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Game Recap
FLA3
FinalSun, Oct 25, 2026Every game that night
CHI2

FLA beat CHI 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.93 expected goals to 3.08. FLA outshot CHI 33 to 21. S. Vilmanis had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. A. Schmid stopped 19 of 21.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
FLA2013
CHI1102
  1. 1st 2:34CHIR. Greene0.26 xG
  2. 1st 6:49FLAS. Vilmanis0.54 xG
  3. 1st 14:21FLAM. TkachukPP0.09 xG
  4. 2nd 11:15CHIR. Kantserov0.10 xG
  5. 3rd 17:37FLAL. Eller0.06 xG

Team Stats

FLACHI
33Shots on goal21
3.93Expected goals3.08
60Shot attempts59
265v5 shots on goal11
1/4Power play0/7
33Hits18
15Blocked shots9
16Penalty minutes8
15Giveaways19
3Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 3.93 xGCHI 3.08 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdCHI goal, 2:34FLA goal, 6:49FLA goal, 14:21CHI goal, 11:15FLA goal, 17:37

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA34 on goal, 3 scored
CHI21 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. ReinhartC011220+1020:063:58
M. TkachukLW101321-1218:273:35
C. VerhaegheC011311+2416:392:10
L. EllerC101201+1016:200:41
B. TkachukLW011151-1014:482:33
S. VilmanisLW101420+1013:040:21
S. BennettC000310-1019:161:30
A. LundellC000210+1016:031:41
E. LuostarinenC0001210014:340:35
G. HathawayRW000041-108:570:00
B. ImamaLW000101-124:530:22
C. SchwindtRW000110-104:270:00
S. JonesD011421+1024:552:15
A. EkbladD0111230222:312:08
G. ForslingD0002120023:120:08
N. MikkolaD000222+1421:320:35
R. GudasD000130-1212:300:00
D. KulikovD000020-1011:510:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Schmid21192.90559:55Win
C. Black000–0:00

CHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. BedardC0112020023:098:36
R. KantserovRW1012100221:128:41
P. KaneRW0112000020:218:09
R. GreeneC1013200014:402:53
A. MangiapaneLW011000+108:460:00
T. BertuzziLW000300-1222:228:19
T. TeravainenC0000100018:578:12
A. FrondellC000204-1016:472:33
F. NazarC0000100015:312:31
J. GreenwayLW0000300013:300:00
R. DonatoC0001310012:362:11
C. SmithRW000210+129:460:00
K. KorchinskiD011000+2012:410:00
A. LevshunovD000250-2020:182:55
A. VlasicD0001020217:330:15
W. KaiserD000000-2015:360:05
I. ColeD0000000015:250:00
S. RinzelD000110+2015:070:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Knight33303.90957:38Loss
A. Soderblom000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe12:53S. Vilmanis12:43S. Reinhart12:31
Line 2S. Bennett14:41M. Tkachuk12:35B. Tkachuk12:01
Line 3L. Eller9:50E. Luostarinen9:14A. Lundell8:17
Line 4G. Hathaway4:26B. Imama4:31C. Schwindt4:08
Pair 1S. Jones14:20N. Mikkola14:28
Pair 2G. Forsling14:45A. Ekblad13:43
Pair 3D. Kulikov10:30R. Gudas11:24

CHI

Line 1T. Bertuzzi11:41A. Frondell12:42J. Greenway11:10
Line 2P. Kane9:56C. Bedard10:20R. Kantserov10:18
Line 3R. Donato10:20F. Nazar9:25T. Teravainen7:07
Line 4A. Mangiapane8:46C. Smith8:38R. Greene8:43
Pair 1I. Cole12:13A. Vlasic13:58
Pair 2S. Rinzel14:00K. Korchinski12:36
Pair 3A. Levshunov13:54W. Kaiser11:13

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 15 overs hit (53%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
FLA B. Tkachuk3.5+122-1301Under
CHI C. Bedard2.5-110-1062Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe2.5+110-1153Over
FLA M. Tkachuk2.5-104-1053Over
CHI P. Kane2.5+135-1502Under
FLA S. Bennett2.5+120-1403Over
FLA S. Reinhart2.5+108-1252Under
CHI A. Frondell1.5-130+1152Over
FLA A. Lundell1.5-165+1302Over
FLA E. Luostarinen1.5-115-1251Under
CHI F. Nazar1.5-105-1180Under
FLA G. Forsling1.5-110-1102Over
FLA S. Jones1.5-140+1154Over
CHI T. Bertuzzi1.5+105-1353Over
CHI T. Teravainen1.5+165-1900Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamSeth Jones FLA Faces CHI, his team until Feb 20251 A, 4 SOG
  • Old teamSpencer Knight CHI Faces FLA, his team until Mar 202530 saves on 33

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreFLA 3.2, CHI 2.7FLA 3, CHI 2
Total goals5.95
Shots on goalFLA 28.3, CHI 23.6FLA 33, CHI 21
Win chanceFLA 58%FLA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
FLA B. Tkachuk3.410.80130%0
CHI C. Bedard2.721.01131%0
FLA S. Bennett2.730.75029%0
FLA M. Tkachuk2.631.08131%1
FLA S. Reinhart2.620.91136%0
FLA C. Verhaeghe2.530.82131%0
CHI P. Kane2.420.96127%0
FLA A. Lundell2.120.61021%0
CHI A. Frondell2.020.60019%0
CHI R. Kantserov1.920.71128%1
FLA S. Jones1.840.59112%0
CHI T. Bertuzzi1.730.74028%0
CHI F. Nazar1.600.53020%0
FLA E. Luostarinen1.510.48017%0
CHI S. Rinzel1.510.2906%0
FLA G. Forsling1.520.37010%0
FLA S. Vilmanis1.440.36116%1
FLA L. Eller1.420.38115%1
CHI R. Donato1.410.46019%0
FLA A. Ekblad1.410.45110%0
CHI A. Levshunov1.320.3104%0
CHI J. Greenway1.100.29012%0
CHI T. Teravainen1.100.57019%0
FLA N. Mikkola1.120.2407%0
FLA C. Schwindt1.010.26011%0
CHI A. Vlasic1.010.2804%0
CHI W. Kaiser1.000.2606%0
CHI R. Greene1.030.29112%1
CHI C. Smith0.920.23010%0
CHI I. Cole0.800.2504%0
CHI K. Korchinski0.800.1414%0
FLA R. Gudas0.810.1803%0
CHI A. Mangiapane0.800.26112%0
FLA G. Hathaway0.800.1709%0
FLA B. Imama0.710.0906%0
FLA D. Kulikov0.700.1804%0

Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.