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Game Recap
FLA0
CGY3
CGY beat FLA 3-0 despite fewer good chances: 2.01 expected goals to 2.51. M. Backlund led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Coleman had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. D. Wolf stopped 32 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CGY | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 8:57CGYN. Kadri0.18 xG
- 2nd 19:05CGYB. Coleman0.10 xG
- 3rd 6:17CGYM. Backlund0.01 xG
Team Stats
FLACGY
32Shots on goal27
2.51Expected goals2.01
66Shot attempts49
295v5 shots on goal21
0/3Power play0/2
30Hits16
11Blocked shots16
6Penalty minutes8
21Giveaways13
9Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 2.51 xGCGY 2.01 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:00 | 2:58 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:23 | 1:02 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:13 | 1:03 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:07 | 3:02 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:15 | 2:57 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:04 | 2:58 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 | 0:00 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:02 | 1:02 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:57 | 0:42 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:20 | 0:29 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:01 | 0:29 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:30 | 0:29 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:02 | 0:16 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 22:17 | 2:27 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 20:42 | 0:00 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:25 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:24 | 1:46 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:45 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 60:00 | Loss |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Backlund | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 19:47 | 2:22 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:50 | 2:42 |
| N. Kadri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:52 | 2:09 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:22 | 1:46 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:10 | 1:18 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:22 | 2:01 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 1:38 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:55 | 1:51 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:08 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:14 | 0:00 |
| W. Duehr | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:02 | 0:00 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:50 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:36 | 2:21 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 21:19 | 1:12 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:09 | 0:40 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 19:03 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:15 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.3, CGY 2.8 | FLA 0, CGY 3 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 30.2, CGY 28.6 | FLA 32, CGY 27 |
| Win chance | FLA 57% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 3.0 | 2 | 1.14 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| CGY N. Kadri | 2.9 | 4 | 0.79 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.9 | 2 | 0.87 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.6 | 4 | 1.03 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.4 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.3 | 2 | 0.48 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.2 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.9 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 1.9 | 5 | 0.49 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.9 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.9 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.9 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 1.8 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.7 | 0 | 0.75 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.7 | 4 | 0.43 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.6 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.6 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.5 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.1 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 1.0 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.0 | 3 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 1.0 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.9 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY J. Pelletier | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY W. Duehr | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 0.6 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.5 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.