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Game Recap
FLA4
DAL0
FLA beat DAL 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 2.78 expected goals to 1.55. FLA outshot DAL 23 to 15. B. Marchand led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). S. Bobrovsky stopped 15 of 15.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| DAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 2nd 0:19FLAA. Lundell0.07 xG
- 2nd 5:45FLAS. Bennett0.17 xG
- 2nd 19:45FLAB. MarchandPP0.19 xG
- 3rd 17:12FLAB. MarchandEN0.54 xG
Team Stats
FLADAL
23Shots on goal15
2.78Expected goals1.55
53Shot attempts42
155v5 shots on goal13
1/3Power play0/3
22Hits13
13Blocked shots18
13Penalty minutes23
17Giveaways16
3Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 2.78 xGDAL 1.55 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Marchand | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:44 | 1:17 |
| A. Lundell | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:22 | 1:24 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:56 | 1:17 |
| S. Bennett | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:51 | 1:05 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:26 | 1:12 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:10 | 1:14 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:41 | 2:22 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:44 | 1:18 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:33 | 2:08 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:24 | 0:59 |
| J. Studnicka | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:05 | 0:45 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7:33 | 0:37 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:15 | 1:17 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:16 | 1:08 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 2 | 23:13 | 1:12 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 22:43 | 1:02 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:45 | 0:56 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:19 | 0:47 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 15 | 15 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 22:12 | 5:29 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:55 | 5:18 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:49 | 4:38 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:37 | 2:02 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 | 3:53 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:00 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:38 | 1:17 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12:05 | 0:37 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:48 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:32 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:50 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24:20 | 3:41 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 22:07 | 2:13 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 22:00 | 0:17 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:26 | 0:10 |
| A. Petrovic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 12 | 14:47 | 0:00 |
| K. Capobianco | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 22 | 19 | 3 | .864 | 56:59 | Loss |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
FLA
Line 1C. Verhaeghe12:56S. Bennett13:41B. Marchand11:32
Line 2A. Greer14:26M. Samoskevich12:25E. Rodrigues12:06
Line 3S. Reinhart12:55A. Lundell12:01E. Luostarinen11:48
Line 4J. Studnicka7:20N. Gregor6:56J. Boqvist7:25
Pair 1A. Ekblad17:33G. Forsling17:02
Pair 2S. Jones16:28N. Mikkola16:02
Pair 3J. Petry11:42U. Balinskis11:32
DAL
Line 1R. Hintz10:52J. Robertson12:59J. Benn10:29
Line 2M. Bourque11:23J. Hryckowian10:45M. Duchene13:38
Line 3W. Johnston14:15M. Rantanen12:54S. Steel11:34
Line 4R. Faksa9:50O. Bäck8:25C. Blackwell8:23
Pair 1E. Lindell17:12M. Heiskanen16:15
Pair 2A. Petrovic14:47T. Harley16:43
Pair 3K. Capobianco12:54I. Lyubushkin12:32
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 2.8, DAL 2.9 | FLA 4, DAL 0 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 29.1, DAL 25.5 | FLA 23, DAL 15 |
| Win chance | DAL 51% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.9 | 0 | 1.01 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.8 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.6 | 2 | 0.83 | 3 | 29% | 2 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.5 | 0 | 0.74 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.5 | 3 | 0.85 | 2 | 34% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.4 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.3 | 0 | 1.01 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.2 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.2 | 3 | 0.61 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.0 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.0 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 1.9 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 1.9 | 0 | 0.76 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.7 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.7 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.6 | 0 | 0.47 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL A. Petrovic | 1.4 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.4 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.4 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.2 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA J. Studnicka | 1.1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.0 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA N. Gregor | 1.0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA J. Petry | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL K. Capobianco | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 0.7 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.