Game Recap: FLA 1, CHI 3, November 21, 2024

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Game Recap

FLA1

FinalThu, Nov 21, 2024Every game that night

CHI3

CHI beat FLA 3-1, with the chances close: 2.66 expected goals to 2.51. FLA outshot CHI 33 to 20. N. Foligno led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Barkov had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. P. Mrazek stopped 32 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	0	1	0	1
CHI	1	1	1	3

1st 2:46CHIT. TeravainenPP0.61 xG
2nd 10:07CHIC. Smith0.14 xG
2nd 10:41FLAS. Reinhart0.01 xG
3rd 19:00CHIN. FolignoEN0.73 xG

Team Stats

FLACHI

33Shots on goal20

2.51Expected goals2.66

66Shot attempts33

245v5 shots on goal16

0/2Power play1/1

18Hits19

8Blocked shots19

2Penalty minutes4

10Giveaways20

8Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 2.51 xGCHI 2.66 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA33 on goal, 1 scored

CHI17 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Reinhart	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	22:27	2:52
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	20:37	2:50
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	5	0	1	-2	0	20:13	3:00
A. Barkov	C	0	0	0	7	0	1	0	0	19:56	2:37
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	5	0	1	-2	0	18:36	1:23
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	18:12	1:08
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	15:21	1:00
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:54	0:00
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:45	0:00
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:21	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	8:45	0:00
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:36	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	25:17	2:12
G. Forsling	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	22:32	0:00
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	18:49	0:00
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	18:01	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	16:16	1:48
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	14:42	1:10

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	19	17	2	.895	58:41	Loss
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Foligno	LW	1	1	2	2	6	0	+1	0	17:08	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	13:57	0:59
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	12:54	0:59
C. Smith	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+2	0	12:39	0:00
P. Maroon	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	2	9:08	0:00
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	19:32	0:59
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:58	0:00
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	17:57	0:00
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	15:54	0:00
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:07	0:59
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	14:36	0:00
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:58	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	26:34	0:59
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	25:57	0:00
A. Martinez	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	22:25	0:00
N. Allan	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	18:04	0:00
T. Brodie	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:53	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	2	12:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Mrazek	33	32	1	.970	60:00	Win
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSpencer Knight CHI Faces FLA, his team until Mar 202517 saves on 19

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 3.4, CHI 2.4	FLA 1, CHI 3
Total goals	5.7	4
Shots on goal	FLA 31.8, CHI 25.4	FLA 33, CHI 20
Win chance	FLA 65%	CHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA C. Verhaeghe	3.2	2	0.88	0	35%	0
FLA M. Tkachuk	3.0	5	1.05	0	32%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.8	4	1.05	1	41%	1
FLA S. Bennett	2.5	5	0.70	0	27%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.5	0	0.74	0	22%	0
FLA A. Barkov	2.4	7	1.09	0	30%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.3	2	0.49	0	21%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.1	2	0.56	0	21%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.1	0	0.63	0	20%	0
CHI T. Hall	2.0	3	0.54	0	21%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.8	2	0.47	1	10%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.6	1	0.47	1	20%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.6	1	0.41	1	9%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.6	2	0.53	1	20%	1
CHI N. Foligno	1.6	2	0.42	2	17%	1
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.5	2	0.35	0	17%	0
CHI C. Smith	1.4	3	0.28	1	14%	1
CHI J. Dickinson	1.3	0	0.36	0	17%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.3	0	0.38	0	15%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.2	1	0.27	0	13%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.2	1	0.22	0	3%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.2	1	0.36	0	16%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.2	1	0.29	0	11%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.1	1	0.23	0	6%	0
CHI J. Anderson	1.1	0	0.28	0	12%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.1	1	0.24	0	11%	0
CHI A. Martinez	1.1	0	0.24	0	5%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.1	1	0.22	0	3%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.1	1	0.27	1	4%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	1.1	0	0.27	0	5%	0
FLA T. Nosek	1.0	0	0.24	0	8%	0
FLA N. Schmidt	1.0	0	0.26	0	5%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	0.8	1	0.18	0	2%	0
CHI P. Maroon	0.8	0	0.24	1	9%	0
CHI N. Allan	0.6	0	0.24	0	3%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.5	1	0.22	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.