2:32
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	18:03	2:32
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	2	16:57	1:27
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	14:41	1:27
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	13:16	0:01
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:26	1:27
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	15	9:13	0:01
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	9:06	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	2	2	0	0	3	+3	4	22:36	1:20
D. Mateychuk	D	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	18:58	1:05
Z. Werenski	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	+2	0	26:16	2:48
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-2	0	18:32	0:01
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:31	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	2	13:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	23	17	6	.739	43:24	Loss
J. Greaves	4	4	0	1.000	14:04

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1E. Luostarinen11:40S. Vilmanis12:28A. Lundell11:18

Line 2C. Verhaeghe12:08S. Reinhart11:28L. Eller11:30

Line 3S. Bennett10:42M. Tkachuk10:41B. Tkachuk9:43

Line 4S. Lafferty9:26B. Imama9:56G. Hathaway9:21

Pair 1G. Forsling16:02A. Ekblad14:33

Pair 2N. Mikkola14:51S. Jones13:56

Pair 3D. Kulikov12:47U. Balinskis15:00

CBJ

Line 1M. Knies12:37A. Fantilli13:42K. Johnson11:18

Line 2V. Nichushkin10:43C. Garland12:08S. Monahan11:27

Line 3C. Coyle8:52C. Sillinger10:56M. Olivier9:12

Line 4R. Lomberg9:02D. Heinen11:36D. Voronkov9:02

Pair 1D. Severson17:04Z. Werenski17:51

Pair 2J. Christiansen12:55D. Mateychuk14:15

Pair 3E. Gudbranson14:05C. Soucy10:45

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 13 overs hit (54%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.5	+112	-125	3	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	2.5	-155	+130	4	Over
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.5	+110	-140	3	Over
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.5	-110	-105	1	Under
FLA S. Bennett	2.5	+130	-160	1	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	2.5	+125	-154	7	Over
FLA A. Lundell	1.5	-155	+120	1	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	1.5	-130	+105	1	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	1.5	-130	+105	3	Over
CBJ M. Olivier	1.5	+135	-175	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	1.5	-125	+110	3	Over
CBJ S. Monahan	1.5	+110	-140	3	Over
CBJ V. Nichushkin	1.5	-152	+125	2	Over

6 of 33 overs hit (18%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+950	-2800	0	Under
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+380	-500	0	Under
FLA B. Imama	0.5	+1500	-2800	0	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	+210	-285	3	Over
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+310	-400	0	Under
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+400	-750	0	Under
CBJ C. Sillinger	0.5	+525	-700	1	Over
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+250	-320	2	Over
CBJ D. Heinen	0.5	+850	-1400	0	Under
FLA D. Kulikov	0.5	+2200	-5000	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+800	-2800	1	Over
CBJ D. Severson	0.5	+850	-2000	0	Under
CBJ D. Voronkov	0.5	+430	-750	0	Under
CBJ E. Gudbranson	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+525	-750	0	Under
FLA G. Forsling	0.5	+1200	-2800	0	Under
FLA G. Hathaway	0.5	+1500	-2500	0	Under
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.5	+2200	-10000	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+320	-550	1	Over
FLA L. Eller	0.5	+750	-1600	0	Under
CBJ M. Olivier	0.5	+550	-750	0	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	+200	-240	0	Under
FLA N. Mikkola	0.5	+2000	-3500	0	Under
CBJ R. Lomberg	0.5	+1200	-1600	0	Under
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+260	-300	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+700	-900	0	Under
FLA S. Lafferty	0.5	+775	-2500	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+360	-550	0	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	+190	-250	2	Over
FLA S. Vilmanis	0.5	+1100	-3500	0	Under
FLA U. Balinskis	0.5	+1100	-3500	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+310	-470	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	+330	-450	0	Under

7 of 16 overs hit (44%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+280	-425	0	Under
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+265	-380	1	Over
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	+150	-190	1	Over
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+190	-265	1	Over
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+260	-450	0	Under
CBJ C. Sillinger	0.5	+350	-450	0	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+185	-190	0	Under
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+295	-425	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+155	-210	0	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	+106	-125	5	Over
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+175	-220	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+154	-165	4	Over
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+235	-330	0	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	+150	-190	1	Over
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+220	-280	1	Over
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	-155	+140	0	Under

10 of 16 overs hit (63%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
CBJ Z. Werenski	1.5	+170	-220	0	Under
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+210	-280	0	Under
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+130	-160	1	Over
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	-132	+115	4	Over
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+100	-130	1	Over
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
CBJ C. Sillinger	0.5	+190	-235	1	Over
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	-110	+105	2	Over
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+175	-240	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	-105	-115	1	Over
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	-190	+155	5	Over
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	-115	-110	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+110	-120	4	Over
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+135	-170	0	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	-135	+115	3	Over
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+115	-145	1	Over

5 of 17 overs hit (29%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	+300	-350	3	Over
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+270	-500	0	Under
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+270	-375	1	Over
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CBJ D. Voronkov	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+340	-375	0	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	+200	-215	4	Over
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+340	-625	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+275	-350	2	Over
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	+250	-300	2	Over
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	+175	-200	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
FLA A. Schmid	23.5	-130	-102	24	Over
CBJ C. Talbot	23.5	-114	-114	17	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
CBJ Z. Werenski	1.5	-165	+115	3	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 2.7, CBJ 3.2	FLA 7, CBJ 3
Total goals	5.9	10
Shots on goal	FLA 25.3, CBJ 28.7	FLA 28, CBJ 27
Win chance	CBJ 58%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.7	3	1.16	0	22%	0
FLA B. Tkachuk	3.4	4	0.76	4	29%	3
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.7	1	1.03	5	32%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.6	1	0.72	0	28%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.6	2	0.85	0	31%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.2	7	0.80	3	33%	2
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.2	3	0.68	2	27%	2
FLA A. Lundell	2.0	1	0.58	1	20%	0
FLA S. Jones	1.9	3	0.55	4	14%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.8	1	0.76	1	24%	0
CBJ V. Nichushkin	1.8	2	0.61	1	25%	0
CBJ M. Knies	1.6	1	0.79	0	27%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.6	3	0.55	1	20%	1
CBJ S. Monahan	1.6	3	0.59	0	20%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	1	0.43	1	14%	1
CBJ D. Severson	1.5	0	0.52	2	11%	0
CBJ C. Garland	1.5	2	0.44	0	17%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.5	0	0.33	0	10%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.4	2	0.42	0	10%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.4	0	0.39	0	17%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.3	1	0.42	0	15%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.3	0	0.37	0	16%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.2	3	0.39	1	11%	1
FLA U. Balinskis	1.2	0	0.23	0	7%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.0	0	0.19	0	6%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.0	1	0.22	0	5%	0
CBJ D. Heinen	1.0	0	0.33	0	14%	0
FLA S. Vilmanis	1.0	1	0.25	0	11%	0
CBJ R. Lomberg	0.9	3	0.17	0	8%	0
FLA S. Lafferty	0.9	2	0.22	0	12%	0
FLA L. Eller	0.9	0	0.21	1	9%	0
CBJ C. Soucy	0.9	1	0.19	0	6%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.9	1	0.13	0	2%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	0.8	0	0.16	0	5%	0
FLA G. Hathaway	0.7	1	0.14	0	8%	0
FLA B. Imama	0.6	1	0.07	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.