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Game Recap
FLA1
COL3
COL beat FLA 3-1, with the chances close: 3.06 expected goals to 3.15. D. Toews led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Tkachuk had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. M. Blackwood stopped 26 of 27.
Team Stats
FLACOL
27Shots on goal34
3.15Expected goals3.06
56Shot attempts60
155v5 shots on goal24
0/3Power play0/4
24Hits19
13Blocked shots13
6Penalty minutes6
10Giveaways8
6Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 3.15 xGCOL 3.06 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:25 | 4:54 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:07 | 0:55 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:11 | 0:00 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:29 | 4:40 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:14 | 4:38 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:49 | 4:43 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 16:55 | 1:22 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:27 | 1:20 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:30 | 0:00 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:33 | 1:11 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:12 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:12 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:26 | 0:17 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:58 | 0:16 |
| A. Boqvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:34 | 4:24 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:20 | 0:00 |
| T. Bjornfot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:29 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 1:20 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 33 | 31 | 2 | .939 | 58:53 | Loss |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Rantanen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:04 | 6:36 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:25 | 6:23 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:04 | 5:57 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:28 | 1:25 |
| J. Parssinen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:26 | 2:03 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:50 | 5:40 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:02 | 2:19 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:00 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Innala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:21 | 0:00 |
| T. Felhaber | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:05 | 0:00 |
| D. Toews | D | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 26:19 | 1:52 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 26:46 | 6:12 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 24:53 | 1:33 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:04 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:24 | 0:00 |
| K. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 27 | 26 | 1 | .963 | 60:00 | Win |
| T. Miner | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.1, COL 3.3 | FLA 1, COL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 29.1, COL 29.6 | FLA 27, COL 34 |
| Win chance | COL 53% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 3.8 | 3 | 1.46 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 3.1 | 5 | 1.14 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| COL M. Rantanen | 2.7 | 3 | 1.21 | 1 | 39% | 1 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.5 | 3 | 0.75 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.5 | 7 | 0.91 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.4 | 6 | 0.95 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.4 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.3 | 1 | 1.02 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.1 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.1 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.9 | 0 | 0.58 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.9 | 4 | 0.62 | 3 | 11% | 2 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.9 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.7 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| COL J. Drouin | 1.6 | 4 | 0.78 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.5 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.4 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.3 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL C. Mittelstadt | 1.3 | 3 | 0.61 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.0 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA A. Boqvist | 0.9 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL K. Middleton | 0.8 | 1 | 0.06 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.7 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL J. Parssinen | 0.7 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA T. Bjornfot | 0.6 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| COL J. Innala | 0.4 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.